How important are injuries to a team's success?

There was a really long and well researched forum post on a certain other forum-based League website (doubt I can post a link to another website here, even if - as a forum site - it's not really a direct competitor) about the effects of injuries on seasons. Suffice to say that the correlation is strong, no matter which way you count injuries - any of; players used throughout season, total % of games missed by first-choice XVII, position/timing and/or value-weighted injury counts etc. There's usually one or two big outliers, however - more often underperforming the injury-based ladder position model, such as the Raiders in Stuart's first year there as coach. Relatively great run with injury (2nd best I think it was by most measures) yet missed the 8.

Careful Ben ,post police man Dustby may just issue you with a single sentence slap down ,

Oh ,that hurts , cold blooded , instead of criticism how about an "educated" response ! Did you find that in the "Dustbin " ? Ha ha

If every key player from every other team gets season ending injuries... Newcastle might come 15th...

No worries Dan. It was a fair point that you raised and a good topic for discussion. My post was directed more at the discussions that followed your story in any case. The number of injuries in a side may not be reflective though of a teams chances if they do not include injuries to key players (particularly in their spine). For example, Souths losing players like Goodwin, Gray, Tyrrell, Clarke and Turner combined would be less detrimental than losing Reynolds for a considerable period of time IMO. A teams momentum though should be more about the attitude and cohesion within an entire playing squad rather than restricted to just the starting 17. If players are all on the same page and have the right mental approach, commitment to performing as unified group and are focused and sure about their given roles in the team it should be easier to make changes in any given week and still not have the team miss a beat. Some players though like Thurston, Adam Reynolds and Cam Smith are so important to their respective teams that it is bound to have an effect in any case.

Well someone needs to finish 13-16 The teams you mention gave less talent Blaming coaches is the excuse of the uneducated fan

Injuries happen. It's part of the game. THAT is why a club cannot afford to put ALL their eggs in one basket with a couple of over priced marquee signings and should always be on the lookout for young talent with potential coming through the lower grades or not getting an opportunity at other clubs. That said, from memory Souths didn't have too bad a run with injury in 2014 which certainly helped their cause (as it helped the Sharks in 2016). It is a ridiculous assertion though to make an argument that the team with the least injuries have the best chance of winning the competition. Sometimes injuries give young players (future stars of the game) an opportunity they might otherwise never have had and produce form that demands they keep their place in the team. Such a change can be highly beneficial to a teams over all chances. As it did with Alex Johnston in 2014 when Nathan Merritt was out of form and Johnston went on to be the seasons leading try scorer (after the final series). I think that the role of injuries is more significant where it applies to key players in the team (especially in the spine) or players like Sam Burgess at Souths who have a huge impact on the rest of the team. This is particularly important in regards to the duration of their time out of the game. When teams are missing a key player who controls their team and organises their (like Adam Reynolds at Souths) it is always going to have a big impact on the team and put a lot of pressure on other players who may not be ready for it. Just as importantly, momentum is a very important factor in the game, both during a game and also in terms of a teams momentum throughout the season in stringing wins together. Poor form and negative momentum can be hard to break while white hot form and positive momentum can be hard to stop! The Rabbitohs form in 2016 is a perfect example of this going from 9 straight losses (8 BAD games) to 4 straight wins (5 GOOD games) in a row. This is why depth (especially in key positions) is a very important aspect of teams performance in any given year as injuries and absences through suspension and rep commitments are always bound to occur.

bear54 ,excellent point , a combo of both

Your "Turbo" only has 4 cylinders and Carr has 8! Hahahahahahahaha

My Turbo just blew away your Carr !!!

Cronulla and Canberra were steaming towards the finals last year and no man would willingly give up his spot because of a minor injury for fear of losing his position before the big games. The opposite could be said of someone at Newcastle or Parramatta who were out of contention months before the finals. Why push through and risk serious injury? So is the use of less players the reason for success or an indication of it?

Dude? Sweet! Hahahahaha Pay that one! Perhaps if he wore the number 54 Bellyache could scream out "Car 54, Where Are You?" But I don't think you will see THIS "Carr" star in "CRASH" any time soon. Neither will he star in "Gone in Sixty Seconds" which might best refer to "Jimmy the Teflon Jets" career next time he steps out of line or the first time Uate faces a bomb (as he has flippers for hands!) If CARR can just toughen up a bit and develop a bit of mongrel he might just star in "The Fast and the Furious" (he already has the first one covered after catching "Jimmy the Jet" in the Nines after giving him a 20 metre head start!). I guess these days poor old Jimmy is quicker at lashing out at women than he is on a football field. Maybe Josh might get the nickname "Lightning McQueen" if he continues to burn rubber. Either way it is tough to see a kid that grew up in Redfern and is a Souths junior (from his early years) playing for another club. I think Addo-Carr is in for a big year. Adda-Boy!

Its not just the number of players you have to use in a season, its what players are suffering long term injuries and what players are covering those positions. If you have your star player out for most of the season you arent going to win the comp. Imagine North Queensland without Thurston, Melbourne without Smith, Parramatta without Norman. No way would those teams have a chance of being premiers. But its also who replaces them in those key positions. Last year Manly had a forward in the centres, hookers at five eighth and half, a running centre at five eighth. You cant win with players in positions they are not suited for. But certainly a team that has minimal injuries will be far more likely to move up the ladder, than a team who loses players so often the same team cant be put on the field consistently. This means any predictions about what team will make the 8 or win the premiership at this stage are little better than a lottery. Even what seems the impossible could still happen where Cronulla finishes last and Newcastle makes the final four. Such scenarios have happened before and they'll happen again.

When Bellamy fails to sight him he can go with the old classic "Dude where's my Carr?"

"d'At Ol' Carr" caught "Jimmy the Jet" in the Nines! LOL

Dean , kiss o death I think iv blown up there Carr And when Manly poach him you can cry "they stole me Carr " When he gets tackled by Kapow ,"he's smashed me Carr"

Josh Addo-Carr and Young Tonumaipea are pretty handy replacements for Marika Koroibete. Josh is that quick, that I've conjured up some nicknames. Gosh A Datto Car Posh-Audi-Car Wash That Old Car

It's important when injuries occur