An AFL draft lottery is long overdue. It is almost unfathomable in the modern era of online betting and media scrutiny that losing games is rewarded in such direct fashion.
The current system of ‘bottom team gets top pick’ discourages teams to win games for their fans towards the back end of the season. The number one pick is the most significant reward a football club can receive (besides a flag), a choice of the best 18-year-old in the land, and a potentially team-altering moment.
So why should we hand it to the worst performed team? The answer is obvious, they need the assistance to rise up the ladder, however a draft lottery would assist struggling sides while keeping the integrity of the league paramount.
The AFL needs to emulate the NBA’s draft lottery model. In the NBA, the 14 sides who do not make the playoffs are placed in the draft lottery, each with a mathematical chance of getting the number one pick. The worse win/loss record a team has, the greater their chances are of attaining the number one pick, followed by the second, third, fourth etc.
The bottom team has 25 per cent chance, the 14th bottom side has 0.5 per cent chance.
The teams who made the playoffs receive the remaining picks in the same fashion as the AFL currently operates, for example, the championship team would receive pick 30 (there are 30 teams).
This model could be easily copied by the AFL, with the ten non-finals sides placed in the draft lottery to decide the top ten picks, and the eight finals sides to receive picks 11-18 in the order they finish the year.
If this system was used last season, the draft lottery odds for the number one pick would have looked like this (approximate figures).
Essendon 30 per cent
Brisbane 20 per cent
Fremantle 16 per cent
Gold Coast 12 per cent
Carlton 7 per cent
Richmond 5 per cent
Collingwood 4 per cent
Melbourne 3 per cent
Port Adelaide 2 per cent
St Kilda 1 per cent
Although I certainly do not believe tanking is anywhere near as significant an issue in the AFL compared to other sports, a lottery system as displayed above will increase the likelihood of struggling sides to continue to play their best possible football and please their paying members, as a result of the uncertainty that the lottery provides.
One can not simply finish last and be rewarded with the game’s top prize.
Let me take you back to the year 2009, Melbourne and Richmond met in Round 18 in a battle of the battlers. The loser of the match would have a grip on the wooden spoon, with the Demons suspiciously playing players out of position and ultimately losing the match thanks to a Jordan McMahon goal after the siren.
Melbourne went on to receive the first pick, as well as the second pick through the priority pick system. All this could have been avoided with the implementation of a draft lottery, as it dissuades such negative tactics due to the ‘luck’ nature that it embodies.
One final thought. How can the AFL punish Essendon by suspending key players embroiled in the supplements saga, only to reward them for finishing bottom with the number one pick (Essendon selected Sandringham Dragons star Andrew McGrath)?
It defies logic.
The draft lottery system isn’t flawless, but in contrast to the AFL’s current system, it’s simply more practical and would protect the integrity of our great game (not to mention being an exciting night of television!)
So please Gill McLachlan, don’t think, do!
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
A 100% chance at the number 1 pick instead of having a 30% chance statistically increases the incentive to lose. If the reward is 70% less likely, the incentive to lose significantly lowers.
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
Thanks Ryan! I agree, the draft lottery is an exciting time of each season, would love to watch it all unfold in the AFL
Scott
Guest
I also think the lottery should be for the first 10 picks only. Then return to the draft as it is now. 1st gets 18th then last gets 19th and so on
Bozza
Guest
So why are you more likely to try and win? If a side is likely to 'tank' for the certain top pick, what stops them from doing so to get the best chance at it? Name the side that has finished last that shouldn't have finished last? Then there is the fact that only 4 Number One draft picks have become Premiership Players. Luke Hodge was as a result of the pick being traded, Drew Banfield was picked at Number One by the team that had won that seasons minor premiership and Tom Boyd won it with a different team. Stop trying to solve problems that don't exist.
Scott
Guest
I wrote a long comment to reply to this but it's disappeared. I'll try again. In that situation Carlton would have been just as likely to finish last in 2015 and not got pick 1, so would have been unlucky in 2015 then lucky in 2016. The actual draft picks them self are irrelevant as the player picked 1st is rarely the best player anyway. It's what a team is prepared to do to get that pick. It might not even be pick 1. There could be 3 standout players and it's 15th who's trying to tank. Either way the main thing no one wants is games being thrown and messing up the whole comp. Even if it happens once it's a bad thing. Under the system I'm proposing if the bottom team didn't get the 1st pick and the 17th team did, then their odds of getting the 2nd pick would be 66.6%. Most the teams would probably get the player they were after anyway and the botton couple of teams will at least get a quality player at a high pick. But they can't directly manipulate anything to get that player they want. I agree that some teams may still try tanking, and should be punished the same, but it's a big risk to take for a chance rather than a certainty. I think it's a minor change that won't affect that much but will at least give less insentive and less reason to be accused of tanking
Slane
Guest
A glorious day indeed!!!
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I love this idea so much. I've written about it before. I suspect if the AFL implements 17-5 they will also have a draft lottery. I'm only a casual follower of the NBA, but by god I tune in to the draft lottery every year.
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
That is why the draft lottery could be effective, Brisbane would be more likely to try perform at their best if the odds for getting the first pick were 20%, in comparison to finishing last and having 100% certainty
Macca
Guest
" it’s far from flawless but has its benefits" The only benefit is that it stops something that isn't happening from happening - I would want something pretty flawless to take that benefit.
Macca
Guest
"As it stands now, there’s certainty in the reward for lack of effort. Just a little bit of uncertainty should be enough." How about the uncertainty created by the risk that if you get caught tanking you lose that draft pick plus more?
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
As i stated, i do agree that tanking is not a large issue in the AFL, however implementing the lottery would decrease the temptation of clubs to rest players and 'experiment' with their lineups late in the season, thus making for a greater spectacle for the fans
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
That is a good point which I'm sure the AFL would investigate if they did decide to eventually go down the lottery path, the bottom sides do need help in order to improve their position. As i said, it's far from flawless but has its benefits
Scott
Guest
Yes but it would be highly unlikely they would. The point of what draft pick a team gets is not that relevant. It's rare that the number 1 pick is the best player anyway, it's throwing a game which is an issue. It's what a team will do to get the pick/player they want. It could be that there are 3 standout players and it's an issue of finishing 15th or 16th. Your right that they may still throw it for a chance but it's far less likely. I actually totally agree with you all that this isnt a big problem and it pisses me off when people come up with new crazy ideas for the draft. I do however think the lottery (to the 1sd round only) is such an easy scenario that can still be very fair and eliminate the chance of tanking. If even one game is manipulated in our lifetime it's a loss. The bottom teams are still gonna get good draft picks in a lottery and will prob still get the player they wanted anyway.
Neil from Warrandyte
Guest
It's picking a team before the start of the season. ie/ Essendon finishing last, last year has first pick of which team it aligns itself with for the upcoming season. It may pick Brisbane if it believes Brisbane will finish last this season. Brisbane may well finish 10th, however Essendon's advantage is they get to pick from all teams. Brisbane, having finished 2nd last gets to pick next of the remaining 17 teams available. They may think Carlton will finish low down in the upcoming season so align their draft picks with them and so on. Therefore no teams are aligned with their own performance, but on the performance of the team they nominate.
Macca
Guest
Scott - Under your system ther would have been a chance that Carlton could have got the number 1 pick in 2015, then won 7 games and finished 15th and got the number 1 pick again - even as a Carlton supporter I think any system where that is even a remote chance is worse than a system where tanking is possible but never done and punishable if found. And if a team would tank for a 100% chance there is every likelihood they would tank for a 50% chance.
Scott
Guest
I agree the bottom teams should get the picks. That's why I think having a massively favourable lottery would work. Perhaps 50% 18th 25% 12.5% right down to point 0.001 or whatever. It would be incredibly likely the teams would fall in the same order but just the fact that Essendon would only have a 50% chance of getting that player would eliminate it altogether
Paul D
Roar Guru
So what happens when 9th place wins the lottery one year? You're proposing a solution that is essentially trying to replicate the existing draft order while introducing uncertainty and the chance of distorting it. If you want to shake it up a bit have draft picks based on an average of the past 3 years finishing places rather than just a single season - if a side wants to be consistently terrible for a full 3 years just to move up the draft a few spots that's their call but I doubt there will be many fans waiting for them when they finally emerge from the mire
Scott
Guest
That's the point though really. With the lottery there would be no reason to manipulate a game. As it stands Essendon are guaranteed number 1 yet in the lottery Brisbane could get it
Macca
Guest
" but at least the lottery solves a problem that could arise in the future" To me the rewards of solving a problem we don't have but "could" arise in the future are far outweighed by the risks that the very bottom teams miss out on getting the payer that could actually see them improve. Gold Coast won as many games as Brisbane and Essendon combined while Carlton won 1 more but under this method could have they both could have had picks before the bottom 2 - that is just a recipe for a side like Brisbane to stay bottom.
Scott
Guest
I agree with you that teams rarely tank, but at least the lottery solves a problem that could arise in the future. It's possible that an absolute prodigy will come around 1 day. Some 7 foot 2 bloke that runs like Usain Bolt and can kick it 70 metres. An absolute freak that is undoubtedly going to be a star. Not saying this will ever happen, but if it did I think teams may flirt with tanking then. I think they could make the lottery highly likely that the teams will still get the picks in the same order, like 50% for last and 0.1% for 9th. Just the fact it's not guaranteed will be enough to stop tanking for good