The time of the year has arrived once again, and for the first time in a long time, New South Wales has the self-belief that they can poke another hole into Queensland’s shining armour.
While Queensland will this year have the luxury of two home games for the first time since 2014, they will be severely undermanned, with four of their biggest stars to miss through either injury or retirement.
After 36 consecutive Origin matches dating back to his debut in Game I, 2005, Maroons stalwart Johnathan Thurston will be missing after ruling himself out due to a shoulder injury.
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Matt Scott and Greg Inglis will also be missing after suffering season-ending knee injuries earlier this season, while warhorse Corey Parker has retired.
While the quartet’s absence means the Maroons have lost over 100 games of experience, they still have some good, quality leaders in Darius Boyd, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk.
Boyd has retained his place at fullback despite the impressive recent form of Billy Slater in his comeback from a shoulder injury, with that controversial call by coach Kevin Walters set to shape the entire series.
In Thurston’s absence, Anthony Milford will make his debut in the number six jumper, partnering the seasoned Cooper Cronk in the halves. Already the Blues have made clear their intentions to target the rookie five-eighth.
The other debutant for the Maroons is Sydney Roosters prop Dylan Napa, who along with Milford was banned from Origin selection for twelve months following a fracas during the Emerging Origin camp last year.
Will Chambers and Michael Morgan also come into the side beaten in the dead rubber match last July.
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
We now turn our focus to the Blues, who will have a new captain following the representative retirement of Paul Gallen, as well as have Jarryd Hayne and Mitchell Pearce come back into the side.
Roosters co-captain Boyd Cordner is their new skipper, and he has been tasked with trying to establish what the state hopes to be a new, successful era after ten series losses in the past eleven years.
He returns to the side after missing Games II and III last year due to a foot injury. His absence proved to be the difference as the Blues lost their tenth series in eleven years.
Hayne returns after nearly two years out of rugby league, and for the first time since he proved central to the Blues’ 2014 series win in which he famously ran the ball dead in the final minutes of the second game.
Pearce, on the other hand, couldn’t have been in much better form for the Roosters this year, twelve months after being the subject of the Australia Day video scandal which wrecked both his and the club’s 2016 season.
Often made the scapegoat for the Blues’ Origin failures over the past decade, many believe that he has matured enough to regain the number seven jumper which has proven to be a poisoned chalice since Andrew Johns’ retirement at the end of the 2005 series.
The Blues have two debutants in Jake Trbojevic and Nathan Peats, who will become the first man other than Robbie Farah or Michael Ennis to wear the number nine jumper since it was vacated by Danny Buderus in 2008.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Let’s now have a look at each of the two sides, as well as the ins and outs from Game III last year.
Queensland
Darius Boyd, Corey Oates, Will Chambers, Justin O’Neill, Dane Gagai, Anthony Milford, Cooper Cronk, Dylan Napa, Cameron Smith (c), Nate Myles, Josh Papalii, Matt Gillett, Josh McGuire. Interchange: Michael Morgan, Sam Thaiday, Aidan Guerra, Jacob Lillyman. 18th man: Jarrod Wallace.
From Game III last year:
In: Will Chambers, Anthony Milford*, Dylan Napa*, Michael Morgan.
Out: Greg Inglis, Johnathan Thurston, Matt Scott, Corey Parker.
New South Wales
James Tedesco, Brett Morris, Josh Dugan, Jarryd Hayne, Blake Ferguson, James Maloney, Mitchell Pearce, Aaron Woods, Nathan Peats, Andrew Fifita, Josh Jackson, Boyd Cordner (c), Tyson Frizell. Interchange: David Klemmer, Wade Graham, Jake Trbojevic, Jack Bird. 18th man: Matt Moylan. 19th man: Jordan McLean. 20th man: Jack de Belin. Coach: Laurie Daley.
From Game III last year:
In: Brett Morris, Jarryd Hayne, Mitchell Pearce, Nathan Peats*, Boyd Cordner, Jake Trbojevic*
Out: Matt Moylan^, Michael Jennings, Josh Mansour, Robbie Farah, Paul Gallen, James Tamou.
* – denotes debut.
^ – denotes relegation to 18th man or lower
Why the Maroons will win
Of the many reasons why the Maroons will win tomorrow night, the most obvious one is the fact that they are playing at home.
Despite fielding its weakest side in over a decade, the Maroons still have quality players across the park in Darius Boyd, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith, and the state will be banking on the trio to get them over the line.
They also have two home games for the first time since 2014, so a win in the opening game will be crucial to their chances of winning their eleventh series in twelve years.
Why the Blues will win
This is arguably the strongest Blues side that Laurie Daley has put together during his tenure as coach, with the top three Sydney clubs – the Sharks, Dragons and Roosters – supplying nine of the 17 players between them – that’s half the side.
For the first time, Mitchell Pearce will not have to oppose his Queensland nemesis Johnathan Thurston on the Origin arena, so it’s fair to say he won’t be exposed as much as he was in previous years.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
They also have the self-belief that they can win this year’s series – the last time a Game I was played in Brisbane, in 2014, they won 12-8, setting them up to break their eight-year Origin hoodoo.
Interestingly, three of their last four series wins have came in years when they played in the Sunshine capital twice (2003, 2005 and 2014).
The verdict
The opening game of any Origin series will always bring up many subplots, such as whether the debutants named by the two sides can deliver on one of the biggest rugby league stages in Australia and just how the halves will function.
Although the Maroons will be missing key personnel to injuries and retirement (in the case of Corey Parker), they have their strong record at Suncorp Stadium and an expected crowd of over 52,000 to fall back on.
On the other hand, it will remain to be seen how the Blues handle being favourites in enemy territory for the first time since 2005, with the side they have fielded the strongest it has been for a very long time.
In the end, you just can’t take the Maroons lightly, especially at home.
Prediction
Queensland by two points.
Mitcher
Guest
Have I stumbled onto the SMH (Fairfax) Facebook page?
Lidcombe Oval
Guest
Well it is a premium event they say so they charge what they want and the punters either pay it or watch it at home in the comfort of their lounge room. I wonder in years to come when the series is on FOX and you have to pay for it how many will actual go to the game live. Good old Tories looking after us all in changing the anti siphoning laws for domestic sport- not
thomas c
Guest
NSW may win, but i think they're getting ahead of themselves. And if they win, they may think they deserve it. It's not necessarily a helpful attitude. QLD will get back thurston later this year, and will likely get back Inglis and Scott back next year. If they're defeated (especially badly), they might reevaluate Wallace and Billy Slater. Winning a game, or a series or two could happen by accident. Queensland won 10 out of 11. I like NSW to win this game, this series and then maybe another one or two, but I've not convinced they've gotten the culture right. At least some of their players are a little obnoxious, Jarred Hayne seems mostly loyal to Jarred Hayne, and selecting a superstar on reputation left at least a couple guys waiting in the wings who deserved a shot. Jarrod Croker, James Roberts aren't bad players, and in Hayne, you're selecting someone whose attitude has seen him fined by his own team mates, and who can be argued to have left the sport because he thought he was bigger than it. I appreciate loyalty, but maybe he doesn't deserve it. rant. rant. rant.
Steve
Guest
To claim Cordner's absence was the difference is a massive stretch. NSW depth in the backrow is exceptional and I think they can cover any injuries easily, all are similar players. For me the best of the lot is Wade Graham and they've picked him on the bench!
matth
Guest
The saddest part of this is that tickets are still available. No wonder when I went in to look at tickets for 2 adults a student and a child and is would have cost $730.
Ziusudra
Guest
"His absence proved to be the difference as the Blues lost their tenth series in eleven years." ??? Dont get me wrong, Cordner is a fine player and I think he will lift the shield this year, but you seriously think that, had he stayed fit in 2016, NSW would have won the series? The difference between a Qld side with Inglis, Scott, Thurston and Parker (plus Cronk, Smith, Boyd, Gillett) and a NSW side without such names was Cordner getting hurt?