The first half of the NBL season has flown by and with nothing separating teams on the ladder it’s time to go over how each team has fared over nine rounds of competition.
Sydney Kings
Record and position: 9-6 (1st)
Grade: A
It’s been a dream start to the season for the Kings and even though they have suffered some recent losses, they still sit at the top of the table with no real signs of slowing.
The Kings have had an incredibly tough schedule over the last few weeks, playing away games and doing lots of travel so losses are understandable.
While concentration lapses on defence have been an issue, they have shown enough to insert themselves as serious contenders for the championship.
Key player: Brad Newley
It could be questioned why Kevin Lisch isn’t the Kings’ key man, but Newley has absolutely lit up the NBL in the last month.
His shooting has been lights out for the most part and after a slow start he has put up a couple of 30 point games to now be in the top five for scoring.
He has filled his role in the Kings side admirably, shown Andrej Lemanis on more than a few occasions he should have probably been at Rio and always been there at crucial times for the Kings.
The big question: Can they win on the road in the finals?
‘If they finish first then who cares?’ is a line which has been thrown around a bit, but the problem is nothing is certain in this league, let alone finishing first.
The Kings biggest weakness this year has been winning away from Homebush and it might come to bite them once the finals arrive.
Pre-season prediction: 2nd
New prediction: Minor premiers/premiers
The Kings have been the best team so far this season. With attacking options all over the court and enough experience, they will finish in the top four.
If they get home court advantage, it’s hard to see an opposition team marching in and stealing victory.
Illawarra Hawks
Record and position: 7-7 (2nd)
Grade: B-
It’s been a weird start to the season for the Hawks, who came out of the blocks firing, then lost a number of games and now find themselves in second on the table.
At one point, they found themselves at the bottom of the table and looked like the worst team in the competition by a considerable margin.
All that has changed though, with their form flipping on its head. The Hawks have broken their 25-game losing streak in Perth, won some other big games and find themselves back in the championship picture.
Key player: Rotnei Clarke
The 2014 NBL MVP who has spent time in Europe before making his return to the NBL had a very quiet start to the season.
With the exception of the Hawks’ opening rout of Adelaide, Clarke’s form had gotten to a point where there were rumblings of him being sacked.
However, a move to come off the bench has changed him and with a number of big-scoring games, he will be the man to take the Hawks to a high finish.
The big question: Is their form a front?
The problem, which was showcased by their loss at home to the Kings in Round 9 is the fact that this league is incredibly close and sitting in second place really means virtually nothing.
While the loss came after a very tough road trip, whether the Hawks can keep their form going into the second half of the season is debatable.
They have the offence to do so, but whether their defence will hold up against the best teams is another question.
Pre-season prediction: 7th
New prediction: 5th
The Hawks were underestimated in the pre-season, as shown by the last couple of weeks. Whether they slump again is still up for debate, and it’s difficult to justify why they will make the finals, but they will be a lot closer than originally thought.
Brisbane Bullets
Record and position: 7-6 (3rd)
Grade: A-
For a team who haven’t been in the league for eight years to immediately contend for the championship is impressive to say the least.
They started the season with a first up win but then lost some games, struggling at the offensive end of the court.
It was always going to improve though with their guard combination firing, Daniel Kickert adding plenty in the paint and their defence being consistent.
Whether they can keep it going to the end of the season remains to be seen, but the club are in-form and sitting third on the ladder, something not to be laughed at.
Key player: Torrey Craig
Craig has been everywhere for Brisbane so far this year. He has consistently put up big numbers and sits right up the pointy end for both points and rebounds per game.
It’s hardly a surprise after he helped to carry the Cairns Taipans last season, but he has taken on an even bigger role in Brisbane.
Craig also feels like the link between the guards and the Bullets big frontcourt which is key with their combinations clicking through the second half of the season.
The big question: Will their guard rotation continue to click?
The Bullets biggest problem early in the season was their attack – more specifically their guard rotation of Jermaine Beal, Adam Gibson and Craig.
With the trio starting to right the ship, the Bullets offence has suddenly sprung to life. Whether they can keep it going will more than likely define Brisbane’s season.
Pre-season prediction: 5th
New prediction: 2nd
The only reason the Bullets were predicted to miss the finals was because it’s a new club and they were likely to battle for cohesion on offence.
Things are ticking though and they could well have home court advantage come the semi-finals.
Cairns Taipans
Record and position: 6-6 (4th)
Grade: B-
Given the Taipans tough draw to open the season saw them lose three on the trot, their performance to get back into the top four and win six of their next nine has been sensational.
They have played a hard-nosed style of basketball, pinning other teams to low scores and only just doing enough to get over the line more often than not.
They have the best defensive record in the competition, and if they can keep that going then there is every chance they will finish the season strongly.
Key player: Mark Worthington
When it comes down to experience, there are none better than Worthington. The veteran might be in what is likely to be his last season, but there is no slowing down.
He was a little off the pace in Cairns last season, but hasn’t had any of those worries this year. His work at the defensive end has set the tone for the entire team and while ‘Wortho’ isn’t the most flashy player, he will define where the Taipans end up this season.
The big question: Can they battle through a tough draw?
The Taipans have played the least amount of games in the comepeition at this point and will be under heavy fatigue to the end of the season.
Given they play ten matches in the last five rounds, which will include some very tough road trips, it’s hard to see Cairns having a strong finish to the season.
Pre-season prediction: 8th
New prediction: 7th
In what was the hardest season in history to predict, Cairns looked like the only true outsiders. They haven’t lived up to that name, but it’s going to be a difficult finish to the season.
Questions still remain about their offence, and relying on defence for ten games in five weeks probably won’t cut it.
Adelaide 36ers
Record and position: 6-6 (5th)
Grade: C
The 36ers were fighting for their season only a few weeks ago, but instead they have turned it around with three straight victories against high quality opposition and sit just outside the top four.
While there is nothing in the competition, it was looking like the 36ers were going to be a distant last and they seem to have turned a corner.
Adelaide’s offence is firing night in and night out, but with the worst defensive record in the competition it’s difficult to justify that they have had a wonderful start to the season given their talent pool.
Key player: Jerome Randle
It’s just scary when it can be said that Randle has struggled but still leads the league in points per game and is top five in assists.
His 36ers have been poor on defence, and their offence at times hasn’t clicked. Couple that with Randle being in foul trouble at points and his numbers are amazing.
The big question: Can they tighten the ship?
Joey Wright is a coach who doesn’t stand for garbage, but the young 36ers have struggled big time on defence, which has cost them games.
Their offence, for the most part has been strong but unless they can get their defence clicking it’s going to be a long second half of the season.
Pre-season prediction: 4th
New prediction: 4th
Adelaide might have had some struggles, and their defence mightn’t be what it needs to be for a premiership run, but it won’t stop them from not making the finals.
If Randle stays healthy, they should scrape in.
Melbourne United
Record and position: 6-7 (6th)
Grade: C-
It’s difficult to know what to make of Melbourne’s season so far. With a roster that is probably the deepest in the competition, ‘not good enough’ sums it up.
They were pre-season favourites with good reason, but things have gone pear shaped as they fell to the bottom of the ladder.
While they have picked up a couple of wins in the last few weeks weeks their consistency is still an issue. With the league being so close, sixth place isn’t an issue but their level of performance on court is.
Key player: Chris Goulding
The difference Goulding had made since returning from an ankle injury has been huge for United. His ability to shoot, construct the offence and add something on defence makes him one of the most complete players in the NBL.
His combination with the recently signed Casper Ware has also been ticking and with David Andersen starting to find his feet, it’s making Melbourne United look dangerous.
The big question: Why haven’t Melbourne lived up to pre-season expectations?
While injuries are a big part of the problem in Melbourne, there is more to it than that. Even before injuries, their offence was inconsistent and didn’t look like firing.
It’s not a great deal better now, but Goulding and Casper Ware can get hot in a hurry.
Most of the blame for Melbourne’s stuttering offence has to go on coach Dean Demopolous. Their structure is appaling and it’s little wonder good defensive outfits have found them out.
Don’t be surprised if he isn’t in Melbourne next season.
Pre-season prediction: Minor premiers, premiers
New prediction: 3rd
The only reason United are still in the fight at this stage is due to how close the league is.
In any other competition they might well have been blown away, down to the bottom and marked never to return.
United have a tough period coming up with plenty of away games, but once through that they should be able to lock down a finals berth.
Perth Wildcats
Record and position: 6-7 (7th)
Grade: D
It’s difficult to mark the Wildcats so harshly, because just a few weeks ago they were sitting in second place on the ladder.
The problem though was that they never looked like the second best team in the competition and the way they have dealt with injuries has been abysmal.
Sitting in seventh place at the mid-way point, their chances at the finals are a long way from over but the first nine rounds have been less than impressive for the men from the west.
Key player: Casey Prather
Who else? Prather, through injuries to other players has taken over so far this season for the Wildcats. Unfortunately, it simply hasn’t been anywhere near enough
They were sitting near the top of the table a couple of weeks ago but never looked like a team of world beaters and the injury to Damian Martin until January has left Prather under more pressure than anyone else in the league.
Given he is already averaging 20 points a game there is little more Prather can do to spark the Wildcats offence.
The big question: Will the Wildcats hold it together without Damian Martin?
For a team like Perth, who generate a lot of their offence thanks to defence, being without the best defensive player in the competition is a massive blow.
It’s abundantly clear their whole game plan needs change without Martin on the court, as was evidenced by their biggest ever loss at the Perth Arena against the Brisbane Bullets last Thursday.
Pre-season prediction: 3rd
New prediction: 6th
At the start of the season, third place almost seemed a little conservative for the Wildcats. Now it seems out of reach.
The Wildcats haven’t missed the finals for three decades but they don’t appear to have the offensive options, and while it’s a gamble calling that they will miss the finals, that’s where they are going to end up.
New Zealand Breakers
Record and position: 6-8 (8th)
Grade: F
The Breakers are the only side rated as a fail for the first half of the season and with good reason.
They have had some bright spots but it’s turned into a disaster for a side that made the grand-final last season, but now sits last.
Coming into the season, there was a perceived strength in outside shooting, but with the exception of a little burst over a couple of weeks in the middle, even that has been lacking.
Their defensive issues have cost them games and sitting last in the league on a four-match losing streak it’s hard to know where to look.
Key player: Robert Loe
This is a left-field selection, but hear me out. While their big names – Corey Webster, Kirk Penney and Thomas Abercrombie have the shooting, Loe seems to bring a more complete package to Auckland.
He has been fantastic off the bench, even during the Breakers recent losing streak. He has crashed the boards, made big plays on offence and also has the height to go with his outside shooting presence.
With Woodside out, if the Breakers are to move forward his combination with David Stockton and the way he plays is key.
The big question: Can Ben Woodside re-ignite the Breakers?
Before the point guard copped an ankle injury, his form and the way he had brought the Breakers into one cohesive unit on the floor was awesome to watch.
After struggling through the early part of the season, he turned things around for the Breakers. Since his injury though, they have dropped off the charts again at the offensive end of the floor.
While Woodside isn’t due to return until January, which may already be too late, he will have pressure like you would not believe on him to produce something special.
Pre-season prediction: 6th
New prediction: 8th
It might seem harsh, but the Breakers just don’t look like improving.
Their offence had one burst that won them a couple of games and got their season back on track, but it’s quickly fallen away again.
To go from grand-final to wooden spoon is not something you will often see, but that’s the way it looks.
Note – all teams records are correct at the end of Round 9.
As an extra for this article, let’s have a look at some of the predicted end of season awards.
End of season award prediction
MVP: Jerome Randle
Coach of the Year: Andrew Gaze
Most improved: Nathan Sobey
All-NBL first team
Guard: Jerome Randle
Guard: Kevin Lisch
Forward: Brad Newley
Forward: Casey Prather
Centre: AJ Ogilvy
All-NBL second team
Guard: Chris Goulding
Guard: Rotnei Clarke
Forward: Torrey Craig
Forward: Greg Whittington
Centre: Daniel Johnson
There you have it Roarers. How did you rate each team over the first half of the season?
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde
Johnno
Guest
Every game has felt like a play off game not a regular season game, the league is crazy, any team can win the comp. Been awesome. I'm starting to think when he's all done and retired, Kevin lisch might end up the best ever NBL player and that includes Gaze/Loggins/Heal/Grace and others etc. He is awesome.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Thanks for the kind words Chook! Yep, it's actually incredible how close the competition is. Nothing in it. Newley has been amazing, but the thing is you barely know at times he is doing the damage. The other night against Illawarra it felt like he was barely on the floor yet his numbers suggested he was probably unlucky not to miss out on man of the match. Andrew Gaze is absolutely fantastic to watch on the sidelines. So much passion, emotion and everything in between. Of course, dropping a few f-bombs in the timeout was a laugh.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Yep, think you're right about the Taipans having four must win games... I just can't see them getting it done at the end.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Thanks Scott for a mighty fine effort for putting this together. Hey, this NBL comp is so close you can go from being a hero to zero in a few games... and if you do it will be very hard to come back. Newley has been a rock... and with Lisch back to his pocket picking best it augurs well for the Kings. So I can't argue about both their inclusions in your all 1st starting five for the league. Biggest thing I've learnt thus far this season is Andrew Gaze has a massive potty mouth :) And he seemed such a nice boy.
Johnno
Guest
Tapains have massive December. They have an easy December draw 4-home games straight and good rests between and only 1 road trip at end of december and that's in QLD(Brisbane which they have betaen Bullets in Brizvagas). If Cairns can win all 4 home games this month, it will be massive and really set up a top-4 finish. But basically Cairns have to win all 4 home games this month to quality for finals I reckon. Big game vs Kings on Thursday night. Kings played Monday night(away) they will have tough road trip to Cairns with limited preparation unlike Cairns who will be well prepared.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Hey mate, appreciate that! The Taipans have really surprised me. When I sat down to do pre-season previews, they were the only team that sort of looked like being away from the rest of the pack. They have been strong at home though and as you say picked up a few wins on the road which will be key going into the back of the competition. Their draw though is really tough to the back end of the season - not sure anyone else plays five straight double rounds at any point of the season, let alone the last five. NZ will finish last I think. They just appear to have nothing. That last round is going to be a cracker! I'm working on completely clearing my calendar. Every single game could have playoff implications I feel.
fnq boy
Guest
hey mate, great analysis. Speaking as a one eyed taipans fan ................. last year we couldn't buy a win on the road, this year they have already chalked up 3. Travis Trice, after missing several games through injury is now starting to hum along. And all teams say that winning in Cairns is a tough thing to do, power failures notwithstanding. I reckon we might still snag a payoff berth. This is the most fascinating competition I have ever seen and you may be proved right that we miss the playoffs through a tough end of year draw. All fans could make a case that their team could make the payoffs (except for NZ who have clearly lost their mojo) and I reckon it will all come down to the last round to decide which teams finish 1 through 7. What a great competition it is this year..
Scott Pryde
Expert
It wouldn't surprise me if Martin is back before the new year - the guy is an absolute freak! But you're right, the Willdcats are shot if they don't pick up a few road wins. You're right about Beveridge, but I just can't see the Hawks being in the top four.
Damo
Guest
Strong rumours in Perth that Martin may be back closer to Jan 1 than Jan 30 for the Wildcats but up till then their draw is horrible (due to Hopman Cup taking up the Arena). So unless they steal a few unlikely away wins they will really be on the border of the finals. If the Hawks can hold on to a finals berth then Beveridge wins my COTY by a long shot. He always produces with less than stellar lists. But otherwise - what a season and yes, my predictions are long shot.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Hey mate, You're not wrong! The competition is absolutely incredible and as a neutral spectator for everything bar Kings game you just don't want to look away. 90% of games have been alive into the final 60 seconds which really says something for the closeness of the competition. Little known fact - for my predictions I threw darts at a board. Ok, not quite but I'll be shocked if I get more than half right.
mds1970
Roar Guru
It's extraordinary that the top 2 from last season are now the bottom 2, while last year's wooden spoon team is on top and a team that was out of the league for 8 years is in contention in their first year back. But this has been one of the most even seasons yet. You're a brave man to make predictions; and there's plenty that could change with only a few games separating first and last.