Predicting a very predictable NRL season

If you are anything like me, you’ll getting a little jumpy, with the NRL season looming. Dramas around the Commission, drug charges and poor off-field behaviour will be cleverly ‘managed’ and become secondary to the action once Round 1 kicks off on March 2.

But will anything be different?

Let’s face it, all clubs have a culture and the way they play will be quite predictable. Sure, every now and again there is an anomaly, yet the broader trends will continue in 2017.

To win the title, a club needs to snap that trend or, in the case of the consistently successful clubs, sustain it.

This means the following opinions will be correct if a front runner takes out the title. If a surprise does occur, then only one will be incorrect and that team will have emerged from the depths of its stereotype and claimed the holy grail.

Brisbane
The Broncos will be fit, mobile, high-scoring and skilled, as Wayne Bennett seeks an eighth premiership.

There will be talk that the loss of Corey Parker will hurt them, yet in true baby-Bronco style, Bennett will debut and develop some amazingly talented youngsters, who play like experienced first-graders.

Most notably, and even though I can’t see it, he will find a way to make Benji Marshall great again.

Canberra
The Raiders should have a good year and the massive pack assembled by Ricky Stuart will win many games through the middle third. There will still be a little razzle-dazzle, yet Canberra’s defensive failings will still prove the key issue.

There was a big improvement in this area in 2016 and the coach will need more to control high-scoring encounters, where the Raiders’ reliance on their own point production doesn’t always get the job done.

Paul Vaughan is a loss, yet Zac Woolford and Brenko Lee will be covered by Stuart relatively easily.

Canterbury
The Bulldogs will be… well, the Bulldogs. The pack will be big, tough, yet a little slow. They will win games they potentially shouldn’t and the depth of winter will be their time.

At some stage, they might look top-two or three contenders, but it will all be smoke and mirrors as other teams turn up the wick.

Hampered by an impotent attack, the Dogs will fall short on the back of halves that won’t create enough opportunities for their outside men, while the over-reliance on the Morris boys will be obvious.

Cronulla
As for the premiers, it is likely they will struggle with the weight of success. Defending a premiership is nigh impossible these days and the Sharks will slip into their former identity, showing promise at times, yet failing to be a genuine premiership threat.

This might seem a little harsh, yet an ageing Paul Gallen, problematic Andrew Fifita and Ben Barba, the loss of Michael Ennis, and the strange acquisition of Tony Williams suggests the Sharks are a mid-table proposition for 2017.

Gold Coast
The Titans were the over-achievers from 2016 and Neil Henry’s coaching was masterful considering pre-season predictions. With an injury to Kane Elgey after the Daly Cherry-Evans contract fell through, they appeared doomed.

But Ashley Taylor and Ryan James led from the front and the Titans became a formidable team.

With more losses than significant gains, Kevin Proctor adds strength up front, the Titans will over-achieve again, yet fall just short when the forwards are forced to combat some of the larger packs in consecutive weeks.

Manly
The Sea Eagles’ challenges centere around the coach in 2017, who didn’t cope well tactically last season. The perception that Bob Fulton is shadowing Trent Barrett’s every move and calling the shots will linger.

With many new faces, such as Curtis Sironen and Blake Green, there is added depth, yet with change comes a time of adjustment. Inconsistency in performances will once again restrict the Eagles from becoming a top-four threat.

Melbourne
Would it be any surprise if the Storm is exactly what we expect, with Cameron Smith needling players and massaging referees while Billy Slater makes a glorious return?

Cameron Munster and Jesse Bromwich will continue to develop and a certain freak named Cooper Cronk will do what he always does and create try-scoring opportunities galore.

They will be there, as bold, irritating and arrogant as ever, and it’s up to the rest of the competition to find a way to incapacitate the formulaic strategy that Craig Bellamy empowers his troops to deploy.

Newcastle
The Knights will be poor again, partly due to recent events that take away one of their key components, yet also because their youth need a few more years to develop.

The Knights haven’t lost much except gun Jeremy Smith, yet their gains are also minimal.

There might be a few impressive victories, yet there will also be some very dark days, when Newcastle aren’t really up to scratch and cricket scores become a threat.

North Queensland
The Cowboys will once again be around the mark. They have powerful forwards, a solid backline with the speed to finish plays and a coach who seems to have achieved the perfect balance in terms of workload and responsibility for his ageing, genius halfback.

Covering the overrated James Tamou will not be an issue, and rather than having to break out from a trend, culture or pattern, the Cowboys’ consistency has been a model and just needs replicating to once again be a force.

Parramatta
The Eels will ride a wave at some point in the season, with a series of good wins, yet continue to struggle with culture and direction. When the coach accuses board members and significant stakeholders within the club of attempting to derail his efforts, there’s something fundamentally wrong.

On-field, they will be brilliant at times, yet inconsistency will plague them again. Josh Hoffman could be a significant contributor, yet their leaders need to get the place back on track and it won’t happen overnight.

Penrith
The Panthers will once again start the season as everyone’s dark horse. The massive junior catching pen, financial resources, and long-term vision overseen by Phil Gould is serving them well.

Their attractive brand of football will win fans and plaudits, yet the inexperience of the squad will be tested and striking the balance between expansive play and grinding wins will be tough to achieve.

Penrith may have one of the best chances to reverse its pattern, as for them, it might just be a case of the squad growing up. They have lost little and added some experience and depth in the form of Tim Browne and Mitch Rein, as well as the enigmatic Tamou.

South Sydney
The Bunnies will continue to play the inane and boring brand of football they have persisted with since the 2014 victory. Sure, it worked then, but it ain’t working now, as the game’s attacking bias and rule changes reward adventure and creativity, rather than hit ups and one-out football.

Much like the Dogs, without more punch from the halves and the ability to throw more questions at defences, Souths will grind out a number of wins, yet not be able to break down some of the well-organised defences waiting to rebound into sparkling attacking play.

St George Illawarra
The Dragons will have a few fleeting moments, yet lack the attacking polish required to threaten top teams. Paul Vaughan is a good buy and the youthful squad will develop further, however under Paul McGregor, play will continue to be so limited in terms of risk and creativity that only a paradigm shift in approach will turn things around.

Controversy will continue as questions are asked of the CEO, and do nothing but distract the club.

Sydney Roosters
The Chooks will look a million bucks in their fancy cars and nice suits. Something Trent Robinson will need to combat is the ‘appearance vs reality’ dilemma, which has been as evident as a Shakespearean tragedy recently.

They will appear good at some point, yet pundits will be within their rights to ask if they are indeed the real deal. Luke Keary could add the polish in the halves they have been seeking.

New Zealand
The Warriors will look, on paper, like a top-four contender, yet will under-perform. Gee, there’s a bold prediction!

Shaun Johnson won’t run the ball enough, cumbersome backs will make poor defensive reads and drop balls with lines open, to frustrate fans once again.

Perhaps facing the biggest challenge in terms of reversing an ingrained level of performance over an extended period, the implementation of a culture of professionalism and perfection by a hard-nosed coach is required. Therein lies another problem.

The acquisition of Kieran Foran is a risk and an unknown.

Wests Tigers
The Tigers will run around the park, following their strangely coiffured captain, entertaining all and sundry. There will be a bit of nostalgia and some great Sunday afternoon wins, with images of Laurie Nichols bandied about in visual media.

Unfortunately, the lack of substance up front will lead to losses, despite the creativity of Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses, who will continue to impress. What Jamal Idris brings is anybody’s guess.

All teams have tendencies and patterns, whether it be an expansive Tigers, tough Bulldogs or clinical Melbourne, leopards don’t change their spots. However, every year is a chance for each club to break out of the perceived stereotype; their style, failings and limitations.

The Sharks broke a 50-year hoodoo in 2016 and perhaps another shock lies ahead in season 2017. Alternatively, will one of the usual suspects climb the mountain and condemn the rest to another year of soul searching?