The NRL season is just a couple of sleeps away. After I ran through those who would miss the eight, here are the sides that will make it to the pointy end of the season.
8) South Sydney Rabbitohs
A surprising choice for some, South Sydney will be looking to bounce back from a below average 2016. The acquisition of Robbie Farah is going to make the world of difference, and give stability to their spine.
Cody Walker will be their permanent five-eighth this year, which will round out their outstanding 2017 spine which also includes Greg Inglis and Adam Reynolds.
Look for Souths to be surprising many teams this year through their young guns – Braidon Burns, Angus Crichton and Hymel Hunt.
7) Sydney Roosters
After a disastrous 2016, the Roosters will be hoping new recruits Michael Gordon and Luke Keary provide the poise that was dearly needed last season. Being one of the most in form teams of the pre-season after surprisingly winning the Auckland Nines, they will have high expectations to succeed in 2017.
Mitchell Pearce will have the most influential player in guiding the Roosters back into the eight Look for his name come Origin and Dally M time.
6) Canberra Raiders
Shocking everyone last year, the Canberra Raiders will be hoping they can show their 2016 form again leading into the new season. If the Raiders are going to have a big impact this season, their spine – Jack Wighton, Blake Austin, Aidan Sezer and Josh Hodgson will need to lead from the front.
I can easily see Canberra moving much higher up the ladder into the top four but I’m just not convinced as of yet that they are mentally prepared to improve after a wonderful season last year. Sezer is one player who will definitely need to improve next year.
Their 44-0 loss in the trials to the Newcastle Knights provided plenty of doubt in my mind.
5) Brisbane Broncos
The recent predictions for the Broncos to miss the finals astounds me. A team boasting players like Darius Boyd, James Roberts, Anthony Milford, Ben Hunt and Josh McGuire should be a team in the top eight.
The loss of Corey Parker is a blow for the Broncos, although with some wonderful young forwards coming through the ranks, they are still in a great position.
I’m predicting Anthony Milford to lead Brisbane’s charge into the finals, and possibly a Dally M medal.
4) New Zealand Warriors
Yes, the Warriors. When Kieran Foran plays they will field (arguably) the best starting 13 in their history, full of Origin and international stars. If they can stay on the field, I believe they can make a huge dent in this competition.
With the international coach, spine and almost the entire backline, this could be the Warriors team that has been touted for premiership success since their introduction to the competition in 1995.
If the Warriors are going to win a competition, 2017 is their best chance in doing so. Foran and a fit Roger Tuivasa-Sheck are going to be the men who steer this side to the top four and possibly premiership success.
3) North Queensland Cowboys
It’s hard to leave out the Johnathan Thurston-led side out of the premiership running, and I think they will go close again in 2017. The Cowboys were their own worst enemy against the Sharks in the preliminary final last season.
Lachlan Coote in particular will be looking to bounce back after a horrendous finals series. The Cowboys have lost big bopper James Tamou, which is a huge hole to fill in the forward pack. Their most recent signing, Shaun Fensom, will provide some stability to their pack.
If Thurston and co-captain Matt Scott can stay on the field all season, look for the Cowboys again in the finals. I believe they’ll only just miss out in another preliminary finals appearance.
2) Penrith Panthers (Premiers)
Is this the season for the team at the foot of the mountains? The Panthers in 2017 unearthed some of the young superstars of the future, including Nathan Cleary, Te Maire Martin and James Fisher-Harris.
This young Panthers team have the potential to take the premiership by storm this season. Cleary, Bryce Cartwright and captain Matt Moylan will be lining up for their biggest season to date, as they will be in charge of leading this side to premiership success.
The Panthers will be initially missing Josh Mansour and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak due to injury, but they have the personnel to cover these superstars until their return.
I believe this young team, if they can stay on the field, will be taking home the premiership in 2017. Moylan will also go close to the Dally M if he can escalate his 2016 form.
1) Melbourne Storm (Runners up)
Every year it seems as though we predict the Melbourne Storm to slide down the ladder, as the ‘big three’ are one year older, they just seem to improve every season. With their star, Billy Slater finally returning from injury, he will join Cooper Cronk who’s coming off his best season to date, young superstar Cameron Munster and one of the greatest of all time, Cameron Smith.
If Slater is unable to successfully return again, young gun Brodie Croft will come into the side and push Munster back to his best position at fullback.
It’s hard to see the Melbourne Storm not going the distance once again in 2017. I believe they will play the Panthers in the final.
What are your thoughts on the ladder next season? Do you think I have under/over-estimated some teams? Let me know in the comments below.
Twitter: @Joshayyyy21
Joe
Roar Rookie
The Melbourne Storm haven't lost an opening game since 2003. The only time they've started slow (1/3) for the first three games in the last 10 years is 2008...they mostly start with a 3/3 record followed by a 2/3. The pre-origin period is their strongest as they know they lose a lot of players to Origin and usually build up a healthy buffer by then. I agree that in the absence of Slater, Munster should start at fullback but I think the management have banked on Slater not only coming back in the next few weeks but playing out the season so they want Munster to get used to playing 6. Also he has trained there all off season and Young played fullback several time last year. I think its a very high risk strategy that will not work out but hopefully it turns out to be a case of Bellamy knows best.
Herman Hoth
Guest
I know, I was just attempting to stir the pot a bit with you Barry! To be honest that's actually where I would place the Cowboys as well. Likewise, one more sleep. Then we're back in action.
Herman Hoth
Guest
Cheers for the detailed reply Barry much appreciated. I tend to agree with you. I'm not expecting anything too flash from the Cowboys, and am anticipating a finish between 5th-8th. Could finish higher depending on a few factors. Yeah I notice that with Granville when he jumps out of dummy half he usually tries to commit one or two middle defenders and then passes the short ball to a forward who will usually make extra meters due to the fact that there'es generally only one initial defender and the other ones arrive after first contact. Results in a few extra meters every run. It will be good to see whether Lichaa implements little tricks like what you mentioned this year.
Brendon
Guest
I've got to disagree there, I don't think I've ever seen Melbourne start a year strong, bar the massive undefeated street they had. They tend to be slow, winning barely or losing, before coming into their stride after 3 or 4 weeks. I'm not completely sold on Slater either. Why would you not play your best fullback (Munster) and have Croft sit in at 5/8? It may be wishful thinking, but I reckon we may be seeing some deceit in the naming of the teams.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Hey eye I see the Roosters improving. They won three MPs in a row and a grand final within the last four years. The nucleus ofvthat squad is still together. The start of last season was cruelled for them with Pearce, JWH and Cordner out for so long on top of the transition of Maloney, RTS and Jennings. Too much to deal with. Big fellas take a long time to get over knees and JWH never got back to fitness. I think they'll have a very strong 17 with quality players to come in. There'll be a lot of hunger there after last season.
The Barry
Roar Guru
That's fine mate - we all have opinions. I hope it does work out for you - while I have Manly down the list I wouldn't be shocked if they were thereabouts in the run to the semis. I just think a lot of things have to fall in place for that to happen. I'll be more than happy to admit I was wrong. Good luck for the season.
bearfax
Guest
Lets just say that perceptions, and media hype, are too often found seriously wanting. Comments made seem to understate to significance of the impact of injuries Manly suffered last year, and the likely impact of replacements to crucial positions. It all may fall apart with injury, poor coaching, fitness issues. But potentially given the nature of the quite shrewd cost effective changes made at Manly in '17, I can see them very much on the rise in '17. I will again discuss this mid season. They did the same thing around 2004-5, rose in 2006 and by 2008 had won a premiership. And they did it with a bunch of no names with similar potential to players they now have and added only a small sprinkling of big names, such as Lyon and Kennedy, in later years.
Sammy
Guest
@ Bearfax, regarding Manly, having a squad that is on par with last year does not always suggest or imply an improved ladder position. Its all relative. Manly finished 13th last year, but any expected improvement will be neutralized by the improvement of the Sydney Roosters and Parramatta Eels who both finished below Manly last year - 15th and 14th respectively. But the Roosters stopped playing and the Eels were docked 12 points in 2016 - so we can expect a massive improvement from these 2 clubs in 2017. So Manly are really starting from 15th this year.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I'm not missing the point at all. I understand what you're saying - I just disagree. Comparing Manly 2017 to Manly 2016 is irrelevant. How good they are compared to last year won't determine their final position. It's how their 2017 squad compares to every other 2017 squad. Say Manly have improved by 10% but every other club has improved by 80% then they won't finish higher on the ladder. I'm not saying that is what has happened but making an example to show why your fundamental logic of is flawed. I'm not debating whether they're better or worse compared to last year. As for the 'worst injury toll on record' - give me a break. Someone else said literally the same thing about Souths today. Someone else said it about the Knights last week. I've heard it about the Tigers, Panthers and Roosters...
bearfax
Guest
You're missing the fundamental point The Barry. Last year Manly suffered its worst injury toll on record and most of their top players were out for extended periods. What they had on the field was a patch up squad. Yet they made 13th. I'm not suggesting the latest signings are world beaters. But unless Manly has the same problems with injuries this year, the squad they have now is at least as good as they had last year and probably better, so logic would suggest an improved position in the comp. Or doesnt that make sense.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
Definitely true, however, add to Manly the Roosters, Bunnies, Tigers, Eels, Warriors (all of which who did not make the 8) who are in the same boat and look like they could also finish in the Top 8. Unfortunately for Manly and all these clubs in fact, making the 8 will not be easy with such stiff competition. Hence why the betting is so close this year.
The eye
Guest
Agree with most of that except the Roosters..seems a lot of people are taking a quantum leap of faith with this club improving...but where will that come from ? They won 6 games all year last season...3 in the first 1/2 with injuries...and exactly the same number in the last 13 weeks when most returned...the recruits arent good enough to change that...
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
Since I won't unfortunately have the time to draft up an article: 1. Storm 2. Raiders 3. Cowboys 4. Panthers 5. Roosters 6. Eels 7. Titans 8. Broncos 9. Sharks 10. Bulldogs 11. Rabbitohs 12. Warriors 13. Tigers 14. Sea Eagles 15. Knights 16. Dragons
The Barry
Roar Guru
Fair enough mate. I know you've put a lot of stock in the players they've brought in but I don't think they're of the same quality you do. Hastings is a fine player but comes with a bit of baggage and will start as a bench utility at best. Green is solid but was a bit of a journeyman prior to going to England. Questions over whether he will be as good without the same quality of players around him. Lane has been unceremoniously dumped by his past two teams. At his best is very good but has only delivered that for a small part of his career. Uate looks past his best. Sironen is an okay player but hasn't been a regular for the Tigers with their fairly ordinary backrow. Perrett has potential but he's yet to remotely deliver on that potential. Has never been fit enough to play longer than 10-15 minutes. Doesn't bend the line or play with any aggression. Cullen is good - I really rate him - but he'll be starting behind DCE, Green, Hastings and Korisau. Kelly comes with wraps but is untried. If they all work out then Manly could have a very good season - but that's a lot of ifs. Overall it looks like they've added some depth to positions they're already strong in. I did provide the caveat that any teams in the bottom 8 could surge if they get a good run and that applies for Manly. You've got to put teams in somewhere and on paper that's where I see the Eagles.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Plenty of love - just downplaying a bit. Anyone making grandiose statements about how good their teams are going to be is playing with fire. If the Dogs come out playing like they did at the end of last season, it will be a long year. If the forwards can get out of the way and Des lets Reynolds, Mbye and Lichaa run the show who knows. I think Lichaa is better than he's been allowed to show. One of the things I like to see from a dummy half is his first movement. Does he pass straight away, does he go the right way, is he engaging defenders, is he overplaying his hand. Cameron Smith is the best example and almost always picks the right option. Farah is an interesting example because when he's good he's very, very good but it's usually what's going wrong when he's not playing well. When Lichaa started at the Dogs and the bit I saw at the Sharks, I thought he was very good in this area. Instinctively he's a good player but he's been coached to just shovel the ball (not his strength), not run and not kick. Not only does it not show his best but puts pressure on the blokes outside him when they know he's going to pass every time. Long winded answer to a simple question...?
bearfax
Guest
Cant follow your justification for Manly being so low in the field. Sure they wont win the premiership or be in the 4, but their team suffered badly last year because of a new coach, dreadful injuries to key players, no Matai and Stewart for most of the season and when they were there they were passengers, Lyon only produced when at 5/8, yet the team came 13th. With improved personnel, a stronger backup team, a solid 5/8 and players now in their right position, you're seeing them drop a place. Sorry mate but I think Manlly, with a fair go with injuries will just scrape into the 8.and will do better than the Dogs this year
bearfax
Guest
My gut feeling is that Melborne and Brisbane are not going to perform anywhere near as well as being predicted here. Yes Penrith looks the goods. I like Canberra, and North Queensland remain a tough nut. I'm seeing the Warriors as a real threat and the Roosters will be back in the mix. Not so sure about Souths and I'm sensing Brisbane may struggle to stay in the 8
Agent11
Guest
I think Manly and Wests will have some entertaining wins but both too inconsistent. Dragons and Knights fans are probably in for long seasons...
Big Daddy
Guest
Barry and agent 11. Spot on with the bottom 4. No coincidence these 4 teams are the 4 with coaches most under pressure.
eels47
Roar Rookie
Yep, all else being equal I really think this will be the closest finish in a long time. For and against will play a big role come round 26, so it might come down to goal kicking, which unfortunately will hurt the Eels.