Three rounds in to the AFL season, and we have no idea what the pecking order is.
The old guard are falling – Hawthorn into the abyss, Sydney into a situation becoming more delicate by the week, and North are about where they should be after making their first decisive cuts into a rebuild.
The Hawks are gone. We know that now, if there was any doubt. A huge concern for them is three of the experienced players they brought to the club, Tom Mitchell, Jaegar O’Meara and Ricky Henderson, have probably been their best across the first few weeks.
Their champions aren’t what they were, the young players can’t cut it yet, and those in between are proving to have been in the right place at the right time for Clarkson’s premiership winning system, but are ineffectual in a struggling side.
Sydney have exposed several young players to major game time in the first few rounds, thanks to an injury list that contains some of their more celebrated names. Will Hayward, Nic Newman, Robbie Fox, Jordan Foote and Oliver Florent have all shown something to suggest that they can be relied upon as the year progresses, and John Longmire has always shown faith in his younger players.
The problem with so many inexperienced players is a lack of consistency across four quarters, and the Swans have effectively been beaten by one poor term in each of their matches so far.
North Melbourne have been in all of their games for the most part, a goal down to West Coast at half-time before losing by 43 points, four goals up against Geelong at three quarter-time before failing deep in time on, and in front against GWS late in the second term before losing by 42 points.
Young teams struggle to run out four quarters, but the Roos are showing they’re up for the contest early, which is a great tick for Brad Scott, his coaching staff and the playing group in general. That they’re getting run over in second halves is natural.
Adelaide are the current testing material of the competition, impressive across each line, and based on what we saw last year, their form can be trusted.
GWS are showing ominous signs without really clicking into gear yet, but the fact is they got trounced by the only contender they’ve played this season, and they get to answer some more questions against Port this week.
Richmond have taken three scalps so far, each more impressive than the last in terms of the expected ladder positions of Carlton, Collingwood and West Coast this year, but the Tigers have benefited from a friendly draw that has allowed them to build confidence and momentum.
Geelong are a fascinating case at this stage of the season. Some teams are blessed with benefiting from playing the right teams at the right time, and the Cats are living that right now.
They got Fremantle at their oldest and slowest in Round 1, and on Saturday got Melbourne when they were missing Jesse Hogan and Jordan Lewis to suspension, and had the fortune of Max Gawn going down against them early.
The talk has been that Geelong hasn’t been playing their best footy, but what if they have been, and this is who they are? They might just be an incredibly average side that has two absolute superstars at the top of their game, plus a gun key forward that is on track to have his best season.
Reliance on Dangerfield and Selwood? It’s a pretty stupid observation or criticism when you think about it. Well, yeah, if you’ve got them, so they should be relied upon.
Just like Carlton relied on Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs to help beat Essendon. Just like Richmond relied on Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin to beat West Coast. Just like Rory Sloane and Taylor Walker got Adelaide over the line against Port, and Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna did the same for St Kilda over Brisbane.
Of course, the balance is ensuring your bottom six or eight players can perform roles enough to support the guns.
Where are Melbourne right now? Where are St Kilda? Where are Collingwood? The latter two teams play each other this weekend, with the winner squaring their season ledger and the loser slipping to 1-3. The Demons take on a freshly-invigorated Dockers line-up this week in another huge game.
Brisbane and Carlton are showing they are more competitive than most thought, and Essendon started brightly in the first two weeks, but were out-toughed on the weekend. Both finals and bottom four are still in play for the Bombers.
Last year, the AFL was defined by the evenness of the top seven or eight teams, and how each of them could beat the other on any given day. This year, we may have gone a bit further, and while it’s folly to suggest that a Carlton or Brisbane could beat Adelaide or GWS, we are set for a season where unpredictable results are the norm.
The pecking order is yet to be set, but the joy is in watching its evolving nature.
Maggie
Guest
Oh for heaven's sake - I was originally responding to a comment(s) - there was an earlier one as well - suggesting the Swans' academy was giving continual leg-ups, as if every year the Swans got first round picks from academy players. There is context, and then there is aggression in which you specialise. The academy model is not the topic of this article but it was raised by several in comments. However it is going to get very topical when the NGAs start to bring players to the draft from 2018. I will watch with interest to see if those of you who have been so vocal in attacking the Swans academy are consistent when your clubs pick your own NGA players. As I said to an earlier poster, I too would support an uncompromised draft (including free of father/son picks of whom Geelong has in the past been one of the most fortunate recipients and is potentially poised to be so again in the future) if I thought the same investment into the development of Australian Rules talent in the northern states would occur without the academies. But I don't believe that would be the case. The Swans' academy is being highly influential in broadening and deepening Australian Rules football in Sydney and surrounds where AFL was for so long regarded as a weird anomaly. Football followers from the traditional AFL states who are soaked in AFL exposure every day have little idea of the different football environment that exists in NSW and Qld.
Cat
Roar Guru
'Only' Heaney and Mills? Must be nice to subvert the draft and get top 5 talent while being at or near the top of the ladder. Wonder how much longer Geelong or Hawthorn could have stayed top if they got 'just two' top 5 talents while they were at the pointy end of the ladder. Imagine if Geelong and Hawthorn had a million bucks extra in cap space, probably would have held onto Ablett and Buddy then.
Maggie
Guest
Out of the hundreds of young boys who have been developed through the Swans Academy in the 7 years it has existed, Heeney and Mills are the only first-round equivalent picks that have been drafted by the Swans. Heeney (certainly) and Mills (probably) would not be playing AFL if the academy didn't exist. So they hardly 'land(ed) in the Swans' lap'. Without doubt the NGAs will give clubs priority rights to top talent players (many of whom already had talent pathways without need of an academy). Carlton and North Melbourne already have one very highly regarded player in each of their respective NGAs. And why wouldn't that be expected? Think of the current AFL players who would have been eligible as NGA players had these academies been in place earlier - for example Sam Petrevski-Seton who Carlton took at pick No.6 in the 2016 draft who would have come under the Fremantle NGA had it existed earlier. And as the draft rules currently stand, the non-northern clubs will be able to draft players from their NGAs under more-advantageous rules than those of the northern academies. So you might need to think about academy concessions some more in the near future from that corner you are standing in.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
that's true
Birdman
Guest
thanks mate - much appreciated..
Birdman
Guest
good luck to Jed - is seriously due some.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Ha ha ha......no. Scarily Jed is in good form with Werribee and back in the mix as we like to say.
Birdman
Guest
Respectfully Maggie, it's convenient to focus on last year's draft where the academy may not have been a factor but Heeney and Mills did land in the Swans' lap previously thanks to that pathway. As for Tony Olango, until he proves to be a gun, it's a very long shot that NGAs will deliver the same sort of talent Sydney's has already benefitted from. Until (if?) that changes, I'm happy to stand my corner on academy concessions.
Birdman
Guest
only if you throw Preuss in as steak knives, yeah?.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Maybe Hawthorn would like Jed Anderson back?
Mark
Guest
:)
Slane
Guest
The doggies were pretty special to win a flag from 7th. Funnily enough I reckon your boys are a pretty special side too.
Macca
Guest
Hawker - have to agree with you on Burton, I said at the time I would have loved the blues to grab him but with his injury issues it was always going to be a team like the hawks who would take the risk.
Maggie
Guest
Thank you, at least you are consistent in your views unlike most opponents of the northern academies.I would agree with you if I thought the northern states, where AFL is not the traditional football code, would still get the same developmental resources invested in junior talent as the club academies provide. But I don't believe they would. And now, with the establishment of the NGAs, every club has an interest in the academy model and the associated draft bidding system. For example, West Coast is already lobbying for broader preferential rights to indigenous talent from their academy zone. While the priority bidding points system may continue to get tightened (as it already has been twice for the northern academies) I don't think the model will be abandoned in the near future.
Brian
Guest
Yes but 2012, 2013 and 2014 we were the better side and lost them
hawker
Guest
Yeah Gunston needs to be played forward. As for none of their younger players stepping up see the round 2 rising star Ryan Burton may be one of the best prospects of that draft
hawker
Guest
Simon's right the academy concessions are a joke. By all means have all the academies you want and encourage juniors to play the game but they must go into an open draft where every club has the chance to acquire them. And yes I would scrape the F/S rule too. You cannot have salary capped league with a draft then be handing out concessions to certain teams its a farce
Slane
Guest
I'm not a Hawks supporter and my comment was also pretty tongue-in-cheek. I'm probably still right. Clarko is a mad footy genius. Luckily Hawthorn met your mob in the finals last season or you might not have even seen how far they have fallen.
joe b
Guest
I am banking on the other richmond to show up at the gabba. My tipping went to the dogs over the weekend, and also literally against my beloved Freo - but that was pretty sweet!
Aransan
Guest
There are costs if a ground is under utilised as well.