2017 season preview: Brisbane Lions

By Stirling Coates / Editor

The Brisbane Lions put together one of the worst seasons in the history of professional football last year. The only way may be up, but is their young list ready to take a meaningful stride?

Let’s have a look at the list changes made in the off-season.

Additions: Chris Fagan (coach), Jack Frost (Collingwood), Jake Barrett (GWS Giants), Matt Eagles (‘The Recruit’), Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Alex Witherden, Cedric Cox, Jacob Allison, Corey Lyons, Mitchell Hinge, Oscar McInerney, Blake Grewar (draft)

Subtractions: Justin Leppitsch (coach, fired), Pearce Hanley (Gold Coast), Daniel Merrett, Trent West, Jaden McGrath (retired), Josh Green, Jackson Paine, Billy Evans, Hugh Beasley, Josh Watts, Josh McGuinness (delisted)

What happened last year?
To put in plainly, Brisbane sucked in 2016.

All eyes were on a suspension-ravaged Essendon to break the futility record books last season, but Lions finished on the same win-loss tally as the Bombers, with less than one percentage point separating them from the wooden spoon.

Their average disposal, mark and point differentials per game were the worst in the competition, and their average losing margin in the 19 losses they racked up was an astonishing 61 points.

To say the Lions were out of their league was almost more literal than metaphorical.

What’s changed?
The big change for Brisbane was obviously the introduction of new coach Chris Fagan. Fagan’s resume is strong, helping Hawthorn win four premierships during his stints there as director of coaching and more recently as general manager of football.

The Lions took an otherwise conservative approach to the trade period after almost handing out contracts over the last few seasons. Jack Frost will go some way to covering the defensive depth lost in Daniel Merrett’s retirement, but otherwise Brisbane turned to the draft to regenerate their extremely raw list.

What needs to happen in 2017?
In recent seasons new coaches have been able to bring about truly incredible changes with seemingly hapless lists. Nobody could have predicted Luke Beveridge making the Western Bulldogs premiers in just two years, and before that Port Adelaide enjoyed a meteoric rise under Ken Hinkley.

Unfortunately, the age of their list suggests Brisbane are still a long-term project.

What needs to happen in 2017 however – not just for the sake of the playing group but for their tortured fans – is for the Lions to just be competitive again.

Over the last three years, Brisbane have lost 52 of the 66 games they’ve played, but the average losing margin in those contests has been an eye-watering 55 points. That is an astronomically bad figure to carry across three whole seasons.

To put it in perspective, Brisbane’s last three seasons have statistically been worse than Gold Coast’s first three years in the competition, with the Lions and Suns posting the exact same win-loss record, but Gold Coast’s average losing margin four points better.

That may not sound particularly damning on the first read, but no established club should ever be in a position where comparisons to newly created teams are even valid. You also have to remember Gold Coast went on to win ten games the next year and seriously challenge for the finals – something Brisbane almost certainly won’t do in 2017.

In any case, slashing their average losing margin will mean a lot more to this club in the long run than pinching one or two more wins.

The verdict
Brisbane appear to have some sense of direction for the first time in a long time. They put in some strong half-game performances at home last season, and a cleaner bill of health will certainly do them good.

That said, finals are still a very long way off.

Prediction: 15th

The Crowd Says:

2017-03-15T01:12:40+00:00

Luke

Guest


It's a good point. They had a coach in Matthews and some key players who resisted the inertia dragging them to the bottom through willpower alone. Brisbane self-destructed to a large extent - some of the board selections, trading decisions and the appointment of both Voss and Leppa (who between them had the coaching, tactical and list management nous of a small piece of driftwood) all contributed. But the compromised drafts was huge. I wonder if the AFL considered this when they refused the priority pick application. If ever a team was deserving of a priority pick it was the lions in 2017 but the AFL seems intent on having the Sydney teams finish 1 and 2 before looking further north again.

2017-03-09T04:40:04+00:00

Keagan Ryan

Roar Guru


It's true a new coach can turn things around, but even Paul Roos took time to reverse Melbourne's fortunes. The Dees are a pretty good comparison to how far back Brisbane are coming from, and I think it's going to take a while. That said, I don't think it's possible to get worse than last year, especially defensively. On Beams - It's a shame we never got to see Rockliff, Hanley and Beams play together. I think in total they played eight quarters together over the last two years. He is a fantastic player, there's no doubt. But he's going to have to manage the knee for the rest of his career, which may influence his impact.

AUTHOR

2017-03-08T11:17:57+00:00

Stirling Coates

Editor


I actually had Brisbane a little bit higher in an earlier version of my ladder believe it or not. The impact of a new coach with a quality background can make an enormous difference, and a healthy Dayne Beams could be a huge difference maker.

AUTHOR

2017-03-08T11:16:13+00:00

Stirling Coates

Editor


Brisbane were actually competitive during the initial Gold Coast and GWS era, going 10-12 in both 2012 and 2013 (albeit after a horrible 2011). I'd say the 'Go Home Five', and some very ill-advised forfeiture of draft picks for average players during the late-Voss, early-Leppitsch era put them where they are now.

2017-03-08T08:15:37+00:00

aw

Guest


It's interesting to say no established club should be comparing its figures to newly established clubs because the newly established clubs are where all of brisbanes talent drain can be attributed. Have a look at how compromised the drafts were when Brisbane were 'bottoming out'. There has never been a worst time in AFL history to be dropping down the ladder as the Lions faced. They were just bottoming out and seeing the last of their premiers retire when a long series of drafts were seriously compromised by GC and GWS. Take a look at the draft picks they would have had in that period without that and wonder why they suck. Also due to class and perseverance of Simon Black, Browny etc, they never dropped right to the bottom even when they had the least talent in the league. It's actually because they refused to lose during those years that they ironically ended up in such a bad predicament.

2017-03-08T01:20:24+00:00

Keagan Ryan

Roar Guru


15th is pretty generous, and I say that as a Lions' fan. It seems like you're releasing your predictions in alphabetical order so I won't ask who you have us on top of, but I'll keep an eye out with interest. I honestly think best case scenario for us is 17 with a typical blend of honourable losses and a much-improved defence.

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