The 2019 World Cup draw appears to be a blessing for the Wallabies, as they managed to avoid the pool of death.
If teams perform according to their seedings – as a tennis fan, I can say this is a very dubious assumption – Australia should avoid England and New Zealand, the top two teams in the world, until the final.
However, the draw is an equally excellent opportunity for both South Africa and Ireland.
Australia
Australia’s main threats are Georgia and Wales. Georgia are a much-improved side, a fantastic rugby success story, and may well challenge for a spot in the knock-out stages in a few World Cups time.
However, I do not see them as beating Australia by 2019.
Wales is the one team who Australia has consistently beaten without much trouble since 2007. However, the Wallabies are capable of losing to anyone on their day, and Wales lifted strongly against both England and Ireland in the Six Nations this year.
Ireland
Ireland’s pool features Scotland and Japan.
Scotland beat Ireland in the Six Nations and are much better than previous years, while Japan proved in 2015 that they can beat anyone, and with a home crowd behind them, should be dangerous in 2019.
That said, Ireland should top their pool, which would mean they will likely face…
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South Africa
In a pool with the All Blacks and Italy, South Africa’s results since 2013 have been less than stellar, and Alistair Coetzee taking the reins has seen their run of results turn downright disastrous, including a loss to Italy.
If Coetzee is retained as coach, it is difficult to see them beating the All Blacks, given the trio of poor coaching, player drain to Europe and internal South African rugby politics. Being in the same pool as the New Zealand though, means they won’t have to play them again until the final.
Despite the 2016 loss, the Springboks should beat Italy, and then anyone who plays them in a quarter-final or semi-final would be foolish to underestimate them.
If Coetzee is not the coach – say, if someone like Jake White is brought in at short notice to try and fix things – then every team in the draw should be afraid.
Between their players in Europe and South Africa, the Springboks could easily be the second-best team in the world, and a big threat to New Zealand by 2019.
Quater-finals
According to seedings, Australia should top their pool and play France in the quarter-finals. France are improving after their terrible form in recent years, but were beaten by Australia’s up and comers in 2016, so the Wallabies should win that match and likely play whoever wins out of Ireland or South Africa.
Both Ireland and South Africa should be confident for this quarter-final, and likewise see the semi-final as winnable. Likewise, Australia should view an out-of-form South Africa and Ireland as an equally winnable semi-final.
England and New Zealand drew the short straw, which of the others will make the dream draw count?
cantab
Guest
Ireland has the worst draw out of anyone. quarterfinal with either NZ or SA is a bad outcome.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Fair, Neil, comprehensive is probably a more accurate description.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Good. So we're agreed then. The assertion 'without much trouble' is wrong and we're using the more accurate 'comprehensive'.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
SA chose a political system It really can be discussed if they "choose" that system. Let's not forget many white people in SA was not suporters of apartheid at all (but if you cared about your life, you had to keep a very low profile with those opinions). And during the 80's, that white minority became a majority and things - Thank God - started to change around 1989/90. so the world cups cups held during their time of suspension did not count? They don't count 100 % in my book, that is all. I am not saying they were non contests, just that I don't rate them. For a WC to be legit, the best teams must be in it, otherwise it is not a real WC. For instance, I don't really rate the first three WC's in soccer either, too many of great nations were missing.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
France is coming to NZ next year for a Test Series. After that serie we should know what we can expect from France in the WC. And I agree, France have looked alright the last 12 months and seem to be improving.
BBA
Guest
I thought France didnt look too bad in the Autumn internationals and the 6 Nations. I can see them improving to be a threat by 2019, can also see them not making the playoffs In anycase sometimes you can get a dream draw and sometimes to win it you have to beat whatever gets put in front of you. You could argue that the Ab's had the hardest of draws for them in the 2015 RwC in that they had to play the only 3 teams that have ever beaten them in the RwC to win it. Get through to the playoffs and worry about who you are playing once they in turn have qualified.
BBA
Guest
Just one minor point I disagree with Dav, NZ was not the best team going into the 95 RWC I though that was South Africa. I think some people forget NZ has bad years like other teams. The difference is that our bad periods tend to not last so long and the team can refresh itself. NZ after a period of domination from 87 to 91 had tough years after the 87 core team started to fade and it really was a fast gel in 1995 with some young blood that made a difference to an experienced core with Mehrtens, Lomu, Jeff Wilson & J Kronfeld stepping up along with some stalwarts Z brooke, M Jones, S Fitzpatrick etc. Whilst SA deservedly won the 95 RwC final I think the AB's had established themselves as being a very scary team that was probably the best in the world, at that time. All the other RwC winners were either very dominant up to the time they won the RwC (i.e. England in 2003) or after the RwC say Boks / Wallabies 2007 and 1991. By the way not knocking the 95 Bok team at all in many ways you could argue taht it was one of the greatest RwC triumphs given how much they had struggled after reintegration and the politics going on in the background.
Tutema
Guest
WHy Fionn asumess that Australia would play France in QF. Argentina is capable of going to QF beating France. It would be difficult to beat England today, but nothing is said yet.
Gavin Tyler
Guest
So, Neutral when Sharapova was banned for using drugs all the Grand Slams that were held during that suspension time do not count? For something she chose to do? SA chose a political system that the free world did not agree with and were banned from international rugby and other sports... so the world cups cups held during their time of suspension did not count? For something they chose to do? You have some flawed logic. Wake up to the real world!!!!!
Gavin Tyler
Guest
How old are you Neutral? 4?
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Have you seen France since 2011? And based on current seedings and results over the past two years the Wallabies, South Africa and Ireland should all beat France.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
SA 2007, England 2003 and OZ 1999 all became World Champs without paying against the AB's.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I'm sorry, 10 in a row is indeed a record to be confident in, it's not a lopsided rivalry, it is a one-sided rivalry. Eventually Wales will win one, but the Wallabies must be overwhelming favourites to top the group. Australia, I believe, bottomed in 2016, and a terrible Australian side still thrashed an absolutely horrendous Wales side in Wales. Perhaps Wales will improve by 2019 and be better than Aus (it really would not surprise me), but on current form, Australia should at least make the quarters, from there, the finals birth is anyone's game.
Chucked
Guest
The lack of respect for France is surprising. Australia SHOULD beat france?. This is the same France who've beaten All Blacks twice in World cups and made THREE finals.
davSA
Guest
Sure thing Neil Back .. But I still maintain whether its in the quarters ,or semis they will have to be taken out . Should the AB's make the final it will take a very brave , foolish, drunk or drugged person to bet against them.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Not necessarily. As good as they are, quite conceivable they could suffer another semi-final exit.
davSA
Guest
And conversely any team that hopes to win the World cup will at some stage have to beat The All Blacks.
Jake
Guest
"Almost everywhere is an ‘immigrant country..................."So no, we know that Aus is just like Eng, Ire and all the major players."" Incorrect. Almost every country has immigrants but only NZ, US, Canada and Australia are countries that have been built on immigration, and continue to do so. And no, Aus isn't 'just like england and ireland. Almost 30% of Oz citizens were born OS. 50% have at least one parent born OS. England and Ireland, don't even come close to those numbers.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
I agree with Jeffrey here also. AB's dominated that game. And if Owens missed to dish out any cards, it was against the WB's, I saw two late late hits on Carter in the first half, both clear yellows.All AB's got was one penalty. And yes, without Benders yellow, AB's would have won easy.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
I think the AB's will have a different Mindset. The will assume that they are going to win the RWC again and to do it they will need to beat England and Either Australia or Ireland. I don't think they care what order they do it, they will both be tough games there is no prize for 2nd place.