Super Rugby preview: ACT Brumbies - fourth in Australia, but it's tight

Following on from the Western Force, who kicked off the series of 2017 Australian Super Rugby team previews last week, is the ACT Brumbies.

I’ve pegged them for fourth spot in the Australian conference for the purposes of creating an order, but I think we’ve all agreed so far that a very tight local conference looms in 2017.

After qualifying for the finals for the last four seasons in a row, the Brumbies face an uphill battle to stretch that to a fifth.

In farewelling Stephen Moore, David Pocock, Matt Toomua, and the recovering Christian Lealiifano, the Brumbies lost upwards of 470 Super Rugby games worth of experience in key positions. Add Robbie Coleman and Joe Tomane into the mix, and there’s another 150 games of experience gone out wide as well.

You don’t just replace lost experience like that; and that’s the magnitude of the Brumbies’ rebuild this season.

Forwards
Despite the loss of Moore and Pocock, the forwards will remain the Brumbies’ strength this season.

Ben Alexander, Allan Alaalatoa and Scott Sio up front, Rory Arnold and new skipper Sam Carter in behind, and Scott Fardy, Jordan Smiler, Jarrad Butler and new recruit Chris Alcock have all seen plenty of Super Rugby action.

The spot at hooker will be really interesting, to see how the Josh Mann-Rea/Robbie Abel/Saia Fainga’a pecking order plays out. Mann-Rea has been a serviceable deputy to Moore, but is he a starting player? Has Robbie Abel got the ability to convert bench cameos into a week in-week out campaign? And how much does Fainga’a have left in the tank? He’s played just 19 games in the last two seasons, with 11 of them coming from the bench.

At lock, Arnold looked fit and mobile at the Brisbane 10s over the weekend, which was a welcome sight, and it’ll be interesting to see how Tom Staniforth fits in the rotation, along with Blake Enever. Staniforth played blindside flanker surprisingly effectively during the NRC, but the backrow stocks means this probably won’t continue.

The biggest question for 2017 is what form the Brumbies backrow will take on.

Fardy is a given, but who takes on jerseys 7 and 8 is far from certain. I believe Butler will start the season in one of them. He’s an on-field leader, and has been one of the Brumbies most consistent players over the last few years.

Alcock has played just 15 games in the last three seasons; a combination of injury and playing second fiddle to Western Force skipper Matt Hodgson. But the end of last season might give a clue: he came back and played the Force’ last four games, starting all of them at open side, and going the full 80-minutes in all four. If he can stay fit, he could become a very handy signing.

The backrow wildcards will be a couple of young recruits. We still haven’t seen a lot of Lolo Fakaosilea so far, but young Rob Valetini showed enough pace and physicality at the 10s to show that he could definitely add something if he gets a shot. Ex-Red Ben Hyne has shown plenty of versatility between 6 and 8, too.

Backs
Another week closer to the start of the season, and we’re still no closer to knowing what the Brumbies backline will look like.

The easy bit is Kyle Godwin and Tevita Kuridrani in the centres, but working in either direction from there only raises more questions.

With Tomás Cubelli out for a still-to-be-determined period of time, Joe Powell will definitely start at scrumhalf. His understudies are very unknown though. The Brumbies signed Ryan Lonergan well before he’d finished Year 12 last year, and even the Australian Schoolboy himself suggested game time was a long shot in 2017. They brought Uni of Canberra Vikings NRC scrumhalf Brent Hamlin into the squad for the Brisbane 10s with Powell and Lonergan on ice, and it might make sense to extend this deal.

Ex-Southland recruit Wharenui Hawera appears to be in the box seat to start the season at flyhalf, with youngster Nic Jooste still nursing a quad complaint. Hawera was similarly cotton-wooled for the Tens. But worryingly, the Brumbies looked at their most dangerous with 43-year-old Andrew Walker at first receiver.

And that’s going to be the single biggest issue for the Brumbies in 2017. We all know that the driving maul is their default setting for finding points when they’re not coming elsewhere, and if their lineout works well this season, that will obviously remain the case.

But this can’t be a revival led by mauling; the Brumbies need to find some spark, and use the strengths of Godwin and Kuridrani in midfield to create opportunities for the blokes out wide. That has to be their priority this season.

Key player
There’s a number of players who need to play key roles, but if a guy like Tevita Kuridrani is having a strong season, then there will be plenty of things going right for the Brumbies.

By the same token though, Kuridrani is now 25 and has played more than 70 Super Rugby Games and more than 40 Tests.

He needs to be looking for the ball more himself this season, and be the creator as much the beneficiary. And he’ll be the marked man in Brumbies backline, too; teams will know that keeping Kuridrani quiet will go a long way toward keeping the Brumbies in check. But if he’s good enough to be ‘the man’ the Brumbies need him to be, his teammates and the team itself will be the major benefactors.

First five rounds
Crusaders (away), Sharks, Force, Waratahs (away), Highlanders

I reckon we’ll know how the Brumbies’ season is going to play out by the end of this stretch of games. There’s a couple of games they probably should win, and another couple they could win if they’re good enough.

There’s a very real danger they could also lose all five, too.

And this, I think, is going to sum up the Brumbies season. They will win games they probably shouldn’t. They will almost certainly lose games they probably shouldn’t. But for a team losing so much experience in one fell swoop, and having to rebuild combinations on the run, that’s the way it’s going to be.

If they finish anywhere near the top half of the table, they’ll have overachieved in 2017.