On October 24 Winx shouldn’t be running in the Caulfield Stakes – she should be running in The Everest: a $10 million 1200m race to be run at Randwick. A highly historic occasion.
Why? Well first I would like to – for a moment – compare Winx to my favourite horse: Sunline. The two are very comparable, but Winx is a better horse than Sunline. It pains me to say so, but it’s true.
There is a reason though that Sunline will always have that special place in my heart and for this I must thank her trainer.
Trevor McKee and Sunline didn’t give a toss about winning sequences. They didn’t seek to make an easy dollar. They were fearless. They took on the best at any track at any time of year. They gave lesser horses masses of weight and still beat them.
Sunline won a Doncaster under 58kg and ran second under 57.5kg. She won 2 G1 Coolmores under 60kg, giving most of the field 8kg. She began one preparation in August winning a 1200m Manikato by 3.5 lengths and finished it by winning the HK Champions Mile in December (she picked up a Cox Plate by 7 lengths along the way).
She went to Hong Kong twice, Dubai once and crossed the Tasman Sea around 20 times by my reckoning. She raced other champions.
If Sunline was around today Trevor McKee would be running in The Everest – and would probably back up in Melbourne and Hong Kong later in the Spring. That’s what racing is about.
Trevor McKee believed in his horse and understood what makes racing magic, and it’s not 20 wins in a row with all the odds in your favour.
In Winx, Chris Waller has a horse better than Sunline. After she wins the Queen Elizabeth, Winx will probably follow the same set of races that she won last year en route to a record-equalling third Cox Plate.
Barring injury, she will win all those races. There is simply nothing in Australia to test her. There are no Sunlines, Northerlys, Might and Powers. There is Hartnell, Jameka, Le Romain. It’s mildly embarrassing.
If you owned Winx this option would be obvious and it would be tempting. She will pick up another $3 million or so in the spring, equal Kingston Town and then onto the Autumn where we can run in the same four races yet again and unless she loses 10 lengths or bows a tendon she will probably extend her winning streak to Black Caviar levels.
It is not the fault of Winx that there are no great horses to test her, but the most admired champions are those that face the prospect of defeat to prove their greatness in one way or another.
And then came The Everest. A $10 million race. This is the moment, to quote Greg Miles, where a champion could become a legend. But hang on just one second, I can hear people saying. The race is over 1200m – Winx is not a sprinter.
Isn’t she? She looks to have an amazing sprint to my eye. She makes very good horses look like camels over 1400m-1500m. Is it that hard to believe that she wouldn’t have enough early speed to settle in the back third of the field, peel to the outside and make mincemeat of our current crop of sprinters? Especially if trained for the event?
The current crop of sprinters is particularly weak. There are no Black Caviars, Hay Lists, Takeover Targets, Miss Andrettis. The big three Melbourne group 1s were just won by Terravista, Sheidel and Redkirk Warrior. Is anyone backing them to beat Winx over 1200m? I think she would probably beat them over 1000m.
Ultimately I think Winx should (and would if I owned her) run in the Everest for four reasons:
1. The Money – $10 million race, more than she would earn in 2 springs if she didn’t run.
2. The Moment – Magic moments in racing have a couple of things in common: a champion and the possibility that the champion can lose. How about the dominant champion of her era passing up an opportunity to equal Kingston Town’s record to race over an unsuitable distance and claim the first ever Everest. Now that would be the stuff of legend.
3. Longevity – A light spring can only help extend the length of her career and would provide an ideal opportunity to have an extended Sydney Autumn – Royal Ascot preparation ext year.
4. The win – She would win. She could lose, but she would win.
Come on Chris Waller, let Winx climb Everest!
George
Guest
Racecourses are hugely valuable chunks of real estate and also cost a fortune to maintain. The ATC are planning to get them to pay for themselves with a luxury hotel and restaurants at Randwick and I believe a family friendly entertainment centre at Rosehill. Both courses will have the new light rail going straight past them so it should work out well. Wont effect the major function as race courses at all. As for the Everest I don't think the ATC are five years old or suffering from arrested development! They are not concerned with the Melbourne Carnival. Theyre doing their job and promoting NSW Racing and looking after the participants in NSW ( owners, trainers etc) . The major beneficiaries of the 10 million dollar race are the owners of horses who get a slot. I dont think the battlers who paid 20,000 for She Will Reign are complaining. Not elitist at all
Big Daddy
Guest
I always thought horse racing was supposed to be for people. This attempt by the ATC is nothing but a gimmick to take attention away from the Melbourne spring. This race is for the rich and those who can afford it. Same as their hotel . Why would you build a hotel on a racecourse.
Ian Brown
Roar Pro
Technically Sean all races are restricted either by age, sex, number of wins or performance, this is more restricted than most by the buy in fee of $600K, effectively it is an old fashioned sweepstake. Why I contend that colts won't be interested is that it doesn't have Group Status and either winning or more importantly getting beaten in a non group race devalues their overseas value immensely. That is why we don't get the outstanding European sire prospects racing in AUS, even though the prizemoney levels are enormous compared with Europe it pales into nothing compared with the stud fees.
Sean Blaylock
Roar Rookie
I agree!
Raimond
Roar Guru
on turfon dirt (edit functions are wasted on simpletons like myself)Raimond
Roar Guru
Winx vs. Arrogate would be a dream match-up, but there are other options. It seems like a waste for her to be running around in races like the Chipping Norton and the George Ryder when she could be taking on the world's best.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Winx beating Arrogate on turf would be even sweeter then.
Sean Blaylock
Roar Rookie
Not at all hairy fat man. If there was an Australian horse in recent years adaptable and good enough to travel and win it's Winx. She can sustain a sprint better than any we have seen in more years than I have been here. If it were up to me I would be plotting an overseas campaign with her for 2018 if she holds her form. However, there is a $10 million race in Australia in October with a very weak bunch of sprinters running around at present. I have strong doubts, but The Everest may, in time, become an honoured event on the Australian calendar. Wouldn't winning the first one be significant, especially for a horse that has excelled over further? Not to ignore the financial incentive. Only 2 races in the world are worth more money and they are run on dirt. It would be fair to say that Australian racing fans don't hold dirt racing in the esteem it's held in other countries. Winx would have to head to Darwin or Alice Springs for some practice!
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Arrogate won't leave the dirt
Raimond
Roar Guru
The mentality of Australian racing fans seems very provincial to me. Why is there no interest in a Winx-Arrogate showdown?
Diggerbill
Roar Rookie
Would be good to see Winx in the race. I think she would be a special. If they went hard it would set it up for her and if they went slow she would only be a few lengths off them. Class always goes a long way and as you've pointed out there's not a lot of it around at the moment.
Sean Blaylock
Roar Rookie
I agree David. Barring the unlikely scenario that Winx will actually head that way then the race is ripe for the best 3yo sprinter whoever that may be. The older brigade are a bit of a slow bunch at the moment - Rebel Dane winning a Manikato is a perfect case in point.
David W
Guest
If She Will Reign comes back in the Spring with anything like the speed she's shown in her short career so far she will be very hard to beat on a good track. Her sectionals on drier tracks earlier this year were nothing short of phenomenal for a 2 year old.
Bill
Guest
Agreed. Three cox plates is immortal.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
So? She has conquered the mile and 10f races. Why not set her for the Everest, back off and then set her for HK?
Scuba
Guest
Having to pay $1.8 million for a slot makes it a restricted race in practical terms if not in actual terms.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
not stallion prospects? watch Godolphin line up for spots. Watch other studs offer up spots to owners in exchange for shares. James Harron buys horses for the purpose of them being stud horses, and he was the first to buy a spot
Aransan
Guest
I agree that owners of a horse should be prepared to risk defeat, Black Caviar was a champion sprinter, why would you want to run her in anything other than sprints? I agree that not too much should be read into her 25 wins without defeat -- actually I would have retired her after her Diamond Jubilee win and left her in Europe to breed with the world's best horses. Black Caviar's races against Hay List were a delight to watch and she was racing against the very best next sprinter anywhere. Only bad luck could have caused her to lose either of her two TJ Smiths, but it doesn't take much in racing for things to go against you. I don't think Winx is being protected in her races. No doubt there would have been many horse people who would have loved to see Frankel run in the Derby, but why would you when you know of his incredible brilliance over a mile?
Aransan
Guest
I don't think the money is all that important and there is no tradition associated with that race. To win over 1200m Winx would have to have an unusual preparation and I think would have to run fresh -- her ability to run well in any subsequent race would be compromised.
Sean Blaylock
Roar Rookie
That is not necessarily true, but even if it were The Everest is worth $10 million. That's 3.33 times the Cox Plate or 20 times the George Main Stakes. So why does she have to run in lots of other races? She can do that next year on the back of a light Spring campaign.