I could give you several solid reasons why I’m tipping the West Coast Eagles to win the AFL premiership in 2017, and by the end of this article I will have. But there’s really only one, a very big one, that ties it all together and make it seem possible to me.
Drew Petrie.
Nah, I’m just pulling your leg, it’s Sam Mitchell (although The Big Dish will be a handy recruit and more than earn his rookie contract salary this year, mark my words).
Move over Dion Prestia, Tom Mitchell, Brett Deledio, Jaeger O’Meara. More over Lynden Dunn. Sam Mitchell was the best player to change clubs in 2016. I predict he will, by a very comfortable margin, be 2017’s recruit of the year.
Somehow a bloke with four premierships, including one as captain, five best-and-fairests, three All-Australian guernseys, and yes, a Brownlow Medal (not to mention the equal most career Brownlow votes of all time, adjusted for previous voting systems) is criminally underrated.
The question is often asked as to whether Chris Judd or Gary Ablett junior is the best player of this modern generation, but Mitchell is just as deserving of being in that conversation.
Sure, he is 34 years old – but he has always been durable and, despite copping a hard tag every week in 2016, still performed at a very high level.
So what does he do for West Coast? Suddenly they have a midfield built around two Brownlow medallists. Everyone’s job gets a little easier. Either the taggers go to Mitchell and Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff run with more freedom, or someone makes the wildly irresponsible decision of leaving Mitchell untagged – bad idea.
However, it’s not just the excellent performances he’ll be able to contribute for the Eagles come game time, but the leadership he will provide both on and off the field, the knowledge of how to succeed and win premierships that he can pass down to his younger teammates.
Oh, and did I mention yet that the Eagles landed him for draft pick No.88 and change? A pretty cheap price for an A-grade midfielder who I reckon will revolutionise their entire team.
But, enough about Mitchell for now. Let’s look at some of the other reasons why the Eagles can contend for the flag in 2017.
Let’s not forget this time last year they were close to a flag favourites after being runners-up the year prior and recruiting some more talent in Jack Redden and Lewis Jetta, not to mention the return from injury of Eric Mackenzie.
Things didn’t go to plan – none of those players provided half the level of quality that they had in previous years. Form was down more or less across the board for West Coast. Opposition coaches figured out how to break their defence, and they struggled, ultimately bowing out in the first week of finals courtesy of the eventual premiers.
However, as I said just last week, progress isn’t always linear. We laugh at Damien Hardwick when he talks about taking a step back to take two steps forward, but that expression is cliched for a reason.
Improvement doesn’t tend to happen at a constant rate, it comes with peaks and troughs. Last year was a down year for West Coast, where they failed to live up to heady expectations. But they haven’t lost their talent, and in 2017 I expect they will rise again.
Redden and Jetta are not failed recruits just yet. Mackenzie with a year in his legs may be ready to get back to his best form. And there is still so, so, so much untapped potential in the likes of Elliot Yeo, Jack Darling, Scott Lycett, Dom Sheed and Liam Duggan, just to name a few.
The Eagles have one of the best forward lines in the league and could make a claim to the best tall defender pairing in the game if they can combine a revitalised Mackenzie with the already elite Jeremy McGovern.
They currently boast the oldest and most experienced list in the league – their time to win a premiership is now.
There is just one big question mark hanging over them that I see, and which will cause many to write them off. That is the fact Nic Naitanui will miss most of the season due to an ACL injury suffered late last year.
That is no small piece of adversity to contend with, but it is not something that can’t be overcome. He is currently aiming for a return in Round 16 of the season – if he can make it back by then, there’s enough time for him to build fitness and form and possibly be the late boost that pushes the Eagles into a premiership.
Maybe they’re not the most likely choice, but my gut says that with an A-grade new recruit, an excellent coach, and plenty of mature talent on the books ready to bounce back from the disappointments of last year, the West Coast Eagles are ready to win their fourth AFL premiership in 2017.
Batman
Guest
It's much easier to see a disadvantage than an advantage because that is a natural bias. What many Melb fans are blind to is that travelling and playing at the MCG, Eithad, Kardinia Park is difficult for interstate teams. The same as it's difficult to travel to Perth. Those Melb grounds are fortresses. The travel, the one-side crowds and ground differences combine to make it difficult. It's all 3 factors. It's a matter of opinion whether it is better to have 11 games to your advantage & 11 to your disadvantage or only 5 to your advantage and 5 to your disadvantage. I personally think it's better to play in your home city as much as possible. BUT if you don't acknowledge that it's difficult for all teams playing interstate then you're bias.
Cat
Roar Guru
Yes but a neutral crowd game doesn't mean a win nor a loss, it can be either. The majority of game with home ground advantage should be wins, hence when so many interstate teams end up with so called 'fortresses' which Melbourne teams never get. If games played with a majority crowd are won by the home side 80% of the time, having 10 of those games is a huge leg up over having 5. If a side wins 80% of those 5 that's 4 games. That is 4 more wins expected before any other factors are looked at. You can't double down and complain about traveling (which I did mention) AND onesidedness for the same set of games. When you travel away you should be disadvantaged.
Macca
Guest
Batman - on thememberships those membership numbers include numerous types of memberships that aren't full seasons so not all 45k of the Carlton members had the right to go to that game or a lot of them prioritise other games. On the MCG do you really think 65-75% of its seating capacity is in the nose bleed section? On the umpire he wasn't complaining just stating the fact - I guarantee you would be affected as well, unless you aren't human. And no one is shooting the interstate teams - just pointing out the the facts
Batman
Guest
Cat you should be a politician, you need to consider one-side crowds to your advantage AND against you. To repeat in 2016 Eagles had 11 one-side games in their favour and 11 against Pie had 4 one-side games in their favour AND 5 One-side games against. The remainder balanced. Vic teams have less games with overwhelming support but also less games with overwhelming opposition.
Cat
Roar Guru
IS teams: 11 game in home state with 10 having 95% of the crowd in their favor Melb teams*: 15 games in home state with 4 having 95% of the crowd in their favor *Won't be the same for every side but using Collingwood 2017 as an example. So IS teams travel more, yep, absolutely, and that is a disadvantage. However, they clearly also benefit from better crowd backing, aka home ground advantage. While the MCG 'experience' may favour Melb teams come finals time, having a clear home ground advantage actually helps IS teams make it to finals. It's simply not as cut and dried as some of you wish it to be.
Cat
Roar Guru
And that is the one they were allowed. As I said, allowed ONE home final in 100+ years.
Batman
Guest
11 one-side crowd games. Carlton had 45,000 members so why was there only 24,000 at a good game? Hawks had 70,000 members but only 43,000 attended. I've been to the MCG with small crowds, it still has atmosphere as only the nosebleeds are empty. Melbourne teams problem is that only 50% of their members bother going to a game. Don't shoot the IS teams because their supporters turn up. Fix your problem. Which umpire stated he is too weak to make a good decision because it's noisy? For an umpire to complain about a footy crowd being too noisy is laughable.
andyl12
Guest
"Geelong has been allowed a single home final" Actually they got one in 2013. And they were stupid enough to lose the game.
Macca
Guest
But Etihad is better than the MCG.
Scott
Guest
Nah I'm saying there is a certain size of afl ground that suits all sports fields. The afl field from wing to wing is just big enough to support a cricket ground. From pocket to pocket a soccer field and from end to end a rugby union field. I will try find the diagram and post it up. Because the dome and Perth stadium are built from scratch they are this size. I imagine all new AFL stadiums built in future will be built to the same dimensions as the dome and Perth stadium.
Cat
Roar Guru
No cricket shaped ground is good for soccer
jim
Guest
"I think home support probably plays a bigger role than the dimensions of the ground- with the exception of the SCG which is a joke. " God I get sick of hearing this misnomer. Since the new stands were built, the ground has been lengthened substantially to what it was. Its now 155.5 x 136m. http://www.sydneycricketground.com.au/venues/field-information/scg-field/ That makes the SCG only 5.5 m shorter than the MCG and 5 metres narrower. How is that 'a joke?' Its far less of a discrepancy than a number of other grounds - in particular a lot of much narrower grounds such as Spotless, Adelaide Oval, Kardinia Park and Subiaco. I hardly think 5 metres difference makes a lot of difference really.
Macca
Guest
Batman – Have you ever been to an MCG game where there is only 24,000 people – the atmosphere is very different to a sold out 35,000. And I was actually at the Carlton West Coast game last year and I was surprised at the number of West Coast supporters – it wasn’t 50/50 but there was much more than 1,000. Also you said “Eagles 11 IS away games” Freo is still in Perth isn’t it? “The umpires are professional. If they can’t be unbiased then they don’t deserve being paid.” Umpires are also human. When an umpire says that the crowds at Adelaide and Perth can influence them I take them at their word. It isn’t bias it is being influenced on the 50/50 call. If you have 35,000 people screaming at you that it is holding the ball you will probably give them decision that way if you are already 50/50 on it anyway.
Batman
Guest
It's 11 11 because Away Games against Freo is a one-Sided crowd as Docker members exceed ground side. Vic clubs membership are over 30,000 so Melb games of 30,000 supporters to 1,000 seems very similar to Eagles 35,000 (average crowd) to 1,000 Pies have 50-60,000 members Hawks 70,000 Complete rubbish that Vic teams only play against on-sided crowds. How many Eagles supporters at these games last year, 100 or 500? Hawk MCG 43,000 Cats Simons 25,000 Dogs Ethihad 29,000 Carl MCG 24,000 If Vic members don't bother going to a game then that's a different problem, especially against the Eagles/Dockers who have been consistent top 8 sides except for a few ups and downs like Freo last year. The umpires are professional. If they can't be unbiased then they don't deserve being paid. Plus most of the time the crowd noise is after they have made their decision, surely they make each decision based upon what they see.
Macca
Guest
"maximise the fan experience for all sports." The MCG isn't great to watch games made for a rectangular field like soccer.
Cat
Roar Guru
So you are saying the crowd experience at the MCG is poor? I've never found it to be poor.
Macca
Guest
Batman - The Eagles play Freo "home & "away" every year your split isn't 11-11 it's 10-10. Also it isn't insulting to think umpires are influenced by the noise when umpires have gone on record saying that they are. Third Vic teams only play against large one side crowds against them, Perth teams only play against large one sided crowds for them (with the exception of Adelaide games. When Freo and the Eagles play in Victoria generally the games aren't sold out.
Batman
Guest
Reasonable point so compare Pie and Eagles for 2016 Pie 4 home games against IS teams Eagles 11 home games Seems like the Eagles have an advantage BUT Pie 5 IS away games Eagles 11 IS away games Vic teams have less games with overwhelming support but also less games with overwhelming opposition. So why do Vic teams complain so much about one-sided crowds when they play far less? I think it's insulting to think the umpires are influenced by the noise. Do we want the umpires saying "Quiet Please" like tennis?
K
Guest
The Doggies won the GF but played the vast majority of their games in Melbourne at Etihad. I think home support probably plays a bigger role than the dimensions of the ground- with the exception of the SCG which is a joke. The non Melbourne teams virtually get a whole stadium barracking for them. Melbourne teams often play with a stadium split roughly half. Would be intereting to note this effect on variables such as player motivation and umpiring decisions.
Don Freo
Guest
Batman, Willie Rioli is burning up the track as a small forward. Apparently in line for a first up debut.