It is the 125th anniversary for the Collingwood Football Club this season, and four years since last playing finals football.
Compound that with the guillotine that favourite son and head coach Nathan Buckley, has positioned himself under, and you have all the ingredients for another intriguing year at the Holden Centre.
A successful AFL season consists of countless elements, however I have narrowed it down to the most influential factors affecting Collingwood’s 2017 season:
Form of Jamie Elliot
After bagging a team-high 35 goals in 2015, Elliot missed the entirety of last season due to back issues.
Athletic, influential, and a strong contested mark for his size, Elliot has the ability to be an instant game changer for Buckley’s forward set up. The proven match winner has enjoyed a solid pre-season, highlighted by his reassuring performance in the recent intra-club game, and could be the pivotal component to Collingwood’s success in 2017.
The pairing of Elliot and Alex Fasolo, along with emerging star forward Darcy Moore, is capable of leaving defenders shaking in their boots for years to come.
Key defensive setup
Perhaps the biggest question mark is the defensive setup Buckley will operate, particularly the key defensive pillars. The exits of Jack Frost, Nathan Brown, and Jonathon Marsh, have significantly tested the Pies depth down back, with the only replacement coming in the form of journeyman Lynden Dunn.
The return of Lachlan Keefe may not impact the back half, with reports suggesting he has been spending the pre-season training as a forward. This leaves the injury prone Ben Reid, veterans Dunn and Goldsack, and draftee Sam McLarty as the remaining key defensive stock.
The health of Reid and the performance of the entire back half is crucial to the Pies’ success to give their star-studded midfield and unique forward line a chance to return them to September action.
Brodie Grundy’s health
The form of Brodie Grundy in the latter half of 2016 was astounding, surpassing arguably all other young ruckman in the competition not named Max Gawn, through consistently dominant displays.
Grundy is integral to Collingwood’s prospects of finals football, however an injury to the South Australian could prove catastrophic due to their lack of depth in the ruck department. American Mason Cox, who has predominantly played as a key forward over his short career, is seemingly the backup ruck as it stands, with rookie listed 19-year-olds Mitchell McCarthy and Max Lynch, serving as the only other recognised ruckman.
Grundy’s continued development and health is therefore more important than ever in season 2017.
Impact of new recruits
The arrival of veterans Chris Mayne and Daniel Wells raised eyebrows throughout the football world, possibly signalling a loss of patience with the Pies rebuilding process.
With Buckley stating his job hinges on playing finals football in 2017, he will be heavily relying on the duo to produce their best football, whilst also playing a significant leadership role for the young group.
Wells’ polish and poise with the football will provide a much-needed link between the midfield and forward lines, which has been lacking in the previous few seasons. His quickness through the middle of the ground will complement the bevy of inside midfielders at Collingwood’s disposal, and barring injury, figures as a key cog in their elite midfield.
Mayne, in addition to former top five draft pick Will Hoskin-Elliot, bolster the Pies’ options forward of the ball, simultaneously providing much needed forward pressure.
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
I left out Henry Schade from the key defensive stocks, looked capable against the Dons and is a sneaky chance of playing solid senior football this season
Ian Morrison
Guest
Definitely true that have consistency in selection is a huge benefit, something we have not had recently. I am looking forward to the season and am quite bullish about our future. We have a lot of talented players, to me easily the equal of saints, demons, dons, roos, freo, cats, port, and better than lions, blues and suns. The first 5-6 games are critical but I am confident.
Playing Percentages
Guest
Having a regular back 6 who can develop a sense of team within a team is very important. To have consistency and have team mates able to predict with confidence what you are going to do and what you are capable of doing is a hallmark of successful teams. Collingwood need to pick their best back 6 (plus a couple to rotate through) and give them a chance to develop together. Obviously avoiding injury is critical. If our midfielders and forwards play team footy and run both ways, we are looking at 5th to 10th. Of last years 8, North look vulnerable. I'm not sure who else may drop out (but maybe one other team cruelled by injury). Let's assume there are two positions in the 8 up for grabs. The following teams would all think they are a good chance of taking a spot: Melbourne, St Kilda, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, Fremantle. 6 into 2 does not go. I see it as very likely that Collingwood could make progress as a team without making the finals. If this is the case then I think Buckley gets one more year, we have developed a pool of young talent who might take another year to realise their potential.
Go Pies
Guest
GO PIES looking forward to this year.
hurley
Guest
Glad to hear positive thoughts re. the back six. The core group : Reid, Howe, Dunn, Maynard, Goldsack, Langdon, Sinclair, Keefe & Ramsay (this kid looked like he was born on a half bank flank) will hold it down if they can stay available. I don't really see the need to flirt with Keefe in the forward line. Moore, Fasolo, White, Elliot, Cox, Crocker, Mayne, Blair would form the basis up forward. With a great stock of midfield and utilities that many clubs would love to have: Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Treloar, Crisp, Adams, Wells, De Goey, Aish, Varcoe, Greenwood, Smith, Phillips. There's potentially a 28 man squad to be reckoned with. The list is healthy and probably needs at least one more year of playing together to be truly potent. But I would expect to see them challenge for the bottom half of the eight this year. The big question is still whether Buckley is the man to take them further. I really hope he is and he deserves better than one more season to achieve a finals appearance. However, if it doesn't work out, there's a guy well apprenticed and with an approach to the game that instills commitment, Scott Burns.......bide your time.
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
i also think that Keefe may still play in defence, he looked reasonable there before his ban and there's a role for him if he can grab it. Scharenberg is an exciting prospect who should improve our ball movement from defence, lets hope he stays healthy!
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
I do believe that the return of Elliot, the addition of the new recruits, and the natural progression of some younger players should bolster our overall depth. Plenty of medium sized players and not enough talls in my opinion however, which could be our penultimate downfall
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
Agreed, continuity is vital to a successful footy club and is something that has evaded us for the last few seasons. In saying that, the Bulldogs managed to win a flag after suffering numerous injuries to key players.
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
Completely agree, perhaps it's a structural issue but the forward pressure has been missing in recent times. Mayne is an elite tackler for his position however and should help us improve in that area. Will need others to come with him though.
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
Pendles, Treloar, Sidebottom etc. shine year after year, if the next ring of players can step up and assist them on a weekly basis we'll be a real shot at finals footy
Justin Ahrns
Roar Guru
Pretty much on the money I think. The defense for Collingwood is the main issue, as well as the health of their forwards as you mentioned. I can see them making the finals if they have a terrific season, but anything short of their best will see them miss out again I think.
jonty smith
Roar Guru
Ramsay, Schazza, Dunn, Reid, Langdon, Aish, Wills, Oxley, Crocker, Maynard, Sinclair, Howe, Adams. I don't think our defensive stocks are as wretched as is made out. That said, it's not premiership winning but with Maynard, Sinclair, Schazza, Ramsay, Wills, Aish it has potential to have 'great' status in a couple of years. The recruitment of Dunn to help out these young defenders for a couple of years so that there is some experience down there with Goldsack and Reid also able to play that role and Adams and Howe both capable of being great defenders
Ian Morrison
Guest
I don't think Keeffe is a ruse but more an exploration of possibilities. He is not really needed up forward and down back will depend on the opposition's forward structure. I think you will see him play both ends during the preseason games. Brown was a great contributor to 2010 but the past 2 years he has started to lose things a bit, Frost was mediocre and Williams, tough, but totally one-sided. I believe we have improved.
Stewie
Guest
Definitely agree that it's your worst 10 players, and those players from 22-30 on the list which really counts. Look at Collingwood in the past 6 years, who have had a great to excellent top end of talent, but once they get injured who's left? It's why I think that Melbourne will be behind the Saints this year and might miss the eight. Compare that to the 2012 Swans grand final team. Sam Reid was the number 1 forward, and Lewis Jetta was their leading goalkicker that year. Josh Kennedy was a good midfielder, but not the elite clearance monster he is today. Definitely not much star power there at all. Yet they won the flag, because everyone did their role really well. Two of the best defenders that day were Lewis Roberts-Thompson and Alex Johnson who was only 18 at the time.
Stewie
Guest
Yeah I've actually argued in the past that Collingwood's defence has actually improved since 2016. Lost Frost and Brown, who really weren't too flash at all. Lynden Dunn is actually an improvement on those guys. I, like many, was expecting Keeffe to play as a key back with Dunn and Reid, so hearing him playing as a key forward/ruck was surprising, especially when they have Cox and White who can do that. Wouldn't be surprised if this was an elaborate ruse, and Keeffe actually does play in defence. It just makes sense! But the big thing is that they are mostly injury free. Having Scharenberg and Ramsey on the rebound with Maynard will be something new for the Pies, and the potential is high.
Ian Morrison
Guest
I said this on another post - I'd like to look at the question slightly differently. My belief, long held, is that the 3rd tier players (bottom 6-7 if you like) are the difference. Last couple of years, this group of players has been our weakness due to injuries, youth and development. Look at Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong in recent years, and see why they have been so successful. So, who are those 6-7 players that need to step up or be replaced? Have we improved the group by the addition of Wells, Maine, WHE, Dunne and the draft? I think we have and if our Tier 1 and 2 players stay fit and develop further, we can be a force.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Agree the Pies have had rotten luck with injuries. They really need some respite on that front if they're any chance of pushing on in 2017.
Bravohorse
Guest
The last couple of seasons have been ruined by injuries. Most clubs would struggle with injuries so that is certainly a key to enjoying a successful season. Taylor Adams can fall back and defend if necessary, so not so worried about defence as Marley Williams and Nathan Brown continually turned the ball over and will not be missed. Looking forward to a great year from the Pies.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Collingwood's forward line will need a lot more than Mayne to apply defensive pressure. Blokes like Elliott and Fasolo are good offensively but don't 'run both ways'. Collingwood's mids aren't bad at applying team defensive pressure but they have to cover too many freeloaders in their forward line.
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
Sweet, there are only 4 things needed to be sorted out for 2017!!! I was worried we had at least a dozen issues!! Just joking, like all good Collingwood people, I'm very optimistic for this season. Elliot, Grundy and Reid are all key as you mention, but cant help but think that Treloar, Adams, De Gooey, Sidebottom and Pendles are the main guys that need to step up (or need to remain they high level they already are in Pendles case) Lets go Pies!!!!