Super Rugby tipping: The final

And then there were two. The best teams throughout the season will meet the first time for the season, and with the ultimate prize at stake.

The Lions will be looking to claim their maiden Super Rugby title, while the Crusaders have seven cups in the cabinet looking for an eighth mate.

Ellis Park in Johannesburg will be heaving, and I know I can’t wait to hear the atmosphere coming through my TV onto my couch. I know it happened again only in June, but a little bit of me hopes we get the famous South African Airways jumbo with a message on the underbelly on the flyover again.

My humble thanks to my three esteemed colleagues for their enthusiastic input every week, and for making the panel the great weekend preview that has been every week this season. I couldn’t have done it without them each week. Or at least, not three-quarters of it.

Last round (Qualifying Finals): Harry and Brett 2; Nobes and The Crowd 1; Digger 0

Harry
“Brett, thanks for giving us this opportunity. It’s added a lot to Super Rugby for me, and just like in the competition itself, the best two tipsters are locked in an even Mano y Mano for the gold.

“Yes, 4pm Jozi time. Expect a hard, dry, fast track and 80 points on offer.

“The Lions are a classic circa-2000 South African side: a clever and religious coach, pacy forwards with high work ethics, a front row with wheels, legitimate track speed on the wings, four big boots on the park at all time, often guilty of larceny at lineout, and relentlessly point-amassing.

“Up against them is a counter-punching set-piece, watertight defensive cordon with experience and resilience. The Crusaders don’t run or pass as mix as their hosts, but they offload in the trams on the break with confidence, and will probably thieve a couple of the otherwise excellent Malcolm Marx’s loopy throws.

“I’ll tip the Lions to send their beloved mentor and counsellor Johan Ackerman to Gloucester as a winner; the technical reason is the ravenous turnover creation of Jaco Kriel, Marx, “Sauce” Mostert, Kwagga Smith, and Ruan Ackerman will provide their deadly finishers more chances than the solid set piece pack of the visitors, who will start to labour in the last quarter.”

Brett
OK then, one last week to catch these blokes… and no, this is not the time and the place for your so-called ‘mathematical proof’ that it can’t be done.

I’ve been thinking for the last few months that if the Lions could secure a run of home finals, they’ll take a fair bit of beating, and nothing has changed my mind yet. I still think they’ll take some beating and I’m sticking with them again this week.

I said last week that the Lions wouldn’t play two ordinary finals in a row, and though they did their best to prove me wrong for 35 minutes last week against the Hurricanes, they proved their class in running at a point-a-minute to get back into the game, take the lead, and win. All against the best defence in Super Rugby this season.

The Crusaders’ defence will be another challenge, of course, but I just think the Lions have all the momentum now. By breakfast Sunday morning, the kings of the jungle will have conquered southern hemisphere rugby, too.

Nobes
“Grand finale here we go. First, I would like to thank Brett and the three other competitors that did a hell of a job week in and week out bringing in their predictions and insights. It was a joy and also a crash course in Super Rugby in order to be part of this panel and I am already concern on what I am going to do next week without this. But first things first.

“I have to say that the second half of the Lions last week has to be one of the most amazing come backs I have seen. It gets even better because of the quality of the opponent. These Lions were as hungry as ever seen a team before and every one of the players was so focus an alert that left nothing for the Hurricanes to come back for.

“The other semi-final was also of great quality, defence was the key factor for the Crusaders to win. The Chiefs tried with every weapon they have to overcome that defence but at the end of the day they realised it was not going to be possible to get a positive result that day.

“The Crusaders will definitely regret a bonus point left here and there that makes them take a plane all the way to South Africa to play a team like the Lions in the altitude. To win in that venue against a Lions team that have showed so much hunger it is a very difficult task and will require an effort that so late in the season make you wonder.

“I wonder how many Crusaders players played against the other Lions last month and their playing time has not reached the limit. However, Crusaders is a team with lots of history and that has been in this situation more times than the Lions and that experience counts a lot in finals.

“My tip is a flip of the coin, but I want to make things interesting and I know my fellow competitor Harry, with whom I share the lead, cannot tip against a team from South Africa. Against the odds I will go with the Crusaders and thus our Super Rugby competition will have a winner on the field and also a winner in our tipping contest in such emotional edition in Super Rugby history.”

Digger
“The Lions have everything in their favour, home ground, sell out and of course their second half performance in last week’s semi-final was some outstanding rugby. Their unique blend of straight running and speed is a nightmare for any team once they gain the initiative and when you factor in the motivational aspect with so many changes afoot, they seem odds on to take the lollies.

“But I am a Kiwi after all and will plump for the Crusaders to prevail, I suspect their proven defensive organisation and arguably tougher run to the final stands them in good stead along with a very experienced and quality pack, though in the end, I am not particularly confident of them winning at the same time.”

Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday evening.

The Sure Thing

The one thing we’re all absolutely certain will happen over the course of this weekend. Well, pretty certain…

Digger
“Elton Jantjies will either do something really brilliant or really bad, perhaps both. Ruan Combrinck and Ryan Crotty will be really good.”

Nobes
“There will be complaints about the ref and the TMO.”

Brett’s note: There already has been!

Brett
It’s a cliché, but the sure thing is that the final will be an absolute cracker. Seriously, if you’re umming and ah-ing about watching this game, just stop and make a date. You won’t regret watching it, but you will regret not watching it.

BONUS: The Player of the Final

Simple question to wrap up the season: who will be the standout player in the Big Dance?

Digger
“I have plumped for the Crusaders so I will nominate Ryan Crotty will be the man for the Crusade on Saturday. His composure and defence under pressure will prove to be a major point of difference for the Crusaders if they are to survive this cauldron and he will get the Vodacom player of the day surprise thingy.”

Brett
Kwagga Smith for me. His name looks like it rhymes with the NSW regional city, but Matthew Pearce on Supersport makes it sounds like the cute little marsupials that reside on Rottnest Island off the coast of Perth.

However you say it, he is a gun. It’d be a cracking footrace between Smith and Michael Hooper, but Smith wins the breakdown contest hands down (but supporting his own weight, obviously). An absolute animal over the ball, and with a ridiculously good support game. He’ll score at least one try, and it will make up for him being robbed last week, too!

Nobes
Ruan Combrinck

Harry
“The Player of the Final will be Jaco Kriel, who had to step in as skipper, and played every minute as if his life was on the line.”

Got a different MotM prediction for the Final? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend…