Essendon enter 2017 finally free of the ASADA shackles that have impacted them heavily for the last four years. But while they may now have a full list to choose from, there’s still reason to be cautious about the Bombers flying up just yet.
Let’s have a look at the list changes made in the off-season.
Additions: Josh Green (Brisbane), James Stewart (GWS Giants), Andrew McGrath, Jordan Ridley, Josh Begley, Kobe Mutch, Dylan Clarke, Sam Draper (draft)
Subtractions: Michael Hibberd (Melbourne), Tayte Pears (retired), Courtenay Dempsey, Ryan Crowley, Nathan Grima, Mark Jamar, Sam Grimley, Sam Michael, James Polkinghorne, Jonathon Simpkin, James Gwilt, Jason Ashby, Shaun Edwards, Tom Wallis, Nick Kommer, Will Hams, Gach Nyuon (delisted)
What happened last year?
Essendon had one hand on the wooden spoon before the season even began after their list was wiped by mass suspensions. Fears of a winless season were famously dashed in Round 2 after an upset over Melbourne, and while they were competitive for most of their next 17 matches – they lost every single one.
They couldn’t avoid a last-place finish, but two wins in the last three weeks of the season ensured Bombers fans finished 2016 as perhaps the happiest supporters of a bottom team in AFL history.
What’s changed?
Obviously, Essendon got their suspended players back and this improves their list significantly. Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson, Cale Hooker, Michael Hurley, Brent Stanton, Heath Hocking, Tom Bellchambers, Ben Howlett, David Myers and Travis Colyer all make their triumphant return to the side, with just Melbourne-bound Michael Hibberd and the retired Tayte Pears not coming back.
It’s important to remember though that this full list only managed three more wins in 2015 than the top-up team did last year.
What needs to happen in 2017?
John Worsfold is very lucky in that he essentially gets a second first year with his new club. Worsfold has proven he can take bottom teams to the top in very quick fashion, but 2017 needs to be spent thoroughly assessing the list.
Essendon fans have been proud to point out that last season’s suspensions allowed them to expose a lot of youngsters to senior football ahead of schedule, and that the return of the suspended players can only strengthen their team.
But the reality is you can only field 22 players at a time and so the equation isn’t as simple as it’s been made out to be.
What value does Brent Stanton, soon to be 31, bring to the team if he’s competing with players like Darcy Parish or Zach Merrett for game time? How important is returning top-up player James Kelly given No.1 draft pick Andrew McGrath appears to play a very similar position?
How much does a year away from any form of competitive football impact on players in their late 20s like Cale Hooker, Heath Hocking and Ben Howlett?
What in the way of a victory lap can the club afford to Jobe Watson?
These are all questions that will take the better part of a season to answer. It may be tempting to plug all ten suspended players back in the best 22 and steal a few more wins, but this won’t set up the Dons for long term success.
John Worsfold will have a lot of tinkering to do with the Bombers this year.
The verdict
There is light at the end of what has been a very dark tunnel for Essendon. 2017 will undoubtedly be viewed as a rebirthing year the football club as they finally make traction in the John Worsfold era.
But the Bombers aren’t just recovering from the ASADA saga. They’re still recovering from ten years of (mostly) poor results on the field. They’re building something good, but they’re still at square one.
Prediction: 16th
Denam Moore
Roar Pro
http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/03/30/experts-daft-suggest-essendon-wont-climb-ladder/
The Finger
Guest
Fortunately from Essendon's perspective, the returning players had already been exposed to Woosha's pre-season coaching and game plan before they were suspended in 2016. Because Essendon had announced before the WADA decision that they had plans for every conceivable outcome, then it's a fair bet that there were certain instructions given to the temporary coaches assigned to the suspended players regarding their training. So, I don't think that blending the returning players this year with those who played for the Bombers in 2016 is as difficult as is made out. Also, there has been huge intellectual capital gained for the younger players last year from Kelly, Stokes and co. Kelly is still a great player and influencer at the top level, and guys like McGrath will benefit enormously from the wisdom of Kelly, plus Hurley, Goddard, Hooker, etc. Essendon's combination of small, fast runners (Fantasia, Green, Z Merrett) in conjunction with the taller Daniher, Hooker and Stewart, could create headaches for opposing teams. They look a bit suspect in the ruck, depending on whether Bellchambers can fully recover. However, I rate McKernan as someone with huge potential sufficient to cover the gap with Luenberger. Whatever happens, it'll sure be interesting.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
Some of what you say makes sense, but to point to the season 2015 result as a "normal" result is to diminish the impact of the ASADA investigation at the time, the draining impact on the players, and the drain of being 3 seasons under that cloud. Perhaps 2014 is a better guage of what that team was capable of, as the basis for working out what they are capable of in 2017. I understand the unknown impact of a season off, but in reality only 5 of the 10 are lock-ins for the team. The recruiting from 2014-2016 seems to have produced some excellent, quality, young and medium age players - Langford, Laverde, Zach Merrett, Parish, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Dea, Hartley, Brown, McGrath, Francis, Begley, Ridley, McKenna, Morgan, Redman, Mutch, Green, Long, and some of these players will be great footballers and others will create the competition with the other 5 returning players which will bring the Bombers into finals contention. The early results of the pre-season games shows that they are a very different team to 2016 and so your assessment of 16th position seems way too low. A more realistic assessment, given the number of unknowns is 6th to 12th. Prediction: 9th.
Craig
Guest
16th? I might be a one eyed Bombers fan but I'll be bitterly bitterly disappointed if they finish 16th.