Blue Diamond day at Caulfield is one of the marquee race days of what we usually call the Melbourne autumn, even though it always falls in summer.
Three Group 1 among a full card of black-type races awaits us, complemented by Winx in the Chipping Norton up at Randwick as the Sydney carnival takes shape.
The Blue Diamond is the stand-out feature, the first Group 1 for two-year-olds that we see each racing season. This year’s edition has been an incredibly even betting race for a number of weeks, and even now we’re seeing six horses at the top of the market between $5.50 – $7.50.
Catchy is the nominal favourite, undefeated through the three runs in her career, including the key Prelude lead-up two weeks ago where she ground down the talented Limestone, which isn’t here.
She also claimed the scalp of Property two starts back, which might give us an indication that she has the colts division covered, or at least those that have come through the Preview/Prelude series. Craig Williams had the choice of roughly 141 juveniles for this race, and chose Catchy, so she has all the right credentials.
With Catchy only just lipping out Limestone in the Prelude last start, it’s worth looking at Tulip who was lipped out by that same opposition in the Preview and hasn’t raced since.
A month between runs may not always be ideal for the precocious two-year-olds, but David Hayes obviously wanted to keep her separate from stablemate Catchy, and he’s been a master at prepping this age group since Jesus first rode in the Bethlehem Cup.
The other filly in the market is Formality, also from the Hayes yard, and she has taken a different path again, debuting at Werribee with an emphatic win before taking on the boys in the Chairman’s Stakes, and beating them with authority.
It’s clear that Hayes and company have three quality fillies on their hands, and all have strong claims.
The colts division is similarly even, with the market suggesting Pariah is the best chance among them after a closing second in the boys Prelude, which followed his debut win at Group 3 level in Sydney. Having the Snowden name attached wouldn’t harm his chances in the eyes of punters either, and he seems one of the most likely to appreciate the step out to 1200m.
Property won that Prelude, after taking out the Preview too. Three times he’s been to the races, with Catchy being the only horse to finish in front of him. He was on debut that day, while she’d had the benefit of race experience, and from a dream barrier he’ll have his chance to turn the tables assuming Joao Moreira gives him the run of the race.
Jukebox is the other main fancy, and has been a bit of a streetcorner tip this week despite only coming through a maiden and a restricted Inglis race. It was the style he won in that should hold him in good stead in this class, and Ciaron Maher continues to make a favourable impression in the training ranks. He has been exuding an air of confidence.
Frankly, it’s hard to make much of a case for anything else. Perhaps Cao Cao can improve if ridden a bit quieter, and might add value to the multiples. Roomooz can run a drum if the Catchy form proves superior to the boys.
Selections: 1.Jukebox 2.Catchy 3.Property 4.Tulip
The Oakleigh Plate is a great sprint handicap of long standing, with a tradition of large fields and big odds results amid blanket finishes.
Extreme Choice is the strong favourite, and you don’t see many winning this race in single figure odds, let alone sub-$4 as he currently is. In the last 14 years, only Lankan Rupee, Starspangledbanner, Weekend Hussler and Fastnet Rock have won in single figures, so it’s a distinguished list.
Of course, the latter three of those were three-year-olds like Extreme Choice, and already Group 1 winners, as he is too. His credentials are sound, and his breathtaking first-up win in the spring makes him hard to tip against.
I Am A Star is also a Group 1 winning three-year-old, taking out the Myer Classic against mares in a race where plenty of star fillies have come undone. She returned with a superb second against older horses again in the Rubiton, including Chautauqua and Hellbent, and must be a chance if she’s not looking for further.
Fell Swoop is as honest as the day is long, and will be around the mark as he always is. Hellbent was going to be anything at the top of the spring, but has lost some of his lustre. He can finish off a race like few can, and the wide draw is his friend here.
Sheidel had a good spring and has a touch of class but is weighted accordingly as a mare. Thermal Current has picked his way to consistent wins through his career and is in form but probably lacks the class. Flamberge has the class, but also the weight to go with it. He ran his best race for a year last week in the Lightning.
Looking for some value, two that stand out are Kaepernick and Ocean Embers.
Kaepernick was right with Takedown first-up in the Shorts last prep, and that horse ended the spring as a Group 1 WFA winner. Kaepernick also ran into Spieth in the spring, running him within a length, giving him 3.5kgs mind you, and that horse could well have two Group 1 WFA wins to his name in an alternate reality where luck was distributed evenly across the track.
The only time Kaepernick has seen Caulfield, he finished third, behind only Group 1 winner The Quarterback, and consistent Group 1 competitor Fast N Rocking. His first-up record is strong, and he is something of an 1100m specialist. $15? Yes please.
Ocean Embers loves Caulfield, has from around Group 1 horses and gets handicap conditions to suit here. She’s drawn out wide with Kaepernick, which won’t harm them at all, in a race where a high barrier number is often seen in the winners frame. They’ll be the two steaming late.
Wild Rain can show up at a price, Faatinah can fill a hole on his day, and El Divino might figure if everything goes his way.
Selections: 1.Kaepernick 2.Ocean Embers 3.Extreme Choice 4.Fell Swoop
The Futurity Stakes is the Group 1 weight-for-age feature on the card, and it looks like a benefit for Black Heart Bart over 1400m.
He’s already won three Group 1 races at the track, including two over this distance, one of which was the Orr Stakes here two weeks ago.
Turn Me Loose was second in that race, in what was a welcome return to form after a year in the wilderness. He at least has enough quality to cause favourite-backers a moments pause if he can pinch a healthy break at the turn.
Palentino is flying for a bit further and a bigger track, but he’s going to be a hard horse to find the right race for at this time of year, especially if he doesn’t go the Sydney way. Ecuador will give his all but be outclassed again, as he was in the Orr. Tosen Stardom is the interesting runner.
Selections: 1.Black Heart Bart 2.Turn Me Loose 3.Ecuador 4.Fast N Rocking
Despite all of the Group 1 racing described above, the highlight of the day for many people will be watching Winx dominate the Chipping Norton Stakes up in Sydney. As hard as it is to believe, she may have even come back better than ever based on her Apollo Stakes win first-up.
Hartnell was in second, three lengths in arrears, and he had four lengths on the next best. If the wonder mare wasn’t around, we’d be marvelling at the ease with which he was putting paid to his rivals.
Just like Hay List with Black Caviar before him, it is the undisputed class of Hartnell that allows us to appreciate how truly great Winx is.
Selections: 1.Winx 2.Hartnell 3.Endless Drama 4.Preferment
michael steel
Guest
The CF ORR and THE FUTURITY should be run in March or April so that they can be genuine Group 1 races.
Jeff dustby
Guest
The futurity should be a group 3
andrew
Guest
hope you had a few coins on matty last night who was well supported and also tigidid who got up and drifted out to $15. possibly heading to caul today with too big a kitty
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I think I'll go with Catchy and hope that rolls into Extreme Choice in the Oakleigh - I like the saver on Kaepernick too at the odds.
1der
Guest
The news from the Hayes stable is that Tulip has improved 5 lengths on last run. The markets are suggesting same.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Love your work Andrew.
andrew
Guest
Mv 2 –matty is promosing horse who just won on debut but showed good improvement at 2nd run in tougher race. I like that in a horse. First run 2nd prep, further improvement can be expected and has good speed and suspect he might be too quick for them and then bob up in a stks race at flem in a few weeks. 4 – cant not back tigidig, but this is much tougher race, still, he has the recent form, the valley form and race fitness. Small bet ew. 6 – jimivag is due for a win and not sure oncidium can give it a start and 6kgs and beat it. good tough run last start in similar/stronger race when up near lead in a fast run race all the way. Caul sat 1 – surprised the early price posted assign. Second bullet deserved fave, but this is stronger race no doubt, and he has no 2nd up form, id be risking him at 2.5 to peak again, id want 3.5 to back him. llyod knocks up winning the sat metro staying races and his strike rate is in the order 35% this season for runners in races 2000m or longer. Assign did win first up last autumn. Big diff in my view about first up form from spring to autumn (weather and length until target races). Assign did win this race last year. His caul form is obv very good too. I think his form from the spring class wise, is a peg or two above some of these who showed form at the back end of spring, he was running in the peak part of spring. How fit is he first up. who knows. But stable have engaged their preferred front running jockey which is a good sign that its forward, or that they intend to race it on the speed. No good thing, but def see a scenario whereby it leads or sits 2nd and is just too strong. 2 – split bet here and against the faves. Benz is a smar SA horse who scored a good win over in spring at MV beating the smart kens dream (that form ties in favourably/comparably with derryn) . Subsequently took on open class horses in ADL in what proved a hot form race (cavaloce, lord aspen). Tried over longer trip but didn’t run them after that, although its 1400m run was still good (easily beating gratwick who it meets better at weights). It is well weighted relative to official rating this scale. entitled to try it over longer in spring, but reckon it will be kept to sprinting this prep and think it can run well here fresh. Draws for a perfect run. in fact, I cant see it not being one off rail one pair back from the leaders. 2nd bet is yulong xongzing who was tragedy beat in ADL last start and prior win was good. they are only exposures to dry ground. Benz did beat it easily last prep giving it weight, but that was heavy track. prepared to risk into orbit from the hawkes yard whose horses are notoriously unders (outside big races) and derryn very well found in the market for mine. very hard to grade the Manfred as a formline given slow tempo (2yo’s ran 2l quicker) even though hey doc since won. 4, 6, 10 also have winning claims. Going wide this leg in early quad. 3 – farson deserved fave in a very weak race for G2 standard, though in fairness, you need to look at these retrospectively 12-18mth on. But, I cant come in at such a short quote. interesting the 4 market faves have 4 outside gates. Im with cliff hanger who has come back well this prep on the dry tracks, good option to spell and miss spring and have a real dip in autumn. Oak door form obv reads well, certainly good enough for this (ie, top rater is 72), and last win over older horses of good merit noting 3rd horse since win (and horse it beat in doing so since won too). fantastic pedigree from fast UK miler/2000m type and dam was melb city winner at 1600m. safe ew bet. 4 – tough race. furyhk unders and vulnerable here. had a dream run last time and a perfect ride, and won accordingly. But, a few turnarounds are possible. It carried a sig fitness adv on many rivals that day. This diminishes. It also gets a few kgs weight swing against rivals from same race. add these together and the gap is narrowing. As for whether it gets the same dream run and others do not, you are speculating, but I can see this a messy race with many backmarkers involved, which could help or hinder any runner – pending how they are ridden, but it brings an element of luck into it moreso – something you don’t want at a short quote. first go 1400m for furyk also, not a knock per se, but a box you cant tick off before jumping at $2.70. I think the winner comes through that race, but very unsure whether its jen lyyn, oregons days, savannah amour or Estelle collection. None of these 4 had runs anywhere near as good as furyhk last start. Jen lyn is fitter, proven 1400m and proven class. Oregons day pulled good ground last and is fitter. The latter two are on-pacers who are well drawn who shape for good runs in transit. lean jen lyn who is 2 from 2 1400m, both its wins were from wide draws and both with shinn oboard and comes in 3rd up. 5 – can see a scenario where bart is trapped 3 wide here as lucky huss and rokii have similar early speed and drawn inside it. was trapped 3 wide last time similar situation, but had cover from miss rose de lago. But, even if this ‘worst case’ scenario pans out, he is most likely too good anyway. You just cant knock his caul and 1400m record. You have to rate him on top. 1.80 about the right price. 6 – need to hear announcement regarding tactics for tom melb, as its important for not only him, but entire race shape. Once they said he was going back last week, it was no surprise that burning front firmed up significantly. I’ll assume they are going to roll forward this time and run along (but I will be adjusting my whole approach to this race pending how it is ridden). But trying to put that aside, if USA had not drawn gate 1, id be keen, but he ends up 3 or 4 pairs back the pegs. But for mine, no doubt he is the class runner this race, and 1800m first up looks very good situation. Has it all over stratum star and humidor at the weights from the cantala stks. If tom melb runs along, I think this brings tom melb in with a chance and helps USA, Exospheric and Jameka. If tom melb takes a sit, USA and Jameka can still win, but tom cant. Humidor goes in quad, either scenario, but well enough found current markets for mine against a proven G1 WFA horse like USA and a caul cup winner in Jameka. Prepared to risk stratum star at WFA. 7 – no firm view. Backing pariah. Good luck to those with a fancy. Wide leg. 8 – first impression was typical wide open oak plate, but on further review, don’t think many winning hopes, and they are up the top of the hcps. It’s been a good race in recent times for those up in the weights. Well documented I like the middle/wider draw over 1000-1200m at caul (unless strong north wind which it wont be tomorrow) and think 1, 2 and 3 are all drawn perfectly. You need momentum up and running turning (unless you have a really sharp-short sprint). I’ll prob have a split bet on fell swoop and kaepernick. Fell swoop so consistent and has had a few near misses, his number surely comes up shortly in a G1, and well placed by trainer avoiding lightning and coming here. kaepernick is a horse who loves to get back and run on hard from a strong tempo, so like his barrier, and like him fresh, and form via speith stacks up very favourably. Very interesting they didn’t accept for Newmarket on Tuesday with 2nd noms, so this must a peak target race first up. no knock extreme choice, but need to be good to win with 54kgs as a 3yo, but he is still the untapped horse. Hellbent goes in the quad, needs to lift, far from proven this level, (as per prior preview), but he could. 9 – silent sedition will be tipped by all and sundry and rightly so. A bit like azkedellia in this race last year. She ‘should’ win. personally, I think that she is too short……..but, the more you probe the form, she really should just win. obv her first up run was super, and has won 2nd up over 1400m last autumn. Ran very well on cup day 2nd up in spring over 1400m in a much stronger race than this after similar first up run. I think most punters will be hoping to be alive in quad and just let it ride. Ive had a multi with assign and cliff hanger to place into her to win, hoping to get something running. As for dangers, miss rose de lago had no luck first up 3 wide no cover, she has bounced back from poor runs prior, goes well caul, and whilst here digits look poor, she hasn’t run much this grade recently often in stronger races and she could lead left alone. The other one is one I pushed for a bit last start in written era who had to mark time and then ease last start and its conceivable she could push silent sedition too. I’ll prob take these 2 for lower % in quad or some sort of reverse exacta pending how day is panning out quad/multi wise. ADL 2 – fox hall can lob into a nice spot here in a race with no much early speed and perhaps be too classy first up, even over 1400m conceding fitness to a modest lot. Prepared to risk emphatically over 1400m and also the stokes runner who will drift back and is a maiden and got beat by 14 start maiden winner last time. 3 – vintage quartz shapes as one of the better bets in ADL for the day and should lead or sit 2nd doing no work in a small field and comes with strong vic form. main danger is another coldie who comes through same race, but will be giving it a start and negative weight swing against for being beat. 6 – im not jumping off go the journey even though wongy is replaced by poon. Thrashed them last time and has similar conditions here in that it’s a dry track, 1200m and good draw. Technically up in class, but prepared to risk the higher rated runners (old horses, first up and need longer, or non-winners). 8 – small ew bet baligari who is hard horse to catch, but ran OK last start when off a freshen from aborted trip to qld for magic millions. Gets to preferred parks circuit, draws well to sit on speed, and key jockey change as his best form is with bowditch riding. Fluky horse so cant be confident, but this race has several who are fresh up and/or need longer and/or have moderate recent form. it creates a window for him to get a few things go his way and sneak another win at long odds.
Peter Line
Guest
Hey Cam, nice preview as always. Will you be doing an Oakleigh Plate preview too? Always a few good roughies in the Oakleigh Plate :-)
Cameron Rose
Expert
Roomooz looked okay, but I can't see her beating Catchy, and history says that those behind the top couple in the Prelude's don't turn the tables. I agree Property is the forgotten horse somewhat, but I couldn't mark him at $3.50. Getting good place odds on those up in the market, so having a good crack there might be the play.
Cameron Rose
Expert
If you're really keen on something in the Diamond and you happen to be right, you'll be loving the return you get. I sense I'll just take those six in the quaddie and hope to get away unscathed.
Razzar
Guest
Looks a really great meeting tomorrow. The Blue Diamond with awkward barrier draws for some of the more favoured runners, makes it quite an open race. With that in mind, these are my value runners. Property looks set set for a lovely sit. Has the form to win this. Although it's a harder race most of his main opposition are drawn out. So with luck in getting a run on straightening, he'll be mighty hard to beat. $3.50 rating. Roomooz looks to get a nice run in this, the 1200 looks ideal, after good run last start. $10 rating Wait for no one, is developing each run, so 1200 is very likely to suit, drawn slightly awkward for an on pacer type, but can run a very cheeky race here. $12 rating They're are no stars in this edition of the Blue Diamond so those favoured runners drawn wide, are looking generally poor value at present. The Futurity almost looks Black heart Barts to lose. But this is quite a small field, tempo and tactics can undo a cert in racing. If you like him,, try and hold fire, and see if you can snare evens or better. Good luck Punters.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Tricky day Cam. Will be a fill-up if anyone manage to bag the Blue Diamond winner, let alone a quinella or trifecta ;)