Black Caviar filly Oscietra working towards much-anticipated debut

Kyneton 10 – callan murphy can continue his winning run for hayes team aboard murphys reward who is first up off a good trail win and show promise in a limited race. good ew chance at around $7 Cran 3 – ridgway should win, but at a $1.40 is too short. That getting into black caviar odds and shorter than winx. Sistine spirit comes from same family as Sistine demon and Sistine angel, and they are dry trackers who go/went best at 1400m/1600m. prepared to forgive the first up run on wet ground and improvement can be expected 2nd up, out in trip and on dry ground. Wasn’t far of ridgway in a trial a few weeks back, both had more to give. 25% win, 75% place. 5 – prior engagement looks best of the night with most of its rivals stepping out of maiden wins. None of the maiden winners overly impressive, progressive or coming through hot form races. Good run first up behind two who go to town either side of xmas day at the bool, extra fitness, longer trip, and in my view a weaker race, combine to create a good betting prospect at around $3.30 in this ‘class 1’ (typically weaker than a BM64). 8 – speculative bet in the last on duggan from a very dodgy stable first up from a trip to the NT. Won first up last prep also in a BM64 at morn over 1200m. $15 available at present with Bet365 is worth a nibble. Sand 2 – anyone wanting to back mr sneaky at $2.75 can come and see me for a better price. Not sure why its so short, let alone even fave. No’s 1 and 2 are consequently value in my view, and represent a good spread on how to play this race. have 60% of stake on the 1 and 40% of the stake on the 2. For those who might question my approach of backing 2 horses in the same race, I say look at it this way. Its basically like have a bet on ‘either’ to win around $2.80. in effect, I am picking you a ‘selection’ that will return $2.80. its not something I typically do in small fields as these odds (ie, quite often will back 2 horses both at $10 in a field of 15), but in this case im quite against the rest of the field, so happy to do so. 5 – most people in aust will be tipping burning front. I tipped him last run and did caution I am possibly going off one run too early, but at $12 it was worth a good, esp ew. and he ran super. His 3 runs so far this prep have been super and he showed last summer once he finds form, he will hold it. gets the last use of the jye mcneil claim, but its not determinative, I think he would win this even with 60kgs. he wont do it super flash, or blitz them, but he will grind away, keep coming, a bit like kenjorwood last sat, and just be too tough/classy/strong. Not quite a good thing as condeded 4-6kgs so some handy rivals, but expect him to win. 6 – rewarding effort is a good thing, and unfortauntely, I didn’t get my preview out in time before the good odds have gone. Hopefully for those not on he drifts back out, but I mark him about $1.90. really progressive and smart horse who is in hot form. unlike burning front, who is already established, he is still on the up, so down in the hcps, and reckon he has 2-3 more wins in him if placed properly this summer as his rating progresses. First go at the mile was last start and he donkey licked them coming from back of field circling them, sustaining a run and running away. ultra impressive. That was a BM70, this isn’t a lot harder. Meets a pretty moderate bunch of horses and he stands out as the lightly raced 4yo who is in form and on the up. the one exception being black sheep, but in my view he is a good risk, not so much because of the weight (it’s a factor though), but his 3 x wins in town have all come at the valley, and in fact even most of his county wins have come of tigher circuits. I think the bigger track is far more suited to rewarding effort. If this was at MV, it might be a tougher split. 7 – all form very exposed and intertwined here through gallic chieftain, goathland and charlevioux. In short, they are a moderate bunch with not a lot between them. the obvious thing to do if you reach that conclusion is to look for a different formline. And 2 stand out. And both have excellent crednetials. One is the Williams runner and every single horse he send around in a staying race has to be respected. The other is the waller/oliver runner who comes down from syd, this runner from a stable/jockey combo with a good strike rate and a trainer who is clearly the best trainer of stayers north of the murray. I will be taking a split on either to win, which with proportioned staking gets you a price of around $3.80. happy to be against shikarpour who fell in on leaders track 2 runs back with dream run and the had every possible and got beat in ADL in a weak race by a horse who would be $20 in this. Gawler 3 – mail it in is bursting to win, horse is doing super, just not getting races run to suit last couple, but up in trip, good draw and down in class, should get its chance to get back in winner list, short enough at $2.30 though. 6 – was keen Glenrowan prince last start and he got heavily backed and saluted. Going super this prep in vic, and comes to SA and strikes a very winnable race and can control things from the front from barrier 1. 7 – the top 2 stand out, I was with galaxy gazer last start and he has a task to turn it around on the toppy/fave. Both did have very good runs, but I think a few things can help galaxy gazer here. he was 2nd up last run, so can/should strip fitter, extra distance in his favour, 2kgs weight swing, but not sure the toppy/fave maps for the same dream run this time from wider draw from the 1600m start at gawler where as stubby should give galaxy a dream run again from the inside marble. At $5/$2, you can back him ew, and this seems a good play for the race. Boxing Day Great memories of caul on boxing day from seeing hurricane sky win on debut in the 2yo race, so seeing reset score the first of 5 successive wins as a 3yo and in more recent times having a big go on karacatis. Still yet to do all the form, but one horse I do want to mention who runs in the main race is duke of Brunswick. He is a horse it must have been awfully tempting to push on with into the early spring as his form was good through winter, but I think price may reap the rewards of a spring in the paddock letting the A-graders go around this summer with him. taken along slowly (didn’t run as a 2yo) and given time to slowly eke his way through his grades, he has been well placed and has taken time to mature, he still pulled a bit fiercly in some 1400m race last prep when the tempo slowed mid-race. but I think we will see a complete and fully furnished horse this summer and whilst he might be underdone first up, he can sprint well fresh over the 1200m. in fact, his 1200m record is very good, and is type of horse who I think as he goes in grade can race better as the tempo will be stronger (bit like the type of footy player who can do better in the 1’s than the 2’s). there are some lovely 1400m/1600m races coming up through jan/feb for him at listed/G3 level and can see him winding up in a blamey at G2 come march. Confident there are multiple wins in him this prep. as such, I wont be missing out first up, and even if beaten, will be following up all summer. Of course his formlines from winter suggest he could have raced on with the likes of illustrious lad, voodoo lad and ulmann all running well/winning and suggesting to me we have a horse in duke of Brunswick who is up to G2 level. Lots of dual acceptors, so lots of scr likely, but others with an early eye on are one tipped recently in dodging bullets, kenjorwood and the new boy. I should have something for new years day meeting as im around all week. but don’t expect to hear from in first few weeks of jan as up in Caloundra for a while.

Its nice to see the lineage continue and the media taking an interest in the young filly ...

Of course you're expecting her to trial well, you'll have two or three of the other runners like last time with instructions to hold onto their mounts at the jump to make it look like she leaps out of the gates like a gazelle and then to absolutely strangle them and not move a muscle to ever get within even a length of her over the whole trial ! Her first jump out was a magnificently staged piece of theatre any producer would be proud of. I've watched it a dozen times and sorry, but I'm calling BS on this one. Was always going to make every newspaper and TV nightly news bulletin, so we just HAD to get the right result wouldn't we now. Hell I don't know if she can run or how fast, nobody does, but until they're running for money not media attention I'll reserve judgement on that performance, not hyped up staged media crap.