Richmond supporters crave success like children crave junk food. Once they’ve had a taste, the more you feed them, the more they want it.
But try and deny them altogether, particularly when you’ve modified behaviour so they think it’s coming, and you get wild-eyed, ravenous hysteria.
If finals, and the journey to them, in 2013, ’14 and ’15 were like illicit drugs to the Tiger army, then 2016 was the horrible comedown. Damien Hardwick and a new look coaching staff under him are tasked with giving the fervent supporter base their next hit.
A bright and energetic gameplan has been promised, and the early signs are okay. Fingers screeching down a blackboard were preferable to watching Richmond play last year. There was board upheaval, malaise among the membership, and irrelevance was fast approaching.
Damien Hardwick has committed to letting his team play with more freedom this season, in a tacit admission that he was responsible for over-coaching and paralysis-by-analysis previously. It is clear that content from The Roar played a part in the post-season review.
The off-season delivered an active trade period, and a restructuring of the off-field hierarchy at Richmond. There is a glint of optimism in Tiger eyes once more. Suckers.
Richmond Tigers’ best 22
| B | Dylan Grimes | David Astbury | Oleg Markov |
| HB | Bachar Houli | Alex Rance | Kamdyn McIntosh |
| C | Corey Ellis | Dustin Martin | Dion Prestia |
| HF | Shaun Grigg | Jack Riewoldt | Shane Edwards |
| F | Sam Lloyd | Ben Griffiths | Daniel Rioli |
| Foll | Toby Nankervis | Josh Caddy | Trent Cotchin |
| Int | Nick Vlastuin | Reece Conca | Anthony Miles | Brandon Ellis |
Emergencies: Shaun Hampson, Jayden Short, Ben Lennon
Richmond have lost Brett Deledio and Tyrone Vickery, but brought in Dion Prestia, Josh Caddy and Toby Nankervis. The end result is a net gain, in the short, medium and long terms.
Let’s start with the skipper.
It’s rare for a player to reach the heights Trent Cotchin did in 2012 as a 22-year-old, and then to stagnate or go backwards through what should be the prime years to follow. He had strong foot soldiers Shane Tuck and Daniel Jackson for company in his Brownlow year, and the addition of Prestia and Caddy could well elevate Cotchin’s game once more, and Richmond’s with it.
Prestia is a natural ball magnet, as at home on the inside as he is the outside. He just wins the footy, and uses it well enough.
Caddy was top three for clearances, tackles and contested possessions at Geelong in 2015, and also kicked more goals than any other midfielder. Obviously a certain P.Dangerfield changed the dynamic at the Cats last season, and Caddy will be a better player at Richmond than he was at Geelong.
Dustin Martin is one of the nuclear weapons in the AFL, who should be primed for his best season. What he gained in disposals last year, he lost in goals, and a more friendly game plan should see his impact levels reach a career high.
Nick Vlastuin is the other member of a four-man quartet that will be required to balance inside and outside play with resting forward and impacting the scoreboard.
Like Cotchin, Martin and Caddy, Vlastuin is a good isolated one-on-one player, particularly in the air, and with Richmond lacking some obvious support options for Jack Riewoldt, these four will be required to deliver five to six goals a game between them. Expect to see one of them deep inside 50 at all times.
Corey Ellis will be expected to stamp himself in a playmaking role, while Shaun Grigg continues to be an important linking member of the midfield. Anthony Miles may see himself squeezed out of the line-up with the new contested ball additions, and runners like Connor Menadue and Nathan Drummond will be hoping to claim a spot.
Brandon Ellis is at the crossroads as a conservative ball-carrier, and if he continues down that path should be facing VFL time regardless of how many touches he accumulates. Reece Conca is another whose judgement day is fast approaching. In some eyes, it has been and gone.
Nankervis has designs on the number one ruck spot, which was Shaun Hampson’s last year. The ex-Swan has made a big impression over summer, with his appetite for the contest at ground level, sure hands and neat left foot. Already, he is a more rounded player than Hampson ever will be.
The Tigers are lacking in tall forward support for Jack Riewoldt, who we know sets a high standard both inside forward 50 or pushing further up the ground. He needs to be averaging three goals and a goal assist per game, and should be splitting his time 70/30 deep versus up-field.
Richmond’s biggest problem this year is going to be relying on Ben Griffiths in a key forward post. Tiger fans have seen glimpses of game-breaking talent across his seven years in the AFL, but they have also seen many games of no impact, and a lack of physical presence that is disconcerting from a man of his imposing dimensions (200cm, 101kgs).
Ben Lennon has been a disappointment, but is the type of player his team needs as that lead-up linkman between the arcs. If he can’t deliver, and most signs suggest he can’t, then Riewoldt will be required to push up, taking him away from where he can hurt opposition sides the most.
The Griffiths-Lennon dynamic, and their lack of reliability, could cripple any hope the Tigers have of finals football. Riewoldt will have to deal with double and triple teaming. It may force Nankervis to play as a forward with Hampson moving into the ruck, which is plan B, and creates its own imbalance.
Sam Lloyd may be able to take some of the lead-up responsibility, and the rotating midfielders mentioned earlier are also key. Many hands are going to need to make light work.
The Richmond smaller fleet may rise from nowhere to cause problems for the opposition this year. Daniel Rioli has bulked up and looks sharp; Shane Edwards, who is critical to Tiger success when right, might be ready to recapture his best form; and the speedy Dan Butler and Jason Castagna are putting pressure on from underneath.
Alex Rance will lead the defence. Rarely has someone been as comfortable in their own skin off the field, and rarer still has a key defender delivered so reliably on it. He has the most complete all-round game of any key defender this century, with Matthew Scarlett his only equal.
The rest of the Tiger backline looks thin.
David Astbury and Dylan Grimes are both members of Honest Battler’s Anonymous. Oleg Markov was a bright light in a dim second half of 2017. Kamdyn McIntosh will likely find a home as a rangy running type with third defensive tall capabilities.
Bachar Houli, like Grigg, often has a target on his back among Richmond supporters, theory being that he is a turnover merchant under any hint of pressure. The flipside to that coin is that he is a positive playmaker, and his skillset is suited to a more attacking gameplan.
Richmond won eight games last season, and finished 13th on the ladder. They should be measurably better based on new players, new coaches, new thinking, and were coming off finals campaigns in the three years prior.
As for a lot of teams in the lower-mid bracket, the Tigers are capable of surprising and should be in the conversation for finals. If they’re not, Damien Hardwick will likely be executed – metaphorically speaking, of course.
Then again, they are a passionate, unstable and unwieldy bunch at Tigerland…
Predicted ladder spread: seventh-12th
Predicted finish: 10th
Best and fairest: Alex Rance
Leading goalkicker: Jack Riewoldt
All-Australian potential: Dustin Martin, Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt
Rising Star candidates: Jason Castagna, Jack Graham, Oleg Markov
Cam Rose’s AFL preview series ladder
10th – Richmond
11th – Collingwood
12th – Gold Coast
13th – Port Adelaide
14th – Fremantle
15th – Essendon
16th – North Melbourne
17th – Carlton
18th – Brisbane
clint
Guest
ok
Milo
Roar Rookie
Agree Chris we've been left behind by the rebuilds of saints, dees and dogs to some extent. Who knows, we may be saying the blues have also overtaken us in seven days time! Your point on Houli up forward is well made but I don't see us anywhere close in two years hence think he's blocking (along with the others mentioned) another player. My overall pessimism is based on our one dimensional non tactical, non people person (by his own admission) badly communicating coach. I hope I'm wrong.
Chris
Guest
I totally get Houli not going forward, but if they are going to religiously pick him and he slows down ball movement then I think that is more suited to taking a mark and lining up for goal. I would elevate everyone on of our rookies who are hungry over some others. By having Houli in the team who probably has another 2 years of games (but also true of any other mature age player), Richmond are showing they fully support the view that they think they will win a premiership in 2 years and he will be in the team to help achieve that. Otherwise it is just robbing a young player of games who might eventually build into a premiership. I wish we had more of the saints rebuild approach, stay at the bottom longer and get all the players together that will build into contention and play them all together no matter what. They seem to come back with champion teams every 8 years or so doing this - unlucky not to win premierships that's all. The irony is I heard the Bulldogs called a 'doughnut team' about 3 years ago because they had great low age talent, great high age talent but nothing in between. This is exactly what Richmond have become with that mature aged recruiting strategy. If they are not going to play in a premiership - go to the next person that will. I'm just a keyboard warrior at the end of the day though.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Good comment Chris, you're saying what Ive been saying for ages about Houli, Hunt and to a lesser extent Conca as he's been injured. Hunt should've been delisted at end of 2016 and Conca traded - for something...god knows who or what. B Ellis i do see some promising signs but agree he's under the pump to deliver/build on his earlier potential. But i disagree Houli should go up forward. His failure to deliver under pressure down back can be just as easily replicated up forward with similar results albeit a few seconds more for the opposition to hit the scoreboard. In racing parlance - prefer others.
Chris
Guest
Hi Cam, So we were watching the Richmond v Collingwood game and we couldn't help but notice some of the terrible side kicking, short kicking to a man under pressure and stopping the game flow with slow ball movement that Bachar Houli and Reece Conca were doing. We were blown away to see that they were both in our top 3 disposal getter's that day and said 'gee I hope none of the coaches think they are best on ground!' Then it hit us, if 2 terrible ball movers are in our top 3 possession getter's and are also the ones meant to be setting up our plays on the half back line, then maybe it isn't all the coaches fault? (although he keeps picking them). Another one is Taylor Hunt and I would put Brandon Ellis in there also. For all this talk about the next tier of players stepping up, we don't want players who are questionable being responsible for setting up plays and having high possession games especially, that's where we want our top end talent to maximize the chance of a scoring chain going effectively. I always thought that our team has never been as good as the first year we made finals when Tuck, Newman, King, Jackson and others were still playing. But looking back at it, with those players in we had Deledio and Newman on the half back line which helped to setup plays. I would rather see a stop/start player like Houli used in the forward line. Of course last years change to the deliberate out of bounds rule especially hurt defensive teams who played the boundary, so us and Fremantle were always going to fall in my opinion. Unfortunately we are now years behind other teams that have been training offensively (like Hardwick was when he first took over) this whole time. So in conclusion and to over simplify it - the more possessions a dud player gets (or a good player who is played out of position), the more likely a team is to lose as they have been involved in more attempts at scoring chains. I think collectively we may have one of the worst, if not worst half back line in the league. Sorry if that sounds negative, I am not saying they are bad players, they may just as easily being played out of position or under instruction to do that. A couple of the side kicks out of the back line made us think that no sane player would try to do that and it must be by game plan.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Go Blues. Get the pain over with early.
J.T. Delacroix
Guest
Thanks Bill. Some brilliant original humour there. You're a real wit. Of sorts.
Cameron Rose
Expert
All very good points Hal. The Tiges need to be pushing for the eight, or Hardwick will be under fierce pressure.
Cameron Rose
Expert
There will be one Brian, so come back to find out who it is!
peter chrisp
Guest
Richmond premiers that is so funny you would have to be in top 4 and win at least 16-17 games and your chances are if i can use a term a Pies term yes i am too Buckley's and none oh gee Buckley's name came up again
Brian
Guest
why not undefeated so far in the pre-season
Brian
Guest
Cam I don't think there has ever been a year where more then 6 of the top 8 made finals the following year. So I look forward to the 2nd top 8 team that joins North on your non top 8 list tomorrow.
tibor nagy (big four sticks)
Guest
I can't believe it, hal, you have something positive to say about Richmond. We will beat Geelong this year too.
tibor nagy (big four sticks)
Guest
But it is not going to happen JB. Big Jack will kick a bag and Dusty will carve them up.
hal
Guest
It isn't out of the realms of possibility that Richmond could sneak into the eight, as they did well in the trade period. Caddy is a great pick up and will help the midfield. Geelong really stuffed the whole trade period up and to Richmond's credit, they capitalized. Nankervis is also handy and Castagna should improve this year. Richmond's draw is also favorable. They should start the season off with a bang with an easy win over Carlton. They have the capability of upsetting top eight sides, especially Sydney. Their record against Freo is good, both home and away, so they could win both of those. I have them anywhere between eighth and tenth. I think they are far better than Collingwood, who I see doing stuff all.
tibor nagy (big four sticks)
Guest
We will be premiers.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
I was thinking the same thing Slane. And Vickery was originally a top 10 pick (a waste). Your forward line should function better without both of them there. It wouldn't surprise me if they both had better seasons.
me too
Roar Rookie
when tipping a tigers match for the last few years a simple rule was - no deledio, no tigers. 2017 - no deledio.
Slane
Guest
Unfortintely, dumb footballer with no intensity is exactly how I woud described Vickery also.
Slane
Guest
This is one that always makes me laugh. I've even seen 'Ninthmond' written like that's supposed to be a funny little pun. Meanwhile North Melbourne has finished 9th a whole bunch and North and Ninth are far more similar than Rich and Ninth!