Some surprise results and some impressive showings around the grounds in Round 8 helped put the focus back on actual on-field rugby this weekend, a welcome change from the potentially life-changing distractions going on off it.
It was wonderful to see the Melbourne Rebels playing with all the passion and all the emotion of the very strongly-worded statement the club put out on Friday evening.
Finally, this side that promised so much before the season kicked off had managed to play out a game, and in the process, completely shut down a Brumbies side that seemed to find itself caught between the two game plans it now claims it has available.
And that was what started me thinking about the headline question. In fact, the more I started thinking about this question, the less I thought about another nagging one. And I do want to ask you guys the other nagging question, but I’ll save it for the end.
So, who is the form Australian side currently? The weekend’s results don’t offer much of a guide, because the three teams that took the field played almost nothing like their previous outings. The ‘form is temporary’ part of the old adage might have been written with Australian rugby in mind.
The Brumbies sit seven points clear atop the conference, yet a lack of quality ball against the Rebels meant they couldn’t play the same up-tempo style from the week before, and an excellent Rebels defensive second half only added to the pressure the Brumbies’ ordinary kicking game brought upon themselves.
The selection of a 6-2 bench for the match was a fair indication of the way the Brumbies expected to play the game, but they confounded this with an inability to bend the line. They more they tried to play wide, the more ground they lost, which in turn gave up more penalties, which invited Reece Hodge to have seven shots at three points.
The Rebels looked a lot better in attack with Jack Debreczeni consistently going to the line once in the Brumbies’ half, but their execution in attack remains as big an issue as their set piece did for all bar the last ten minutes.
The Reds are unquestionably a better side with Quade Cooper steering them around, but after running up 47 points in the first hour of the game, you do have to question what happened in the last twenty minutes, where they shelled 17 points to a Kings side that always seems to leave their run too late.
And the Force and Waratahs had the bye, which cost both teams a position on the Australian conference table. The Force are arguably more consistent this season, but does that carry over a bye week?
The form team this week is probably the Rebels, in that they played a more complete game to beat the Brumbies, even if it contained more than a few areas of concern that have plagued them in previous outings.
Any momentum the Brumbies took out of the big win over the Reds is gone, while on the other hand, the Reds made the second-most handling errors for the round, and missed the second-most number of tackles to beat the Kings.
So, what do the stats say, then?
Well, the first recommendation I’ll make is that there is nothing to benefit in looking at the Australian sides’ stats alongside the rest of the competition. It just doesn’t read well by any measure, and besides, it’s been clear for several weeks already that the conference title is the biggest prize available; to take out the conference, you only have to be better than four other teams.
What the stats do show is two clear approaches to playing over the first part of the season. The Reds and Waratahs are carrying more than the other three teams, and making more metres as a result. They also lead the Australian teams in terms of clean breaks and defenders beaten, which is no great surprise.
The Force and Brumbies have been playing more of a field position game in the first eight rounds, and haven’t carried near as much. And nor have they made near as many handling errors, with the Reds and Waratahs again much higher in this measure.
Defensively, the Brumbies and Force are missing fewer tackles per game, though interestingly, this isn’t stopping the Force conceding tries.
The Rebels are kind of sitting in the middle of these two groups, and that probably reflects the way they’re playing. They’re not getting enough ball to attack as much as they want to, and they’re missing too many tackles to build pressure anyway. Which, just to underline the main question here, makes their win over the Brumbies even more impressive.
Stats can say anything you want them to, of course, but for this exercise they’re not necessarily helping; they certainly don’t give any real hint of form, and if anything, highlight the same general Australian deficiencies. The teams kicking more are scoring the same number of tries as the teams playing more ball-in-hand, essentially.
Therefore, the question is best left rhetorical. All five teams have been very up and down this season, and there’s a fair distance between those individual up and downs. And this means two things, as far as I can surmise.
The first thing is that there is clearly a lot of improvement in all five sides over the remaining nine rounds of Super Rugby, and the second is that with just seven more rounds until the June Tests, we’re potentially looking at the most open Wallabies selection race in years. Plenty of incumbent Wallabies are front and centre in the indifferent form of their teams, and it doesn’t feel like there are any certainties in any position currently.
And I reckon that actually makes the next seven weeks all the more intriguing.
Nearly as intriguing, in fact, as the other nagging question.
With the Rebels’ Friday night statement clearly stating their intention to fight to the death, and the Force’s application for an injunction – literally, a stay of execution – already in play, what is the ARU and SANZAAR’s contingency plan?
It’s a serious enough question in its’ own right, never mind bringing South African politics into the discussion.
What happens in for the 2018 season if legal action is still unresolved and Australia still has five teams expecting to play Super Rugby? Likewise, or even alternatively, if South Africa can’t get down to four teams from six?
Do SANZAAR have a plan B?
Pinetree
Guest
Train - My comparison was completely simplistic re Cooper/Spencer Foley/Donald. They are all different and good players in their own right. But in a very broad sense you can say that some players bring a higher risk factor in their play, and other are more conservative. What you want from a risk player is the benefits outweighing the negatives, and conservative players to be reliably consistent in performance. Cooper and Foley seem to fit into these 2 broad categories, and can actually complement each other re on field tactical subbing, depending on the opposition. As you rightly say, Foley is a good player and deserves his spot and has had some top games under pressure. The Crusaders/Tahs final 2014 and Wallabies/Scotland RWC 2015 on time penalty goals are a testament to his nerve control, and the England/Wallabies RWC game was a great show of a 80 minute performance. All players will lose form, generally from coming back from injury, or playing with a slight injury, sometimes it is a confidence thing. Foley has rightly been given opportunities to get his from back and have the trust backing of the coaching staff. Cooper has not had the same benefit of opportunity to grab his form back, which has been your critical point all along. All players make mistakes, and you could even look at a player like McCaw with a bias eye, and find incidences of poor play in a couple of poor games, and mark them as hopeless. I feel this is somewhat the scenario that Cooper has been dumped in, as it seems to be the same couple of incidences that get repeated over and over again. Actually, as far as off field treatment goes re fan reaction, Cooper and Donald are far more similar in that they are both unfairly criticized based on a couple of games. What is a shame is that if you support Cooper, it is automatically asserted that you don't think Foley is any good, when all we are saying is give Cooper a fair dinkum shot :)
ScottD
Roar Guru
I would laugh at that Fox except there is a horrible element of truth there, The next two weeks could be the ones that separate the men from the boys and I think I know which is which already
piru
Roar Rookie
Why are you so obsessed with me?
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Agreed. And the bloke is still running around now. It was the vitriol in 2010 that wasn't deserved.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Stephen Donald made a mistake in 2010 - but all is forgotten and he has a magic place in the heart of all true kiwi rugby fans. He completely deserves whatever cult following he has.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
So test man of the match awards and Super Rugby player of the Year awards don't count?
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Pinetree I often get very agitated when people compare Cooper to Spencer as it's so simplistic. But I can't disagree with the way you've put it, in that he is like Spencer in the way Foley is like Donald. The big difference is I felt Donald was very underrated and unfairly maligned by NZ for missing one kick in 2010. If not for the context you put around Foley and Cooper (Foley being given chances to work back in, etc.) I'd probably consider Foley underrated too.
RubberLegs
Guest
Technically no... but that last penalty was BS.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
He has in the past dependent on who is at 15. When Morahan was there was less of a reason as he was quite a running threat from the back and no better a defender. When Lance was at 15 it made sense to drop Quade back. The reason why they don't now is probably Karmichael Hunt. He just loves whacking c---s.
piru
Roar Rookie
He actually can tackle, but for some reason the Reds still play him at 15 in defence where he always ends up out of position and scrambling. Leave him at 10 and let him make one on one front on tackles in the defensive line, he's fine there.
piru
Roar Rookie
I don't have a problem with Quade, I never really did. I used to get annoyed that his cheer squad would compare him to Carter, but they seem to have come to their senses these days. He used to be a lot more volatile, but his time in Europe seems to have settled him a bit. Apparently we're not allowed to have a discussion though without nutters like Paul declaring war on all and sundry.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I've repeatedly said I don't work for the ARU and said I don't know anybody at the ARU. I'm just able to judge and comment without being an overly emotional goose, and sticking to all the facts. You haven't looked at the information that is available. Why are you asking for more?
Jibba Jabba
Roar Guru
Hahahahah hilarious twassy - all weekend you and your team were gobbing off but not once did you supply or answer why your aru colleagues do not / will not produce the criteria they used for the detailed 'analysis' etc which decided the team to be cut and now you say people should have an informed opinion. Your closest response was the fans have no right to it... but then to carry on and say they don't make informed opinions when we live in a society with the most access to information beggars belief. If the aru has to make certain decisions, make them, dont prevaricate and cloud the process thereby frustrating the fanbase as has happened. Do what you are paid to do, do it properly, explain the decision making process and the world will move on. If its a political decision say so, if its based on factual reasons sy so but be prepared to prove that. (Even tho in your world twassy the fans do not have the right to that) . And Brett FYI nowhere have i seen twassy deny categorically he does not have an association with the aru whether as an employee, former employee, wife of, husband of, board member or whatever. And that was alluded to on many occasions. The entity known as twas does supply factual information and accurate historical information, good, but it only goes so far.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
And that comment is the most you've contributed to any discussion.
FARMER
Guest
No one cares about the BLUES/CANES match ... .Onya bike, Waxears .Go over to stuffall.co.nz if you want Wax lyrical about un zud teams ......
FARMER
Guest
HAHA This is why Chieka was down at TAHS training last week...If he could, Chieka would pick 15 TAHS, i have no doubt about it.. MC preferred Wallaby 15 1 Robertson 2 TPN 3 Kepu 4 Skelton 5 Douglas 6 Mumm 7 Hooper 8 Holloway 9 Gordon 10 Foley 11 Robinson 12 Beale 13 Horne 14 Nayavororo 15 Folau
FARMER
Guest
@ Waxhead He looked great in one game against England 2015 and ok in another v Wales 2015..Rubbish in every other game..
Jibba Jabba
Roar Guru
Well twassy you were having a mass debate on the weekend !
Paul
Guest
Thanks Timbo (L) Piru is a wee bit slow between the ears , so the sarcasm may have sunk in by now..He`ll learn being a rookie n all.Fingers crossed. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Paul
Guest
Correct..Only one red card in 11 years of pro rugby, and that last was was not a red...