Come next Thursday all eyes will be back on the 2017 NRL Premiership. Barring major injuries, there are six sides that could possibly win the title: the Cowboys, Broncos, Rosters, Sea Eagles, Sharks and the Storm.
However, when you look at the stats it becomes clear that the current top three are the sides most likely.
When all the statistical categories are examined they average out the best.
Metres gained and conceded
Team |
Metres Gained |
Rank |
Metres conceded |
Rank |
=/- |
Sharks |
1506 |
2nd |
1365 |
5th |
+141 |
Cowboys |
1472 |
4th |
1333 |
3rd |
+139 |
Sea Eagles |
1374 |
13th |
1306 |
1st |
+68 |
Broncos |
1519 |
1st |
1464 |
14th |
+55 |
Storm |
1428 |
8th |
1393 |
7th |
+35 |
Roosters |
1452 |
5th |
1454 |
13th |
-2 |
NRL Avg |
1404 |
1404 |
As you can see, the Cowboys and the Sharks have the best metres gained to conceded aggregate. Those metres alone go a long way to winning a lot of games.
While the Sea Eagles have a +68 aggregate, they don’t make enough metres to be genuine contenders even though their defence is superb. The Broncos are great at gaining metres but very good at conceding them, which isn’t ideal. The Roosters also concede far too many metres.
There’s the Storm almost bang on average for metres gained and conceded. However, they are on the happy side of the average in both categories.
Attacking stats
Team |
Tries scored |
Rank |
Line Breaks |
Rank |
Tackle Breaks |
Rank |
Storm |
70 |
1st |
83 |
1st |
469 |
5th |
Sea Eagles |
65 |
2nd |
71 |
3rd |
398 |
10th |
Roosters |
60 |
5th |
66 |
5th |
419 |
7th |
Broncos |
58 |
7th |
61 |
8th |
502 |
3rd |
Sharks |
54 |
9th |
69 |
4th |
412 |
8th |
Cowboys |
54 |
9th |
59 |
9th |
482 |
4th |
NRL Avg |
55 |
61 |
422 |
These stats really start sorting out the sheep from the goats. In regards to effective attack the Storm are towering above the other contenders. Only the Sea Eagles are close to them in regards to tries scored but, as we’ve seen above, their metres gained are well below par and they are the worst of this bunch for tackle breaks.
The Roosters stats are ok. With a bit of improvement their attack could become quite deadly.
The Broncos, Sharks and Cowboys aren’t scoring enough tries. However, as we’ve seen time and again, if a side’s defence is good enough they can still grind out wins.
Defence
Team | Tries conceded | Rank | Line breaks conceded | Rank | Missed Tackles | Rank | Missed Tackle % | Penalties conceded | rank |
Sharks |
39 |
1st |
42 |
1st |
450 |
13th |
8.8% |
110 |
2nd |
Storm |
42 |
2nd |
43 |
2nd |
409 |
6th |
7.4% |
119 |
1st |
Sea Eagles |
46 |
3rd |
48 |
4th |
384 |
3rd |
8.6% |
107 |
3rd |
Cowboys |
49 |
5th |
68 |
12th |
447 |
12th |
9.3% |
92 |
11th |
Roosters |
50 |
6th |
63 |
9th |
421 |
8th |
7.6% |
93 |
10th |
Broncos |
51 |
7th |
55 |
7th |
481 |
15th |
9.1% |
81 |
14th |
NRL Avg |
55 |
61 |
422 |
96 |
As you can see, tries conceded is a huge factor in being successful. The six contenders are only interrupted by the Bulldogs ranked fourth best for tries conceded. However, the Storm, Sharks and the Sea Eagles are the best.
Why are these three so much better than the others? Firstly, their missed tackle percentages are better. However, the main reason is their penalties conceded.
They are the three most penalised sides in the NRL so far this season. When their line is threatened they conceded a penalty to give themselves more time to reset their defence.
At the beginning of the season referees boss Tony Archer said that the sin bin was going to be brought back in to deal with repeat offenders.
While there have been 28 sin binnings so far this season – 11 more already than for all of 2016 – only one (Clay Priest, Raiders, Round 1) has been for repeated infringements. The rest have all been for punching or professional fouls.
Basically, the Sea Eagles, Storm and Sharks called Archer’s bluff. They knew his refs didn’t feel even vaguely supported enough by their hierarchy to do something as controversial as sin bin for repeated offences.
That those three sides concede the least tries is no coincidence. And the NRL hierarchy know it and allow it.
Why? Who the hell knows! But sides are being allowed to cheat and their reward is a spot in the top four.
It once more raises the curious case of James Maloney. In 14 games so far this season Maloney has already conceded 24 penalties. At this rate he will break 40 penalties for the season. He has not been out of the top three most penalised players for the past five years. However, he has not been sin binned once.
Does that make the referees stupid or gutless? Or both?
Whatever… Jimmy Maloney is laughing! And the message is clear: do what it takes to hold your line. Lie on the player, go the third man flop, pull a leg, put hands on the ball, rake the ball out, pick a fight. You might be penalised but you are almost certain not to be sin binned – and you probably won’t let in a try!
Repeat sets
Team |
Drop outs taken |
Rank |
Drop outs forced |
Rank |
Dropout aggregate +/- |
Errors |
Rank |
Sea Eagles |
29 |
12th |
35 |
2nd |
+6 |
139 |
1st |
Cowboys |
24 |
7th |
36 |
1st |
+12 |
157 |
7th |
Broncos |
27 |
10th |
29 |
5th |
+2 |
151 |
4th |
Storm |
25 |
8th |
22 |
11th |
-3 |
174 |
13th |
Sharks |
17 |
3rd |
30 |
4th |
+13 |
190 |
16th |
Roosters |
20 |
5th |
24 |
9th |
+4 |
182 |
15th |
NRL Avg |
25 |
25 |
162 |
The side that best controls the ball most often wins. Further, a side that can force repeat sets on top of that is in a great position. Given those concepts it is easy to see why the Sea Eagles are ensconced in the top three. However, that the Storm and Sharks are well down the list for these stats indicate that they may not be as vital as all that.
Playmakers
A side that has the most effective and settled combinations has a huge advantage over other sides. Which of the top six is best off?
Play maker 1 | Play maker 2 | Play maker 3 | Play maker 4 | Total | |
Storm | Billy Slater Line break assists – 11 Try assists – 12 |
Cooper Cronk Line break assists – 7 Try assists – 11 |
Cameron Munster Line break assists – 13 Try assists – 8 |
Cameron Smith Line break assists – 6 Try assists – 5 |
Line break assists – 37 Try assists – 36 |
Sea Eagles | Daly Cherry Evans Line break assists – 11 Try assists – 13 |
Tom Trbojevic Line break assists – 7 Try assists – 7 |
Dylan Walker Line break assists – 6 Try assists – 7 |
Blake Green Line break assists – 5 Try assists – 5 |
Line break assists – 29 Try assists – 32 |
Roosters | Luke Keary Line break assists – 11 Try assists – 13 |
Mitchell Pearce Line break assists – 7 Try assists – 10 |
Latrell Mitchell Line break assists – 5 Try assists – 5 |
Michael Gordon Line break assists – 4 Try assists – 3 |
Line break assists – 27 Try assists – 31 |
Broncos | Anthony Milford Line break assists – 7 Try assists – 10 |
Darius Boyd Line break assists – 8 Try assists – 7 |
Ben Hunt Line break assists – 5 Try assists – 6 |
Benji Marshall Line break assists – 4 Try assists – 2 |
Line break assists – 24 Try assists – 25 |
Cowboys | Michael Morgan Line break assists – 4 Try assists – 10 |
John Asiata Line break assists – 2 Try assists – 5 |
Jake Granville Line break assists – 2 Try assists – 4 |
Lachlan Coote Line break assists – 6 Try assists – 3 |
Line break assists – 14 Try assists – 22 |
Sharks | Ricky Leutele Line break assists – 5 Try assists – 5 |
Chad Townsend Line break assists – 4 Try assists – 5 |
Valentine Holmes Line break assists – 5 Try assists – 4 |
James Maloney Line break assists – 5 Try assists – 4 |
Line break assists – 19 Try assists – 18 |
When it comes to settled and effective combinations the Storm are way out in front.
Surprisingly Slater is their lead creator so far this year, just in front of Cronk.
The Sea Eagles combination of Daly Cherry-Evans and Turbo Tom Trbojevic is working out very well, and is supported ably by Walker and Green.
Luke Keary and Mitchell Pearce have quickly formed a good combination and operate well behind a strong pack.
The Broncos are suffering from issues with form and injury, but there is lots of quality in their playmakers.
The Cowboys are adjusting quickly to life without Johnathan Thurston, with Michael Morgan taking the reins. However, they are some huge shoes to fill.
Then we come to the Sharks playmakers. Who knew Ricky Leutele was their most effective ballplayer so far this season. There is plenty of room for improvement here.
Results against top eight sides
Beating bottom eight sides can be like chasing Uder from the Simpsons: easy. The form of flat track bullies isn’t really relevant to the pointy end of the season. The real test comes when you have to play the other top sides.
Team |
Played vs top 8 |
Won |
Lost |
Storm |
8/16 |
6 |
2 |
Sharks |
9/16 |
5 |
4 |
Roosters |
7/16 |
4 |
3 |
Sea Eagles |
7/15 |
3 |
4 |
Broncos |
7/16 |
3 |
4 |
Cowboys |
7/16 |
2 |
5 |
This table shows that the Storm know how to win the big games. Their loss to the Roosters was without many of their stars. Their loss to the Sharks in Round 6 was a tough one and they were missing Munster and Jesse Bromwich.
The verdict
If you average out each sides overall rank for each of these categories it looks like this:
Average rank |
|
Storm |
2.33 |
Sea Eagles |
2.5 |
Sharks |
3.33 |
Cowboys |
4.1 |
Roosters |
4.33 |
Broncos |
4.33 |
So the top three are justified in their spots, with the Storm the stand out among them.
Given this, the good money must be on the Storm being the first losing grand finalist to win the following year since the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles prevailed in 2008 – over the Storm.
And there’s a good chance it will be against the Sharks.
Roger Ramjet
Guest
100% right I remember back in 2001 when Parramatta broke all types of records in attack and defence - down 24 to nil at half time against the Knights those stats were meaningless- beaten by a better team on the day and not stats wise - on the day is when it counts
bearfax
Guest
Excellent point there Lidcombe Oval. The outcome of games is often the result of a single event, a field goal, a clever play by your main playmaker, a poor defensive effort by one of your players. So many games are lost by less than a converted try these days. Sometimes a team wins most of these and ends up at the top of the comp. Other times a team loses those close fixtures and becomes an also ran. But was one team that much better than the other or did Lady Luck play a part. That doesnt mean all teams are as good as each other. It just means the difference is not that great, and its often having that one player of genius who consistently makes the right play to win the game
Lidcombe Oval
Guest
Don't see how much can be read into stats when games are won and lost on the day- a team could be number 1 in all types of attack and defence stats and have a bad day /suffer injuries and lose to a lessor team based on such stats or a team playing above themselves (red letter day) on the day. It's meaningless- like saying x team is better than y team on paper- the game isn't played on paper though.
Griffo
Guest
Could this be due in part to origin disruption preventing the strongest team from finishing on top?
The Barry
Roar Guru
Tumbleweeds...
bearfax
Guest
I agree that it would be a big call for Manly to win. But H.Y. you're using double standards here. What other team hasnt leaked points badly at certain times this season at certain times. And saying Manly won against North Queensland because NQ were off the boil, denies Manly the credit that they outplayed them with Thurston on the field in NQ, something few sides have done in recent years. They probably would have beaten any side that day. Using the same argument you could say the Storm met a Manly side off the boil, when they ran roughshod in the first half, then almost lost the game when Manly came back at them. The Storm led 30-12 just before half time in their game before Manly came back to lose 30-26, and almost pipped the opposition with a final minutes that almost won Manly the game. What of Manly's defeat of the Roosters, their thrashing of the Sharks both away. The same Sharks side that they beat 35-18, then thrashed the Roosters 44-12 the following week. Did Manly win because the opposition werent playing well. No doubt SOO will come up as an excuse. Every team has on games and off games. Qualifying that a team won because the opposition were off the boil to exemplify a belief that the winners have somehow been fortunate is selective interpretation. If they win, they are good enough full stop.
Wild Eagle
Guest
Manly flogged the Sharks at home and put at least 16 easy points on the Storm at Brookie so I don't think letting the Warriors put 16 easy points on them proves much either way H.Y . Anything The Eagles can win in the semis would be a great bonus this year but I'm not ruling out the chance of a shock title. Our 40 nil drubbing of the Storm convinced me not to rule anything out.
Big mick
Guest
If the GF played at Suncorp Stadium Storm on a fast dry surface could easily put 40 on whomever they play. If Suncorp was the venue for the big dance I would rate the Storm a $1.60 chance this far out..... A wet slippery ANZ will level the playing field and gives the Sharks some chance. Ergo I wouldn't be rushing into the price currently on offer the storm. (Refer Storm v Sharks earlier this year at Aami in the wet) So in my opinion its more the playing surface/conditions not the opposition that's the issue for Melbourne.
thomas c
Guest
Cowboys and Broncs have had some issues with injuries in key positions. I think the storm could lose a player or two and mostly continue to make sense and be well-oiled, but a lot of teams (especially creative teams) are maybe an injury from losing a star player or a star combination and falling off a cliff.
Kenw
Guest
It can happen to anyone Joe, and it frequently does. There's no argument against Tim's stats, no argument against the conclusion of those Top 3 being the best looking right now.... but solid premiership predictions a week out from Origin 3 (i.e. mostly based on the last 2 months of club mess that Origin creates) are fraught. The only bet I would make is that we'll have some twists before the finals get here, and then who knows what will happen when they do... Great read though Tim, really enjoyed the analysis.
Tim Gore
Expert
Fair.
Tim Gore
Expert
One of the issues Jimmmy is that no one really keeps those stats. It's one of the reasons it can be ignored.
Tim Gore
Expert
Agreed on all points
Tim Gore
Expert
Roosters could definitely challenge...
Tim Gore
Expert
Dizzying heights...
Alex L
Roar Rookie
I'd be interested in seeing a median rather than a total or a mean when it comes to a lot of these numbers; I suspect, cynic that I am, that some of the blowouts against poorly performing sides (which will be meaningless come finals time) have rather skewed some of the numbers.
The Spectator
Guest
Mm m, m mm!
Wild Eagle
Guest
Plenty of things can derail the Storm as history proves. Clear favorites now but the title is still open I reckon.
Sean
Guest
No one will beat the Storm. Theyl defence has always been good. But thete attack this year is amazing. Theyl go all the way and win comfortably.
The Barry
Roar Guru
In the positives, they're showing a bit of heart without JT and Morgan has stepped up. He'd have a fair bit of confidence after his last couple of club games and Origin 2. The pen is hovering to put a line through them but not quite ready yet on what they're showing. It's still a pretty good lineup with Morgan, Coote, Granville, TMM, JT13, Hess, Cooper, Lowe, Bolton on the park.