Managing expectations in Melbourne

The growing optimism that Mercedes’ recent dominance can be curtailed will be put to the test in the coming forty-eight hours, therefore it’s appropriate to evaluate potential outcomes from each end of the spectrum.

Lewis Hamilton’s continued insistence that Ferrari, which impressed through pre-season testing, “will definitely be favourites” represents the ultimate subterfuge, and the three-time champion is clearly comfortable deflecting attention towards the Maranello outfit.

The Briton, who has enjoyed the best package on the grid for the past three campaigns, could be offering an honest appraisal of where he believes the order stands, though nobody is naive enough to buy into the notion that Brackley has been resting on its laurels.

Even if it comes to pass that Ferrari realises the perennial ‘hype train’ this weekend, the primitive nature of the new regulations renders it difficult to ascertain whether they possess the credentials to sustain a concerted title bid.

Continuous developmental evolution means the significance of the finishing order on Sunday could be academic by the following event at China. Such has been the furious cycle of upgrades in the past fortnight, that some outfits might produce a result entirely unindicative from the one suggested by form at Barcelona.

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Renault, which struggled in testing, albeit on a scale which pales in comparison to Honda’s plight, has unveiled a raft of innovations in time for the curtain raiser, pertaining most crucially to the MGU-K, which Jolyon Palmer believes is “a big fix for here (Melbourne).”

While Palmer and the factory outfit cannot be counted on to be in contention for victory this weekend, it will be music to the ears of its most prolific customer, Red Bull, which concluded its running at Barcelona posing more questions than answers regarding its representative standing.

Between the confidence that reliability has been addressed, coupled with the RB13 comprising a fundamentally overhauled package at Melbourne from the one on hand at Barcelona, it will serve as little surprise should the Milton Keynes outfit usurp both Mercedes and Ferrari.

As far as form guides for the season ahead, the Albert Park circuit is an anomaly, and notwithstanding subtle alterations to the layout in catering to cars boasting renewed aggression and outright pace, it’s conceivable that there could be some outlandish results and a few incidents while drivers continue to adapt to their new office.

For all of the ‘sandbagging’ and the major players calling their counterpart’s bluff, it would be ultimately galling if Mercedes drops all pretence come Saturday afternoon and displays that the aerodynamic upheaval has done little to temper its reign, if not consolidated the gap which has diminished incrementally in each of its victorious campaigns.

The incentive is there for the German marque, and Hamilton’s assertion that “we are here to win and to do something that no-one else has done”, in pioneering successive sets of regulations, is an ominous indication that the Mercedes dynasty is only getting started and we should be prepared for this eventuality.

The time honoured issue which accompanies each new season, and to that end, the dawn of a fresh era, is that even the most seasoned observer contains the flicker of hope and sentiment, that the script will be turned on its head and their desired driver or team will enter the ascendancy, only to be sorely disappointed. It’s infectious.