As if the Sydney Swans’ winless start to the 2017 season hasn’t been tough enough already, things could get even worse for the perennial finalists in the weeks to come.
Friday night’s heartbreaking one-point loss to Collingwood left the Swans with an 0-3 record to start the season for the first time since 1999, and with tough assignments against the West Coast Eagles and GWS Giants to come in the next fortnight, they could realistically be 0-5 after as many rounds.
It would be a long way back for the club if they are to feature in September this year, as no club has ever reached the finals after starting a season with four or more consecutive losses.
What has not helped the Swans’ cause so early this season has been a crippling injury toll which has forced coach John Longmire to blood five debutants within the first three rounds.
Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley, Gary Rohan and former co-captain Jarrad McVeigh, among others, have yet to feature this year, while Dane Rampe and Kurt Tippett also suffered significant injuries within the first two rounds.
In their places, Oliver Florent, Robbie Fox, Will Hayward, Nic Newman and Jordan Dawson have made their debut for the club, and despite the adversities faced against them, have impressed in some capacity.
Hayward showed signs of maturity against the Pies on Friday night, kicking three goals, while Florent kicked one which put the Swans within striking distance midway through the final quarter.
However, the inexperience proved to be the difference as the Swans went down by a point, with a poor opening quarter in which they struggled to get the ball inside their forward 50 proving to be their downfall.
While they did eventually work their way back into the match, taking the lead at one point in the final quarter, the slow start ultimately proved very costly.
The oldest Swan on the field was Lance Franklin, whose 250th game went down as one he would rather forget as he was held goalless for just the seventh time since moving to the club at the end of the 2013 season.
He and the club will be hoping for a better outcome when they make the difficult trip west on Thursday night to face a West Coast Eagles side smarting from their 11-point loss to Richmond last Saturday.
The Swans will start heavy underdogs against the Eagles, despite having won nine of their last ten matches against their western rivals.
The only blot came in 2015, when the Eagles romped to a 52-point win; this was despite their full-forward Josh Kennedy being held to just three goals by Dane Rampe, who will be missing until at least after the club’s Round 11 bye.
His absence due to a careless training injury suffered after the club’s Round 1 loss to Port Adelaide has created the potential for Kennedy to kick a large haul of goals.
The two-time reigning Coleman Medallist has only kicked 18 goals in eight matches (for one win) against the Swans; this is the least amount of goals he has kicked against any club, discounting his brief two years at Carlton in which he didn’t kick a goal in two matches against his current club.
After that, the Swans return home to host the first of the two annual Sydney Derbies against the GWS Giants, who have hit back hard in the fortnight following their Round 1 thumping at the hands of the Crows at the Oval.
It’s a fair bet to say that the Giants will start favourites for the Round 5 Derby, as well as their home Derby at Spotless Stadium in Round 17 if they aren’t favoured for that one already.
This could also be the year in which the Giants overtake the Swans as the number one club in the Harbour City, after the premiership favourites’ uncompromising style of play took the AFL world by storm last year.
This has continued into 2017, with the Giants racking up their highest score and winning margin against the Gold Coast Suns in Round 2, while inaccuracy prevented them from defeating North Melbourne by more than the 42 points it managed and racking up another high score.
The win over the Roos came exactly five years to the day since an inexperienced and underdeveloped side copped a 129-point hammering in what was just their second AFL match – one of a dozen 100-plus-point defeats the club has suffered in their five-and-a-bit year history.
However, Leon Cameron’s men have come a very long way since then and with the inevitable decline of the Sydney Swans as the best side in New South Wales, fans will want to jump on the Giants’ bandwagon in 2017.
Back on topic now, and with only a six-day break to contend with, coach John Longmire will not want to risk rushing back the likes of Gary Rohan, Isaac Heeney, Jarrad McVeigh and Kurt Tippett for the match against the West Coast Eagles in Perth.
Most, if not all of them, should return against the Giants in Round 5, by which point the Swans will very likely be 0-4 and therefore be facing an uphill battle just to feature in September this year.
As we have seen in the opening three rounds, it will be up to the club’s inexperienced line-up to try to quell the Eagles’ relentless attack on the large expanses of Domain Stadium.
The Swans’ struggles so far in 2017 is a stark contrast to this time twelve months ago when the club, having lost so many experienced players at the end of the 2015 season, surprised many by once again finishing as minor premiers and reaching their third grand final in five years.
But it is about to become clear that the many years spent in the upper half of the ladder could finally be catching up to the club; with that in mind, 2017 could be a year for them to reset and reload similar to what the Geelong Cats did in 2015, and the Swans themselves in 2009.
The club has been so consistent over the past two decades that it has missed the finals just three times since 1995, while also winning over 50 per cent of finals matches it has contested in this period.
It will now remain to be seen how the Swans, who are one of the few clubs who have refused to bottom out when other clubs have in recent years, rebound from what is their worst start to a season in eighteen years.
A potentially disastrous 0-5 start to the season could just about spell the end of them for 2017, but it’s extremely doubtful that the club will suffer the dramatic fall from grace Fremantle did when it crashed from minor premiers in 2015 to winning just four games and finishing 16th last season.
For the sake of the club and their fans, let’s hope they can remain competitive and in contention for September for as long as they can.
Michael Huston
Guest
Yet Freo were poor from the first round when you were virtually full strength.
Michael Huston
Guest
Like a trade-ban? Or maybe the most lopsided free kick count in grand final history?
Mark
Guest
I believe that the team poor start is due to to a combination of players reaching their peak, the rule changes for no 3rd man up and holding the footy rule interpretation that makes it harder for the Swans to control the game by stoppages, other teams figuring out how to beat the swans by dominating the midfield with speed and poor coaching to adjust team strategy. It is like the perfect storm to showcase all of the Swans weaknesses so early in the season. Sure there might be too many inexperienced players blooded due to injury, but it seems the Hayward and Florent look like they be future stars, and the others like Foote and Newman do not look out of place. But man the huge drop in production with Parker, Hannebery and Jack is shocking. Kennedy really looks slow and a liability under the new rules. Sometimes I think they try to play too much like bluechip players and should be playing alot more of the tough, tagging defensive midfield style of old. Lloyd and Jones looks like they are gonna have a breakthrough year this year but there are glaring weaknesses in their game (Lloyd defending faster and taller opponents, Jones with his recklessness) and apart from them I do not see similar experienced players like Cunningham, Laidler and Towers being more than the 19-22 of the team. Swans really need the injured list people back, especially Heeney and Papley to come back to reinforce Franklin and Reid in attack and when Rampe comes back, the defence looks much more versatile with Rampe, Grundy and Allir defending the key forwards. Until then, it is going to be a huge struggle.
Don Freo
Guest
Sooo...a bit short on depth?
stewie
Guest
Swans had a less experienced team than Fremantle, even with the axing of 6 players. Swans had more players under 50 games and 3 more players under ten games than Brisbane Lions, and that's including the debuts of McCluggage and Berry. So it's a super young team, plus a heavy injury list including four of our five best forwards from 2016 (Heeney, Rohan, Papley, Tippett) and an all-Australian defender in Rampe. When you read that, is it any real surprise that Swans lost? If anything I think it was impressive that they were the better team except for a woeful first quarter. Newman and Hayward will be pushing for best 22 spots even when the injured players return, and players like Florent, Fox, and even Dawson show plenty of promise.
Bugaluggs
Guest
The ARU is doing their bit to help out it seems.
Tricky
Guest
This article is very premature! And to say inexperience lost them the game - beg to differ! If anything Newman, Hayward, Florent and Fox were enormous and you could argue they almost got Sydney over the line. Also I don't think you're giving the opposition any credit, Collingwood have BIG outs in Elliot, Degoey and Wells. That 1st quarter the Pies were going at 90+ % efficiency - you have to acknowledge that. It sounds like you're sour because you lost to a supposed bad team - more like this is a snapshot of how even the comp really is
Craigo
Guest
Gold!
Wayne
Guest
Sydney are shot - Tippett is made of tissue paper and not worth 5 cents - Rohan is a flat track bully - Grundy is in his last year - they are rubbish and Longmire can't coach - they are better than Freo though - and maybe Gold Coast - its even with them and the Lions....
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
And there I thought you might have a point (for all those years) banging on about Freo's depth; how injuries are irrelevant to them because they're so awesome. Would you like me to copy-and-paste some of your comments from years ago? I know you love it when I do this. :)
MG
Roar Rookie
2005 - after six rounds 2 - 4, finished third in home and away with 15 wins. I wouldn't write them off yet but if we get to the finals will there be fair umpiring? If Melbourne or the Saints make 7th (or higher) I wouldn't like to be a non-Victorian side playing them in the finals.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
I wouldn't be too concerned just yet Swans supporters. The Swans were very competitive in both games against the Bulldogs and Collingwood in two very high quality intensely competitive matches. With a bit of luck they could have won both. When they get most of their players back I expect them to get on a long roll. I reckon West Coast are a bit brittle - you just need to get over the home town umpiring - and I expect Sydney to be primed to put in a big one against GWS.
Don Freo
Guest
Sydney will only have a fall from grace similar to Freo's if they have a similar injury count. Sydney has half a dozen out for 4 weeks. Freo had over a dozen out every week...all season.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
lol.
Andrew Young
Roar Guru
The Swans are a champion team and will no doubt bounce back. I'd be very surprised to see them roll over and fail to make the 8.
McNaulty
Guest
I wonder if there is something the AFL can do to help the Swans out? It does't seem right that they should have to go through this.
Roger of Sydney
Guest
Although certainly not an ideal start, the very undermanned Swans have not had their pants lowered once. It sounds like continual whinging but the umpiring in the Bulldogs game was a disgrace and the Swans were leading with ten to go. Again against Port and against Collingwood. When they are back to full strength they can and will beat anyone. I do agree with Michael though, we have some disinterest. Jack has always relied on others to get the ball, I have never seen Luke Parker worse. Allir Allir is outstanding, Reed is great, buddy is on fire then its a long list from there. We really need Heeney to get the hard balls. As long as we make the eight we can still have a shot.
R2k
Guest
Last year the bulldogs won from 7th. Anything can happen.
Michael Huston
Guest
I knew going into 2017 that it was just not going to be our year. I had a feeling two grand final losses would just put a mental toll on some of our blokes, and it's pretty evident that has eventuated. Guys like Grundy and Nick Smith and Parker are playing with a level of disinterest that is slightly concerning, if not fully concerning (because they are guns who are capable of playing winning footy when they turn it on.) The injuries are terrible. I can't think of any other club in the AFL with the amount of important players missing that we have right now. However, it cannot be an excuse. If anything, it proves our depth just isn't up to scratch, because we haven't been able to find anyone to perform at the level of the guys who are missing. Western Bulldogs were a perfect example last year. They may not have had the sheer volume of guns missing all at once that we have, but they were still able to have players 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 etc on their list come in and make any absences hardly felt. I think the fact we're getting games into Hayward, Florent, Fox, Newman, Foote, Dawson, Marsh etc. only gives us a chance to work on and improve our depth, since the tried and tested blokes like Cunningham, Towers and Laidler just aren't able to make an impact. The kids won't be slotting in and making much of an impact at the minute, but if they can quietly go about getting some senior experience, they may be capable of doing so in the future. I think having so many injuries at once so early in the season is the killer. It's not as bad in the middle of the season or later, when the depth players have had a chance to get some NEAFL experience, and the senior guys are already in form. But the fact it's happened before the season's even really began put so much pressure on guys like Hannebery, Parker, Jack, Franklin, Grundy, Smith, Lloyd etc. to perform right from the first bounce of the season. It's an unfair and unrealistic expectation to believe they will instantly start this year in top form. They've all shown signs of the usual rusty early-season jitters, but unfortunately the inexperience around them has compounded everything. Just horrible, horrible luck, really. I suspect even if we are 0-5 we can make the finals. There's just way too much talent in our side to not be playing finals football (unlike Fremantle). However, I'm putting a line through our flag chances. Not because of injuries or personnel or even the likely 0-5 record. I believe we can't win the flag because we just lack that offensive game-plan to cope with other teams. We've gotten an unfair reputation as lacking an attacking side; in years past, we've actually been perfectly balanced between offensive and defensive styles of footy, capable of kicking big scores with dangerous forward weapons but still focusing on defensive, pressure, contested footy. But I think this year, the competition has just slightly moved ahead of us. Even Richmond and Port Adelaide and Fremantle seem more capable of taking the game on with some flare and causing some headaches with their forward movement. We just lack that at the minute. It will come. Horse is a great coach, and we have so many quality players in our team. But it won't be enough for this year.