The more things change, the more they stay the same, and no team recognises this more than the New England Patriots, who consistently contend for championships year after year.
Bill Belichick. Tom Brady. Robert Kraft. These were the names driving the ship in 2001 and they’re still navigating the NFL’s high seas now. This year they will again pilot New England as the team sets course on becoming the first franchise since themselves in 2005 to successfully defend a Super Bowl title. Here’s why they can do it.
1. Personnel
The off-season was a huge tick for New England, re-signing their priority-free agent Dont’a Hightower and gaining the services of Stephon Gilmore, Mike Gillislee, Kony Ealy and Brandin Cooks.
The Patriots did lose Martellus Bennett and Logan Ryan from their Super Bowl-winning roster, but these pieces are replaceable – Dwayne Allen is a blocking tight end who will deliver a similar output to Bennett while Gilmore is an upgrade on Ryan in the secondary.
NFL media personalities were also hot on the Patriots’ draftees, with Football Outsiders crediting New England with a GPA of 3.33, the fourth highest in the league.
2. Gronk
Essentially a new recruit for the Patriots, Rob Gronkowski, who missed half of the 2016 season with a back injury, immediately improves New England’s team from Super Bowl LI. Although he has significant durability concerns, Gronk is the best tight end in the game and provides Brady with a game-changing asset.
When he’s not shirtless in Boston sculling beer or off on one of his party cruises, Gronk demands double and sometimes even triple coverage, which opens the field for wily receivers like Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan.
This season the Patriots also have the lightning-quick Cooks on the outside, whom could require man coverage with secondary help over the top, such is his blistering speed. The problem for opposition teams is that you can’t double-team both Gronk and Cooks.
3. Stronger defence
New England had one of the best red-zone defences in the league last year, but that stat exaggerated their ability. A more reflective representation of the Patriots defence is the 328.3 yards allowed per game figure, which is the eighth best in the league. It’s not a poor defence by any means, but it did place added pressure on Brady and the offence.
This season the secondary will be better thanks to the addition of Gilmore, who should enable the Patriots to shut down an opposition wide receiver one-on-one rather than using Malcolm Butler or Eric Rowe with safety help over the top, allowing more pass rush possibilities for Matt Patricia.
Additionally, New England should expect greater output from developing players like Trey Flowers, Cyrus Jones and Malcolm Brown.
(Image: Jeffrey Beall / CC BY-SA 3.0)
4. The best back-up quarterback in the NFL
They have arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, but the Patriots could lay claim to the best back-up, too. New England resisted the temptation of cashing in Jimmy Garoppolo for draft picks this year, meaning the team is well placed at quarterback if Brady goes down or finally succumbs to Max Kellerman’s cliff.
It’s an enviable position and a damn good insurance policy knowing you have two players in the game’s most important position that are better than half of the league.
5. The AFC East
While Miami is a playoff contender, the rest of the AFC East isn’t expected to be a threat this year. The Jets are rebuilding and have shipped off most of their veterans while the Buffalo Bills still don’t have a quarterback. Consequently the Patriots should be confident of emerging from their division with at least a 5-1 record over their rivals.
6. Continuity in positions that matter
The NBA obsesses over its ‘big threes’ dating back to Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parish in the 1980s to LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love today. The NFL’s equivalent is a slam dank. Kraft (owner), Belichick (coach) and Brady (quarterback) have led the Patriots since 2001, claiming five Super Bowls and seven AFC Championships.
Similarly, the offensive and defensive coordinators, Patricia and Josh McDaniels, have been calling the shots since 2012. Having stability in such critical positions is reassuring for players and coaches, especially considering these guys know how to get it done.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The seasons tick over and the personnel often changes, but the foundations have been the same for 16 years – so you shouldn’t bet against the outcome: New England going all the way, changing.
joe
Guest
True,New England traditionally had struggled at Denver.Its been the one place Brady has a losing record in his career
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
Bradford was solid for the Vikes, with little-to-no support from his O-line. We're getting into semantics now but technically he's the starter. Minnesota traded valuable assets for him to replace Bridgewater, who is still injured - reportedly going to miss the entire 2017 season too.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
off the top of my head and no looking at any depth charts, whoever is backup in Minnesota
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
If he's not THE best he's certainly in the conversation. Who would you rather takeover under centre if your starting QB went down?
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
The @ Denver and Oakland in Mexico back-to-back will be tough too. The AFC East might be crap but this year's schedule is definitely tougher than previous years for the Pats
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
No question it's going to be tough, but I there's a pretty strong argument to say we're well placed to do it. Being in the AFC East helps with that too, and we're nearly a certainty to advance from the AFC. No matter how good the Steelers are Belichick just has the wood over them. I know Bell got injured in last year's Championship game but history shows Pittsburgh just can't beat New England. Texans will be good if Watson can be solid at QB too.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
A guy with 63 pass attempts is the best backup in the league?
joe
Guest
When you look at New England's schedule they should go at worst 6-2 at home.Most likely 7-1. They catch a break playing Miami in Florida in December which is far easier than playing them down there in September or October when its still really hot & humid. The one really bad scheduling scenario is they get 3 straight road games in December, the last one being at Pittsburgh. But overall it looks like another 12-4,13-3 type campaign for New England, which will result in a #1 or #2 seed in January
One Armed Scissor
Guest
Exactly!! the NFL head office should double the salary cap for the all other AFC east teams besides the patriots - just for the boredom factor alone if the Pats do it all again.
joe
Guest
While ever the Pats play in the AFC East they are going to in all likelihood make the playoffs. Usually they are a 1 or 2 seed so from that starting point its a case of can they win back to back home playoff games in January? It sounds crazy but for years that the way you have to look at it.The Jets are a mess.Buffalo is Buffalo, a 7-9,8-8 type team.Miami usually gives New England a hard time when the game is early in season down in Florida but at the end of the day the Pats will go 5-1 in its division.So in the remaining 10 games they could be 5-5 & get into the playoffs with a 10-6 record & a Wild Card berth at worst. They'll probably go 6-4 or 7-3 in non divisional games & finish 12-4 have that #1 seed & like i said,win 2 home games in January & they're in the SuperBowl. Whether they win or lose depends on a variety of factors but being able to get there is more difficult than winning it.New England's path to the SuperBowl is easier than many teams in more competitive divisions.
John
Guest
One of the biggest challenges is that the opposition gets better every year as well. Dallas has a year more experience among their superb rookies, Seattle will be better, and Pittsburgh will be better as well. I live in New England so am definitely a Brady and Patriots fan, but as you know its tough to repeat in the NFL.