Why fears of the Sydney Swans' demise have been greatly exaggerated

After starting this season with six straight losses, and occupying last place on the ladder for the first time since 1999, many feared that the Sydney Swans’ golden finals run would come to an end this year.

The Swans have proven to be the most consistent team over the past two decades of AFL football, missing the finals just three times since 1995. They’ve won over 50 per cent of finals matches contested and taken out two flags from six grand final appearances.

They haven’t missed the finals since 2009, and have lasted until at least the semi-final stage in each of the last seven years.

And even after losing last year’s grand final to the Western Bulldogs, many AFL experts listed them among the favourites to win this year’s flag.

Thus it came as a massive shock when the Swans dropped their first six matches of the season, in the process dropping to last place on the ladder – a sight extremely unfamiliar with Swans fans – for the first time since 1993.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

They lost their season opener to Port Adelaide – who hadn’t won at the SCG since 2006, then went down to the Bulldogs, Collingwood, the West Coast Eagles (in Perth), the GWS Giants at home and then Carlton at the MCG.

After their Round 5 loss to the Giants, many believed that the tide was finally starting to turn in the newer club’s favour after the Swans had dominated the Sydney market between their relocation from South Melbourne in 1982 up until the Giants’ entry into the AFL in 2012.

But eight rounds and six wins later, the Swans have suddenly rocketed back into finals calculations, and temporarily entered the top eight following its thrilling one-point win over Essendon at the SCG on Friday night.

John Longmire’s men appeared dead for all money when they trailed the Bombers by 19 points with less than five minutes remaining, but somehow they were able to pull a trick or two out of the hat to keep their season alive.

Oliver Florent kicked what appeared to be only a consolation goal, before Lance “Buddy” Franklin unloaded with a bomb that appeared to have gone through, only to be controversially denied after a video review.

Those two scores brought the margin back to twelve points, before Nic Newman kicked another goal to suddenly bring the margin back to six points with 80 seconds to play.

At this point, a draw looked to be the only possibility.

The Bombers then thought they’d won it after Joe Daniher, whose form has improved since his well-documented shocker against Melbourne in Round 6, took a game-saving mark in defence with less than a minute remaining.

Channel Seven commentator Brian Taylor joked, “was it Leo Barry?”, referencing the retired defender’s famous mark in the 2005 grand final which won the Swans their first flag in 72 years.

But there was another twist to come – the Swans would get the ball back and Buddy would miss again – and the match appeared seemingly lost.

However, a clever smother by Tom Papley from Brendon Goddard’s kick-in would force a stoppage, from which Dane Rampe would kick the ball to Gary Rohan, who’d have the chance to win his side the match after the final siren.

(AAP Image/David Moir)

Given the position he was in, the Swans players were already celebrating even though the injury-plagued forward was yet to have his shot at goal.

Then, after the final siren sounded, Rohan indeed kicked truly and the Swans would score their first one-point win since mid-2011, and first win after the final siren since early 2005, to keep their finals hopes alive.

While the Swans earned praise for the way they came back from an impossible position, their former coach, Paul Roos, blasted the Bombers for the way they lost from the position they were in.

It was the second time in three years the Swans had come back from such a deficit in a match against Essendon – in Round 1, 2015, they came back from 41 points down midway through the third quarter to win by 12 points, scoring 53 unanswered points in the process.

It’s hard to believe that this was the same team that started a season 0-6 for the first time since 1993, and had just contested last year’s grand final which it lost to the Western Bulldogs.

Their poor start to the season was put down by injuries to key players, including former co-captains Kieren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh, as well as the cockiness of several “big heads”, according to defender Dane Rampe.

They could so easily have won any of their first six matches of the season, given they held leads in each of those matches. In fact, the Swans have led in all of their matches this year, a sign that even in the toughest of times, the side has been competitive to some degree.

However, the Swans have turned their fortunes around to the point that they have become the form team since Round 7, going 6-1 in that period.

They registered their first win for the season by defeating the Brisbane Lions by 54 points at the SCG, then followed it up with back-to-back wins over North Melbourne and St Kilda, both at Etihad Stadium, on either side of a six-day break.

Their momentum appeared to have been halted when they lost to Hawthorn by six points at home.

But, since the Round 11 bye, the Swans have again logged three wins in a row, against recent bogey side the Western Bulldogs at home, Richmond at the MCG and, last Friday night, Essendon at the SCG.

By contrast, the Adelaide Crows, which started the season 6-0, have dropped four of their past seven matches to drop to second on the ladder behind the GWS Giants (5-2 since Round 6) on the overall ladder.

If the Swans do, somehow, qualify for September, then they’ll become the first team in AFL history to do so after dropping their first six games of the season.

But they won’t become the first team to do it from an impossible position.

You may recall that Richmond were 16th and had a 3-10 record at this exact point of the season in 2014. In fact, they’d just lost to the Swans by 11 points (after leading by as much as 26 points in the second quarter), and their season appeared shot to pieces.

However, from seemingly out of nowhere, the Tigers would win their next eight matches in succession to enter the top eight for the first time in the season after defeating St Kilda by 26 points at the MCG in Round 22.

The Tigers’ resurgence would culminate in a ninth-straight win, a three-point win over the Swans at ANZ Stadium. The result would all but confirm their place in September.

As it turned out, the Swans’ defeat turned out to be meaningless because they could not be dislodged from top spot on the ladder, needing to be thrashed by an unlikely record margin to drop to second.

Eventually, the Tigers would run out of puff in September, having their season ended in humiliation when they lost to Port Adelaide by 57 points at the Adelaide Oval.

Unlike the Tigers three years ago, when every one of their matches after Round 14 became virtual elimination finals, the Swans are in a better position to break into September if they can continue their superb form.

While John Longmire’s men will fancy themselves against Melbourne at the MCG this Friday night, they’ll be aware of a side that has dramatically improved under current coach Simon Goodwin and his predecessor, Swans premiership coach Paul Roos, since the latter’s appointment in 2013.

After that, they get three straight games in Sydney, against the Gold Coast Suns, GWS Giants and St Kilda, with only the match against the Giants requiring them to travel (albeit across the road to Spotless Stadium).

If the Swans win all four of those matches, they’ll be 10-7 by the time they take on Hawthorn at the MCG in Round 19.

While the Swans haven’t beaten the Hawks at home since 2014, the stat that stands out is the fact that they haven’t lost to them at the MCG since the grand final that year, which they lost by 63 points.

And who knows what might happen from there.

So, could the Swans pull off what many thought impossible after Round 6 and force their way into September after such a poor start to the season?

If they can, then fears of the club’s demise may be exaggerated after all.