This isn’t another Nico Rosberg versus Lewis Hamilton title decider permutation article, for that has been covered sufficiently by others.
The bottom line is that the German can place anywhere on the podium at Abu Dhabi and he will become World Champion. Conversely, it’s appropriate to discuss the unlikely event of Rosberg snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Rosberg is on a hiding to nothing irrespective of the outcome, with nine victories – and the distinct possibility of a tenth this weekend, ostensibly insufficient in the eyes of many to legitimise a maiden title.
Apparently, no matter how much winning the German has accomplished, it’s entirely moot since his teammate has endured some bad luck this season, rendering the successes ‘artificial.’
The notion that Hamilton would have been absolutely victorious at all events where setbacks were endured at some point throughout the weekend, is a maddening one which smacks of incredulity.
His supporters can’t fathom the prospect that Rosberg has always been on hand to pick up the pieces, as though unfairly so. It remains that the Briton has failed to finish on just two occasions, including the calamitous Spanish Grand Prix where his teammate was collateral damage, despite the supposed gross misfortunes which have blighted his charge.
And yet, Hamilton boasts sixteen podiums to Rosberg’s fifteen.
Rosberg’s second placing at each of the past three events has only infuriated Hamilton fans further, as though doing exactly as required. In necessarily precarious situations such as Brazil, where many had dismissed his prospects – a wet weather ‘pretender’ seemingly on the basis of his poor outings at Monaco and Britain.
He still gleaned a podium, which for Hamilton supporters is tantamount to mocking the status of champion.
Jenson Button didn’t claim victory following the sixth round of his 2009 title campaign, indeed the Briton extracted just two further podiums across the balance of the season, yet nobody begrudged his worthiness.
Notwithstanding the fairytale circumstances surrounding his success, Button’s efforts in the closing stages, presiding over his constantly diminishing points’ surplus, were commensurate to Rosberg’s in recent times.
For all of the aforementioned, the job still needs to be done on Sunday evening. It’s undeniable that a Rosberg triumph will elicit polarising views. There will be the deniers. An analogy could be drawn from the recent United States presidential outcome, with Donald Trump’s unforeseen rise giving way to a sense of, “oh well, life moves on.”
If and when Rosberg is anointed, perhaps he will instantly earn the respect of critics, the tangible sight of the 31-year-old realising what his father did before him causing those to accept the reality.
Should hardship befall Rosberg at the final hurdle, many will consider this as redressing the reliability imbalance – the same one which existed in Hamilton’s favour across the preceding two seasons, and argue that the right man, if the latter amasses enough points, became champion.
Equally, the line would be blurred whether the German was robbed if he is unwittingly eliminated and denied the championship he has led for the greater portion.
Will we look upon the German as damaged goods if he can’t conclude the deal for any reason? It might represent his greatest opportunity to defy the critics, for nobody can be certain who will emerge with the most competitive package amid the regulation upheaval. He entered this season with many question marks surrounding his credentials, thus surely whatever occurs on Sunday won’t erase what remains a most compelling campaign, one where Rosberg has made his own luck.
The history books for each season lists one driver as champion, if Rosberg’s number is up, nobody is going to look upon his name in years to come and ask, how so?
anon
Guest
"You’re probably right in that Schumacher would have had a lot of victories, though it would have been helped by having his teammate allow him past race after race like Rubens and the like were made to do for him. " It amazes me how many people say this like it's fact. I can only remember Barrichello ever moving over TWICE to allow Schumacher to improve his position, and only won of those was for a race win (Austria 2002). You obviously didn't watch that era very closely. I can also remember Schumacher moving over to let Irvine win at Malaysia 1999 and Schumacher moving over to let Barrichello win at Indy 2002. Massa gave up a win for Alonso in Germany 2010. Massa took a gearbox grid penalty in Brazil 2012 to move Alonso up one lousy spot on the grid. Plus many instances of Massa being forbidden to pass Alonso for position despite being on quicker tyres. I think Monza 2012 Massa had to move aside for Alonso too. None of that rubbish happened during the Schuamcher-Barrichello years because Schumacher almost always destroyed Barrichello. When Schumacher was winning the cry was that he had too big an advantage having an inferior teammate. When Alonso wasn't winning at Ferrari the cry was that Alonso needed a fast teammate in order to take points off of the opposition. So which is it? Hamilton got a podium due to team order in Malaysia 2013. It was the second race for Hamilton at Mercedes and they wanted to placate him I guess. Ever since then we've seen Rosberg abide by team orders that help Hamilton, and Hamilton summarily ignore team orders that help Rosberg in any way. So Mercedes to fix results and have done so in the past, but since they have had the most dominant cars of all time since 2014 they've been able to risk letting their drivers bang wheels at the front because winning the drivers and constructors championship has been inevitable.
anon
Guest
Schumacher won with an inferior car in 1994 as well. The 1994 car with the Ford engine was worse than the 1995 car with the Renault as in the Williams. Schumacher effectively lost 40 points (100 points today) through bogus and heavy handed penalties. He took Hill out to win the championship, but the best driver was awarded the championship in the end.
Bayden Westerweller
Roar Guru
The context and the variables are always going to be different across each era, thus it's impossible to say whether it'd have panned out differently with certain drivers or teams in the position Mercedes has found itself since 2014.
Bayden Westerweller
Roar Guru
Conversely, what a relief that Hamilton hasn't realised 15+ Grands Prix victories each season, that'd have been unbearable! Hamilton really needs to claim at least one title with an inferior package to legitimise any comparison with Schumacher - as the German did in 1995 & 2000.
Bayden Westerweller
Roar Guru
His demeanour in drivers' conference with Nico already suggests that he believes his misfortunes will be the deciding factor rather than Nico getting the job done.
steve
Guest
I will be most interested to see how Lewis reacts and what he says should Nico get up for the title.
steve
Guest
You're probably right in that Schumacher would have had a lot of victories, though it would have been helped by having his teammate allow him past race after race like Rubens and the like were made to do for him. Neither Nico or Lewis have had the benefit of Mercedes subjecting us to blatant race fixing like it was in his Ferrari days.
Bayden Westerweller
Roar Guru
So long as Lewis doesn't blame Muhammed Ali's passing for his loss, as Heritier Lumumba has cited as the primary factor in his recent issues...
Jawad Yaqub
Roar Guru
The sun dancing off, just nicely. A light bluish hue coming from the circuit run-off.
anon
Guest
23 wins on account of being in the most dominant car of all time since 2014 and having an inconsistent teammate. Schumacher in his prime would have easily reeled off 50 wins in the past 3 seasons, possibly as many as 55. Hip Hop has only won 30 (most likely 31 on Sunday night). Rosberg has had 20. Hamilton's performances should be at least as complete as Schumacher's in 2002 and 2004. Schumacher would have won the first 13 races of the season if Montoya didn't take him out under the safety car at Monaco in 2004. Those are the kind of numbers Hamilton should have been putting up if he wanted to be in the Schumacher conversation. In fact, Hamilton should be even MORE complete than Schumacher given his car is much more dominant than either the 02 or 04 Ferrari, plus he has the advantage of never getting stuck in slow traffic with DRS. In addition, Hamilton is not punished as severely for his routine errors since gravel run off don't really exist in problem areas any more, unlike in Schumacher's day. Hamilton has fallen well short of the performance benchmarks set by Schumacher.
Bayden Westerweller
Roar Guru
Not many drivers who have claimed as many Grands Prix victories as Rosberg don't count themselves World Champions. Nigel Mansell likely came as close prior to his breakthrough, not least on account of his age and hardships endured once he finally earned a much deserved title. The Sky crew reaction will be priceless if their man can't prevail. The lights will have clearly blinded Hamilton just as the sun did at Baku, and that will somehow excuse an entire season...
Bayden Westerweller
Roar Guru
You're not alone in that sentiment! The Croft and co. love in for Lewis would undoubtedly reach unparalleled levels. What will be intriguing is the scenery if Nico holds on, how magnanimous Lewis is, though ultimately - the repressed and forlorn Sky crew!
Jawad Yaqub
Roar Guru
He won't be damaged goods as such, but the history books will look unfavourbly upon him for not adding the world champion moniker to his CV - boasting a pretty solid 23 GP victories. As for the fans and media, they should all be excited for the prospect of a new world champion being crowned after six or so years. How I'd love to mute the TV commentary on Sunday and broadcast our own (neutral) feed!
steve
Guest
I'm certainly not at all looking to the aftermath if Lewis gets up again for another title. I certainly wont be watching any of the after race stuff if he does. I can already predict the over the top adulation and commentary, seeing the schoolgirl giddiness for Lewis from the Sky commentators. Its already making me sick thinking about it. Cmon Nico!
Bayden Westerweller
Roar Guru
If Rosberg can handle the pressure on Sunday, I believe many will retrospectively reassess his general credibility, let alone ensuing champion status - as you say that you'll believe it when you see it. You mention his family, surely drivers who have reached this stage are ultimately more prone to being content to be safe in one piece with a spouse and child(ren) to return to, thus Nico won't dwell too considerably on Sunday's outcome if it's undesirable. I shudder to imagine the pandemonium if Lewis prevails, the calls for his knighting will be imminent. As it is, to be done with this era regardless of the champion from a dominance perspective will represent the greatest elation.
anon
Guest
I have no faith in Rosberg to hold it together or in his car holding up. I'll believe it when I see it on Sunday night. Rosberg's mentality has been great thus far, and I don't think it deeply matters to himself in the scheme of things whether he's champion or not. He won't get credit win or lose the championship on Sunday, he's a family man now, he's not driving for his legacy like Hamilton is doing. Assuming Rosberg has no mechanical failures, the equation couldn't be simpler. Even if he starts at the back of the grid he should easily be able to finish on the podium being in the most dominant car in the history of the sport. Abu Dhabi is an easy track to pass on with DRS and Mercedes 2 second per lap advantage over rivals when the wick is turned up. Should Hamilton win the championship the British media will be insufferable claiming it's one of the all-time great championships to win the final 4 races of the season to claim the championship. Whatever happens, it will fantastic on Sunday night to close the chapter on the last three seasons which have been the worst period in the history of F1.
Bayden Westerweller
Roar Guru
The greatest threat to becoming champion if he doesn't this weekend is as much on the threat of a new, or old force emerging next season, rather than being broken by any failure to capitalise now.
steve
Guest
If he doesn't win it from here, then he never will. Got my fingers crossed for him.