Revisiting my NBA overs/unders predictions

Now that the 2016-17 NBA regular season is over, and we eagerly await the Playoffs, it’s time to revisit my predictions for each team’s individual record.

I was feeling cocky when I first made these predictions, but usually there is nothing quite like publicly putting your neck on the line to bring you back to earth with a thud.

So, without further ado, let’s see how I went.

Atlanta Hawks – 44.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 43

Oh so close! But alas, no cigar. A strange season from the Hawks, who lacked an identity of sorts, and mixed some seriously impressive wins with some head-scratching losses.

In related news, they also gave me my first loss. Boo!

Boston Celtics – 51.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 53

The Celtics won 48 games last season, then added Al Horford, plus their youngsters were going to be a year older, wiser and better. I thought 51.5 was generous, and was extremely happy to take the overs. Ker-ching!

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Brooklyn Nets – 20.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 20

I couldn’t believe the bookies gave this truly horrific team a chance of 20-plus wins, but after an impressive start to the season, the joke appeared to be on me. Then the Nets settled into their destiny as the league’s worst team, and got me another victory. Just.

Charlotte Hornets – 41.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 36

My pre-season quote: “Charlotte should go way over 42 wins”. Let’s just put this down as a loss, and jog along, shall we?

To be honest, I still don’t know what the hell went wrong with the Hornets.

Chicago Bulls – 38.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 41

This roster made no sense pre-season. It made no sense mid-season. It makes no sense post the regular season. In fact, their entire season made no sense on a whole. They would beat heavyweights like Cleveland and Golden State, then lose to easybeats like Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Weird team, weird season.

Cleveland Cavaliers – 56.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 51

At the time, I wrote: “The danger here is that the defending champs coast in the regular season, in preparation for the only time of year that counts: the playoffs.”

That’s exactly what happened, as the Cavs gave up on D, and did enough just to stay near the top on the Eastern conference. Thanks guys.

Dallas Mavericks – 40.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 33

I had too much faith in coach Rick Carlisle, who I thought would coax over 40 wins out of a pretty patchy roster. Yep, I was dead wrong.

It’s a sad season when the biggest highlight was Tony Romo warming up with the team in their home season finale.

Denver Nuggets – 35.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 40

The Nuggets found a star in Nikola Jokic, and were extremely unlucky to miss the playoffs. However, they still did more than enough to get me a win here, as they surprised a number of teams, and positioned themselves as a team of the future.

Detroit Pistons – 45.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 37

I don’t like the roster, and thought the Pistons were overrated. It pretty much proved to be true. Tick.

Golden State Warriors – 67.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 67

Snuck this one in by the size of Muggsy Bogues. For much of the season, the Dubs actually threatened to match last season’s historic mark, which is just plain ridiculous.

Houston Rockets – 42.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 55

Smugness alert! I really, really liked the overs on Houston as I thought the pairing of James Harden and Mike D’Antoni was a match made in heaven. Two offensive gurus? Over 42 wins? Yes please.

Indiana Pacers – 45.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 42
I was clearly a little high on the Pacers, who actually struggled their way just to get to 42 wins. An interesting off-season awaits for Indy, as they need to decide what to do with star Paul George.

Los Angeles Clippers – 54.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 51

I said this was a tricky one, and through a combination of injuries, occasional lacklustre play, and a prevailing narrative that this team may have missed its window, 55 wins proved too big of a mountain to climb.

Los Angeles Lakers – 25.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 26

What the hell was this team doing going on a five-game winning streak to finish the season? Forget my prediction, my real anger comes from the fact that said wins seriously jeopardise the Lakers’ lottery pick, which goes to Philly if the LA side fall outside the top three.

That winning streak very well may prove to be the biggest blunder in franchise history.

Memphis Grizzlies – 44.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 43

I said this was a stupid bet at the time, but that didn’t mean I didn’t believe in it. While the Grizzlies fell just short of getting me a collect here, I’ll take the moral victory, as some people thought I had rocks in my head.

Miami Heat – 35.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 41

I was feeling very self-satisfied about this prediction when Miami had an 11-30 record. Then the Heat decided to become the hottest team in the NBA for over two months, decimating my hopes of collecting on this particular punt.

Milwaukee Bucks – 37.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 42

The smugness returns, due to this wager, as the Bucks went way over. Adding to my behaviour is this pre-season comment: “Giannis Antetokounmpo will make a ‘leap’ this year”. Yep, smug mode enabled.

Minnesota Timberwolves – 40.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 31

I said at the time that I felt quite bullish about this pick. It was bull all right. Bull excrement. What a disappointment the young Twolves were.

New Orleans Pelicans – 36.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 34

Even the addition of the enigmatic Boogie Cousins couldn’t lift this sorry squad above 36 wins. The losses piled up for the Pellies, which in turn gave me another win.

New York Knicks – 38.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 31

I’m just going to copy and paste my original commentary on the Knicks: “Unders. Unders. Unders. Seriously, what am I missing here? 39 wins? Are you kidding me? Melo and Porzingis will keep these guys competitive and interesting, but Phil Jackson has put too much faith in Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, whose best days are so far back in the rear view mirror, they can’t even be seen.”

OKC Thunder – 44.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 47

I didn’t feel good about this one, as I wasn’t sure if a motivated, angry and fired up Russell Westbrook was going to be a good thing or a bad thing for the Thunders’ win total. Thankfully for me – and the entrainment factor for the season – it ended up being the former, not the latter.

Orlando Magic – 36.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 29

One of the predictions I felt most confident about, considering the mess of a roster. That confidence was apparently well founded.

Philadelphia 76ers – Betting Was Suspended
Ben Simmons’ injury at the time of betting ensured that the odds on the 76ers were suspended. However, I said I had Philly at “about 25 wins”, and they finished on 28. Can I take that?

Phoenix Suns – 27.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 24

Phoenix quietly put together one of the biggest tank jobs in NBA history, and earned themselves a prime position in the lottery, and another notch of my betting belt.

Portland Trailblazers – 45.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 41

The Blazers’ success the previous season unfairly heightened expectations for this season, and I felt 46 wins was always going to be too many. A strong finish earned them a playoff position, but not enough to give me a loss.

Sacramento Kings – 33.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 32

This shambles of a franchise certainly got closer to the mark than I thought they would. I’m surprised they got to 32, but happy they didn’t get to 34.

San Antonio Spurs – 57.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 61

Death. Taxes. And the Spurs winning 60 games. You could set your watch to the Spurs having a great regular season. They’re just a machine of pure greatness, and this one was never in doubt.

Toronto Raptors – 50.5
Prediction: Over
Actual: 51

I thought 50 games was just about bang-on, and they won 51 by beating Cleveland on the last day of the regular season, squeezing me in another little victory.

Utah Jazz – 46.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 51

It seemed like everyone was high on the Jazz in the pre-season, and I felt like I was on an island of one, protesting for everyone to ‘chill out’.

It would appear there was a very good reason why I was marooned there by myself, as the Jazz were very good all season long.

Washington Wizards – 42.5
Prediction: Under
Actual: 49

Considering the tension between stars John Wall and Bradley Beal, I thought this team would implode. Instead, they were nothing short of amazing, after a pretty rough start. Great for them. Not so good for me.

Overall, that gives me a strike rate of 57 per cent on my predictions. While not horrible, considering the swagger with which I approached my predictions, I am feeling slightly sheepish today.

Bring on the playoffs!