Round 12 was another weekend of upset results, one that arguably provided more questions than answers. Something definitive however, was clarified at the Gabba on Saturday afternoon.
In case there was any doubt, Brisbane put to bed any thought or contention that Fremantle were a legitimate top eight side.
The Dockers had been a sheep in wolves clothing up until Round 9, a bottom four team masquerading as a potential finalist thanks to their 6-3 win-loss record and fifth place on the ladder, even though their percentage was a tick over 90, which ranked 14th.
The problem was, three of Fremantle’s six wins had been by less than a goal, over Melbourne, North and Richmond, each coming with the last goal of the day. Each of these matches could easily have gone the other way, but to be fair to the Dockers they probably did deserve to win at least one or even two of them.
The last three rounds have seen Freo’s true colours come to the surface.
First, it was losing by the even 100 points to Adelaide in Adelaide, followed by a 20-point defeat at home to a Collingwood line-up with barely a fit man to call upon late in the game, and then came Saturday’s humiliation in Brisbane, a 57-point loss that felt like more while watching it.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
The Dockers now sit in 10th, with a reasonable chance they’ll fall to 12th while having the bye next week. A percentage of 78 is the third worst in the competition thanks to the combination of close wins and savage defeats.
Once again, it’s scoring, that old chestnut, that is at the heart of Fremantle’s problems. Only Carlton, they of the defence-first game-plan as Brendon Bolton builds his team from the ground up, has scored less per game than Ross Lyon’s men.
The Dockers midfield doesn’t exactly drown their forward-line with opportunities, but the lack of finishing class is a problem.
Cam McCarthy, Shane Kersten and Matthew Taberner all have individual capabilities, but have long periods of games where they have no impact. Hayden Ballantyne hasn’t played a game through injury but is on the way out anyway, and the class of Michael Walters has been needed through the midfield.
David Mundy and Lachie Neale have stepped up to fill a hole inside 50 when they can through rotations, and have provided clinical finishing at important times, but they can’t be everywhere.
Nat Fyfe appeared to be rested forward more on the weekend as his body looks to be battling. Weight was given to this theory with his contested possession count of only five against Brisbane. You have to go back to Round 20, 2010 to find a match where he had less.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Fyfe has been the subject of much discussion this season, as befitting a Brownlow medallist that is out of contract at the end of the year. The fact he only played five matches in 2016, and is coming off severe injury, has added to the intrigue.
Comparing the straight numbers from Fyfe’s 2017 to his combined 2014-15 zenith, and there is a clear drop-off. Disposals are down, contested possessions are down, clearances are down. His clanger count is up.
But while the numbers suggest a drop-off, they are not as significant as the naked eye. He is lacking that explosive, ball-tearing, you’ll-have-to-shoot-me-to-stop-me animal momentum through the ball, through the man and through stoppages that was his trademark.
Frankly, Fyfe’s standard was so high, that he can’t help but fail in comparison to himself, especially coming off a broken leg. The bye has come at the right time for him, and hopefully we see him return to his very best in the second half of the season.
Fremantle are scoring 15 points less than the competition average, and conceding a goal more. The backline is full of jobbers who do what they can.
When comparing their numbers to the average of teams currently in the top eight, the Dockers are four goals short in attack, and two goals off the pace in defence. That’s six goals a game behind in total.
In short, they are nowhere near the standard required to be a finals contender.
Fremantle are not about 2017, and can not be. The fans may not like it, but they simply aren’t good enough. They have to be looking towards 2018, 2019 and beyond.
Lachie Weller, Connor Blakely and Ed Langdon are three 21-year-olds that look the brightest prospects. Cam McCarthy is only 22. Brad Hill is 23, Lachie Neale has just turned 24. We need to see some more names added to that list of ten year players aged in their early 20s, that a grand final team can be built around.
Fremantle are further away from contending for a premiership than any other team in the league, with the exception of probably Hawthorn. But, the Hawks have four recent flags in the bank. The Dockers have none.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
Freo have a first-round pick in this year’s draft, but nothing in the second round. That pick needs to be a high one, and it needs to be a good one. A bottom four finish would see that first round pick, and then something around pick 40, as their next selection.
The Dockers don’t have many tradeable commodities to try and get some higher picks. Nat Fyfe is obviously one, if they wanted to be outrageously bold. Michael Walters is really the only other player that could fetch a high draft yield. Both are Western Australia boys though, which makes things harder.
The rest of the list are either too old, too young, or no good. It’s a tough spot to be in.
Fremantle are not a good football team. They may only have a couple of wins left in them this season, and it would be in their best interests for this to be the case. Can they build into something good by next decade? That remains to be seen, and is anyone’s guess.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Has anyone told ALF central about these results? They can cancel the rest of the season and just go straight into finals using this data.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Agreed, Don. Ballas is very important to our forward line, even more so now with Walters running through the middle a lot more. Of the three S boys, the saddest story is Spurr's. He used to be a quality small defender who would mostly keep his opponent in check, while regularly peeling off to take important intercepts. But like Ibbo last year, he seems to have lost his groove. As a consequence, we don't have a reliable small defender anymore. Maybe you're right, and Grey's the man for the job. He's certainly been having an impact in the forward 50. I don't really recall him setting the world on fire those two or three (?) games he played down back in previous seasons, but they were hardly opportunities to shine (esp Peel v Port in 2015) and there's no doubt his being delisted last year put a rocket up him.
Don Freo
Guest
That is not "a long way" from 2 goals a game at all. It is outstanding. Brad Hardie is the most bitter commentator around. Freo boycotted 6 PR in 2016 because of Hardie's unfounded anti-Freo rumour mongering. No Fremantle official personnel made themselves available to that radio station. At the start of the 2017 season, 6PR sacked him from the radio programme he had done for over 10 years as a consequence and replaced him with Paul Haselby. Since Hardie's departure, Freo has opened communication with 6PR. Hardie, himself has a token 10 minute spot on a sports segment in the mid-week drive slot and a Saturday morning for 2 hours...just to work off wages paid in advance. This article is an explosion of Hardie's bitterness. This is the bloke who sold his Brownlow to pay his gambling debts and now he is gunning for someone to blame for his latest life failure. Hardie did not "quote" Ross Lyon at all. It was Hardie's own embittered opinion.
Jon boy
Guest
Agree on the the 3 s boys Crozier has to go Back Finished last year really well as did Collins Both omitted round 1-2 You quoted Ballas kicks over 2 a game....Another porky pie.....143 games 221 goals along way of your guess you are right about his defensive pressure along with Mayne was great 1994 But fell completely away 95-96 Great Article from Brad Hardie Quotes Ross Lyon Is Horribly out of Form
Don Freo
Guest
Spurr, Sutcliffe or Sheridan...Grey plays his best footy in the back pocket. The 3 S boys cannot defend. That is Grey's strength. Crozier, also, should go back...or out. He is not a good forward. That's why we need Ballas. He kicks goals (over 2/game) and no one defends in the forward line like he does. If you have been to games (as you claim you do), you see the pressure work he does. That rarely shows up on TV. No defence, for instance, can ever run down the clock when Ballas is challenging.
Don Freo
Guest
Ballas wanted a longer contract at Freo but that was it.he never asked to leave. He would never leave his future at Baldivis. JonBoy and Haggers can guess all they want but neither is correct about anything yet. They are just anti-Freo. Who knows why?
Jon boy
Guest
NO Rumour FACT even YOU Really no that but you have said yourself you do not believe in Facts,Stats or Reality Of course only when it suits You Twist it to suit yourself....Go Dockers Don Flag in 2020
Macca
Guest
For those who think Champion data has any clue; http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/dockers-no-chance-of-playing-finals-according-to-champion-data-20170615-gwrv8m.html
Jon boy
Guest
Freo Were almost at Full strength rounds1-2 Even the great Sandi Played Only 2 top 22 players unavailable Alex Pearce wont be back to his best till mid 2018 Bennell I HOPE am wrong will probably never be able to string games together that is the nature of calf injuries Langdon will replace Grey Which youngster would you dropto make way for Ballas? I was at the G.F> Maybe you were To All Ballas did all day was fallover and was ranked 44 on the day He would fit in well at the Weagles his record away from the 3 tier stand is shocking
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Ballas was looking for a longer contract, and his manager was shopping him around to try and get an offer (as a good manager should). There's no doubt that Ballas' preference was for an extension at Freo, but whether he would've accepted an offer from WCE if they were prepared to give him an extra year and Freo weren't prepared to match...? who knows. I don't give the least bit of credence to Jon boy's and anon's assessment of Ballas. I consider his absence a big factor in the poor performance in the first two rounds.
Jon boy
Guest
Paul Just snapped up a bit of 12-1 GO for it mate. you never know. Backed a nag @ 80-1 in a field of 15 Only 2 in this one
Paul D
Roar Guru
You should definitely hold onto Ballantyne Don – I don’t want to risk even the very very slight chance he winds up at the Lions if you trade him
Don Freo
Guest
All of Freo knows Ballas was not looking for a trade. Ballas said it, Ross said it... The only one who pedalled that was Kim Hagdorn who has been wrong about every Freo rumour he has started. His rumour was just reported by others. There was never substance to it. JonBoy/anon's assessment of Ballas is comical.
Jon boy
Guest
Thats correct No one wanted him and why would they ranked 44 in GF been a dismal failure since it is time for youth.. Rebuild has to be moved on
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
On my reading, Ballas was only looking for a trade because he wanted a longer contract than what Freo were prepared to offer at that time.
Jon boy
Guest
Spot on F F. Sutcliffe.Sheridan, not A.FL.standard along with Suban,Ballantyne ,Dawson, Pearce all Failed in Finals and let us down big time since. I think Cox, Ryan, Hughes,Grey and Logue will become good AFL players. Taberner Will Make it 6 goals in 2 consecative games shows that.. then he had a Couple of wet tracks which did not suit him. He should replace Kersten Next game ,hopefully wrong looks like a Lemon... Have to give a rap to Hamling been sensational Best 3 every game
FreoFan
Roar Rookie
Sutcliffe and Sheridan really are the two for me that need to show us what they are made of real quick. They get sent back to the WAFL and perform well but then don't quite seem to be up to AFL level. Tabs is a tricky one - I really hope he can continue to develop and become a very handy player. I think he has it in him but he seems to lose confidence quite easily. Apeness has had terrible luck with injuries so I hope he can get over them because I do think he could be very good. There is the base for a strong team at Freo but there is certainly a few gaps that need filling.
FreoFan
Roar Rookie
Ha should be an absolute ripper Cam! We will have to wait and see... Our win-loss is reflective of our ability to get the job done when it's been tight but our percentage is reflective of totally dropping our bundle when things don't go our way. Totally open to your line of thinking in terms of us being 6-3 and then getting to 6-6. We should have got ourselves to 8-4 or at least 7-5 from there based on form and our opponents the last 3 rounds. But I think overall looking at the entire first half of the season we are sitting better than you would have expected. It's not been a journey in a straight line that is for sure.
Mattician6x6
Guest
OK young was probably not the best word to describe my thought Don, established player and development player are better wordings.
Jon boy
Guest
FREO Got absolutely Flogged in the first 2 games and the mighty Sandi-cow played when he went down with the Turf Toe They won 10 games 5 included Pav. also out so its beyond me why they need him now The most Over Rated Player Ever