Roger Federer’s stunning win at this year’s Australian Open was a magnificent and unexpected addition to his legacy.
However at 35 years of age and with Rafael Nadal turning 31 – and Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray turning 30 this year – there’s no denying that we are in the twilight of the greatest era in men’s tennis.
The stats reflecting this unrivalled era of dominance by these four players are as jaw dropping as they are definitive.
Since Wimbledon 2003, when Federer broke through with his maiden title against Mark Philippoussis, to 2017, with his triumph at the Australian Open, 55 majors (the Australian, French, Wimbledon and US Open) have been played.
Out of these 55 majors, 47 were won by Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Murray.
I include Murray over Warwinka because over this period of time Murray has contested eleven grand slam finals, while Warwinka contested three – albeit winning each time he made the final which is an impressive feat on its own.
And just in case you need any further confirmation of the dominance of this era, from the 55 major finals played in that period, only three of those finals didn’t involve one of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Murray.
For the record, the scraps left behind were picked up by Roddick (US Open 2003), Gaston Gaudio (French Open 2004), Marat Safin (Australian Open 2005) Juan Martin del Potro (US Open 2009) Marin Cilic (US Open 2014) and Stan Warwinka (Australian Open 2014, French Open 2015 and US Open 2016).
For nearly 15 years Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray have dominated the game in a way that is unlikely to be repeated. Or is it?
From what was on show during the recent Australian summer of tennis, my contention is that if the cards fall the right way, we may be on the cusp of ushering in the next big four in men’s tennis.
This potentially could light up a new wave of rivalries and dominance that just might help fill the huge hole that will be left by the exit of the current big four.
Yes, there’s a long way to go and yes a lot of stars need to align, but imagine if the following four players all ‘kicked’ over the next 12 months at the same time and maintained their level and consistency over the next five years.
Dominic Thiem (age 23, current ATP ranking 8)
Grigor Dimitrov (age 25, current ATP ranking 13)
Nick Kyrios (age 21, current ATP ranking 15)
Alexander Zverev (age 19, current ATP ranking 22)
Within this group, there’s a wonderful mix here of playing styles, raw energy and larger-than-life personalities that just could ignite a second golden era.
What do you think?
Darryl
Guest
Doubt there will be a new big 4 for some time. Only Sascha Zverev looks a clear certainty to become a multiple time Slam winner on all surfaces. Thiem will take over the mantle as yearly Roland Garros favourite once Nadal retires or officially starts winding down. Dimitrov will be a late bloomer just like Stan Wawrinka and likely only win at most 3-5 slams. There is a lot of promise from the likes of Kyrgios, Shapovalov, Coric and Rublev to emerge as fierce challengers to Zverev once the current big 4 transitions out, but all really need to sort their heads out first and develop a consistent, winning mentality.
Jacob
Guest
I have no doubt that Zverev, Dimitrov, Thiem and Kyrios can possibly take a slam or two but I don't really see anyone at this current point having the potential that Federer, Nadal or Djokovic have. Those three are just in league of their own. League's of the like of Sampress/Aggasi, Willander/Boris/Llendl and Borg/Connors/McEnroe. I still think Murray/Djokovic/Nadal and possibly Federer will dominate the field for the comming 3 to 4 years winning 3 out of the 4 slams each year. Federer might just win another slam with his rivals now too aging. Djokovic will probably end up taking the most titles up to about four (but doubt he will surpas Federer on his total), I'd say Rafa wins another two or three and Murray two as well eventho they have to fight hard to push through all the other tennis talents. I do think after those 3 to 4 years we will have to wait a couple of years for an upcomming new tennis legend or legends like we have had. A couple of titles for Zverev is a safe bet. He is a solid and promising player. Dimitrov might win one of two on hard courts just like Thiem on Clay. I would give Kyrios the highest potential but the question is, if that ever comes to fruition. With all that said, I think Nishikori, Roanic and maybe Wawrinka will probably win a Grand slam in the comming years, after which we hopefully see the dawn of a new Tennis Era and legends.
Jen M
Roar Rookie
I think its an exciting time, I have always watched tennis but recently started watching more actively again, as I was over the sensationalising of some players in the media just to report something. After watching the Open just now I can say I'm back into it!. Federers win after years of downward turns for him made me have faith again, it was awesome to watch the mind struggle
Justin Ahrns
Roar Guru
Agree strongly with Zverev, Thiem and Dimitrov, but not so sure on Kyrgios. I am a big fan of his, but tennis is almost more mental than it is physical, and Kyrgios has shown he isn't mentally with it, which effects how he prepares his body and gameplan. The talent is absolutely there. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Rafa, Murray and Novak still dominating for another three or four years. Never write off champions. That said, I love what Zverev, Grigor and Thiem bring to the table, and they all certainly have a few grand slam titles in them if they can stay healthy
Ritesh Misra
Roar Guru
Excellent article. I would add Raonic to the list as well. Though he is 26 he is a fit lad and should do well too for the next few years. But Yes, in lon run- say over next 6-7 years the 4 listed here will probably rule the tennis world
Johnno
Guest
Dimitrov will never be as great as Federer, Federer at 25 has achieved far more than Dimirov had, Dimitrov maybe a Pat Rafter or Thomas Muster player at best no 1 for only a short type, big deal it's not much or another short lived no 1 Andy Roddick. So Dimitrov aint't no Federer and never will be, he's not much of a player.
doogs
Guest
can you please speak up
Remo Shankar
Roar Pro
Hi WInston, Federer is a 'one-off' in his beautiful and mercurial style. I'm not really talking about a comparison here, so I think you may have missed the core point of the article. In terms of potential, these 4 possible next gen players have it in spades. All you had to do was watch Dimitrov's magnificent display against Nadal in the recent Australian Open semi final. And if you need a further reminder, go and have a look at Kyrios' shot making and clutch moments against Nadal in the 2014 Wimbledon 4th round upset. It's breathtaking. Yes, different to Federer, but in his own way, Kyrios' talent is almost as audacious.
Winston
Guest
It's a pretty sad state of affairs when we compare these sorts of names to the likes of Federer, Nadal and Serena etc. Not sure if anyone remembers Federer pre 2003 - he already showed that he had talent bursting everywhere. Sure, his game had not developed enough, but you could already see that he had exquisite shot making, he could come to the net, serve was good, drop shots, he already had everything imaginable to be a great player. I don't see a pre 2003 Federer in any of the young ones you've mentioned. Let's just treasure what we've got remaining of the current greats!
Johnno
Guest
dimotrov is taller than Nadal and Federer what are you on about.
Johnno
Guest
ah jeff you clown no he wasn't, Tomic has never been in the top 10 stop making things up, he has a career high rank of only rank 17 in January 2016, and he's now an ranked a journey man rank of 32. He's only ever been a top 20, top 30, top 50 player, that it nothing much. So don't pipe him up as a top 10 player he's never done that stop making facts up. He's not a Nadal or a Fed or a Novak. Fededer at the same age as Tomic had already won 9 grand slams and world no 1 for a long time, to Tomic's zero grand slam and never been world no 1, just journeyman status. Tomic is not in Federer's level.
Rohan
Guest
I predict Grigor and Kyrgios won't win more than 2 slams each (if any)- both have a volatility that none of the big 4 ever had. Thiem and especially Zverev could win a lot though.
FrozenNorth
Guest
I disagree on all of them except Zverev. Thiem has to work too hard, Dimitrov is too small and has to play low margin to compensate for the lack of power (taking the ball super early) and Kygrios is crazy. They may steal the odd major but not greats here. Greatness will skip a generation as it did between the Sampras/Agassi era and the Federer/Nadal/joer era. At that time we saw Rios, Ferrero, Rafter, Hewitt, Roddick etc all share the number one as no true talent emerged. Sometimes this happens.
jeff dustby
Guest
keyboard warrior
jeff dustby
Guest
i reckon you are a dud. he was ranked in the teens for most of 2016
Johnno
Guest
A Q/F at wimbledon is no big deal it's chicken feed he's a journeyman that's all he's achieved in his tennis career.
Jrod
Guest
You can't say his career is a success. You don't reach the quarters of Wimbledon and trouble Novak without talent but he hasn't done the hard yards off court and thus not delivered. Imagine tomics variety, kyrgios brilliance with lleytons heart and work ethic.
JGK
Roar Guru
"not that hard to be a journeyman top 20 player." As I say, I wish I could fail like that.
Johnno
Guest
JGK all he's been able to achieve in life is be a top-20 tennis player(journeyman status) and make $5million bucks. He's hasn't been able to be as good as the Big 4 or a Laver or Sampras or Bjorg. He will never be like Federer etc. Heck he's not even pat Rafter status. Just a solid tour pro, that means your a dud and a failure, not that hard to be a journeyman top 20 player.
Johnno
Guest
more in general as he is in this age range and was hailed as the next big thing.