The Crows may be favourites, but can they perform when it matters?

By Avatar / Roar Guru

With three rounds remaining before the finals get underway, there is absolutely no doubting as to who the premiership favourites are.

Stung by their draw against Collingwood last week, which came after they had trailed by 51 points early in the third quarter, the Adelaide Crows unleashed on cross-town rivals Port Adelaide last night to score a Showdown-record 84-point win to all but lock up their first top two finish since 2012.

What had shaped as the biggest Showdown in recent history became a fizzer as the Crows kicked 13 goals to six after half-time to flex their premiership muscle, giving their large legion of fans optimism that they can add to the pair of premierships they won back in 1997 and 1998.

Only a consolation goal from Port’s Charlie Dixon on the final siren prevented the Crows from achieving an even bigger victory, however by that point they had already eclipsed the previous biggest winning margin in a Showdown.

That was when they won by 83 points in what was dubbed the ‘Ultimate Showdown’ during the 2005 finals series.

The Crows have now won the past five Showdowns, something they had never achieved before, and have reclaimed the lead in the head-to-head (they now lead 22-21) for the first time since 2000.

The win also took them to a 14-1-4 record for the season with matches against Essendon, the Sydney Swans and West Coast Eagles still to come in the final three rounds.

It is possible that the Crows could lock up top spot with two rounds still to play, with the GWS Giants and Richmond both six points behind the Crows in equal second place on the ladder and facing tricky away matches against the Western Bulldogs and Geelong Cats respectively.

The result of both matches will be known by the time the Crows step out onto Etihad Stadium to face the Bombers this Saturday night.

If both the Giants and Tigers drop their Round 21 matches, then the equation will be simple for the Crows: win and they will secure just their second minor premiership and first since 2005.

It would be the earliest any side has secured the minor premiership since the Geelong Cats did so with three games still to play after Round 19 in 2007.

But while the Crows did thrash the Bombers by 65 points back in Round 4, facing them at Etihad Stadium will be a different prospect altogether and they will be keen to claim another major scalp before September.

The Bombers have proven their worth against the best sides this year, defeating the Geelong Cats and Port Adelaide quite convincingly at home and giving Richmond and the GWS Giants a run for their money, losing by 15 and 16 points respectively.

They also should’ve beaten the Sydney Swans in Round 14 but coughed up a 19-point lead with five minutes to go to lose by a solitary point, while they also faded late against the Western Bulldogs in round 19.

Even if the Crows do win their final three matches, they still won’t be able to better the 17 wins they racked up in both the 2005 and 2012 home-and-away seasons.

However, assuming they don’t lose another match before the finals get underway, their four losses so far will be the fewest in a regular season.

While it is looking increasingly likely that the Crows will be the team that mounts the premiership dais in 55 days’ time, questions will still continue to be asked as to whether they can actually perform in September.

They finished last season in disastrous fashion when they lost their final round clash against the West Coast Eagles at home, when a win would’ve seen them finish in the top two with a double chance.

After winning their elimination final clash against North Melbourne by 62 points, they then departed in meek fashion when they lost to the Sydney Swans by 36 points in the semi-final at the SCG.

Interestingly, the Crows face rematches against both the Swans and Eagles in the run to September, with both matches shaping as potentially tricky match-ups for the club for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, in addition to the Swans having ended the Crows’ premiership hopes last September, they have emerged as the form side of the competition since Round 6, winning more games than any other side in this period with their only two losses – both coming against Hawthorn, both by six points.

The Swans have also won five of their last six against the Crows, with the only blot being in Round 4 last year when Eddie Betts kicked a goal in the final 30 seconds to give the Crows a 10-point win.

Don Pyke’s men will also be wary of a West Coast side that is still fighting to keep its finals hopes alive, as well as the fact that it could be the final ever match played at Subiaco Oval before matches are played at the new Perth Stadium from the 2018 season onwards.

They’ll also have last year’s aforementioned final round loss at the top of their minds when they head west for the only time this season, though the Crows should have the minor premiership officially in their keeping by then.

But another loss to the Eagles, who may need to win that match to qualify for the finals, could cast some doubt to the club’s title aspirations, their fans having endured so much frustration over their side’s ongoing inability to perform under the heat of finals football.

In 2012, under first-year coach Brenton Sanderson, the club exceeded all before them to reach a preliminary final, where it lost to Hawthorn by just five points.

However, the club would crumble under the weight of pre-season expectations and miss the finals in the following two years, costing Sanderson his job as the club set out to eliminate mediocrity.

The years 2005 and 2006 are also those that come to mind.

In 2005, under Neil Craig, the Crows rose from 12th to claim the minor premiership by beating the Eagles at Subiaco Oval in the final round, but would then drop their qualifying final match against St Kilda by eight points.

While they would recover to thrash Port Adelaide by a then-record 83-points (eclipsed of course by last night’s 84-point romp in Showdown XLIII) in the semi-final, the Eagles would then deny them in the preliminary final.

Twelve months later, the Crows fared somewhat better, winning its qualifying final against Fremantle to progress directly to a home preliminary final, but again it was the Eagles that would stop them a game short of the decider.

(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)

After Nathan Bock had kicked a goal to draw the Crows to within four points in the dying seconds, ex-Crow Tyson Stenglein (then playing for the Eagles) would receive a free kick following an infringement in the centre clearance.

Any chance the Crows had of reaching the Grand Final died with it.

To this day, it ranks as one of the most devastating losses in the club’s history, given it had dominated for the majority of the match and had a strong home crowd behind them as it sought to make the most of the period during which their premiership window was wide open.

It will now remain to be seen whether the present-day Crows can not only make the most of their opportunities this year, but also learn from the lessons of past finals failures, of which some continue to haunt the club to this day.

A premiership win will go down as the ultimate reward for the club’s loyal fans who have stuck with them throughout the toughest of times, not just through the well-documented finals failures but also the period following the shocking death of Phil Walsh midway through the 2015 season.

Walsh had mapped out a long-term plan to establish sustained success at the club, and it seems the players are carrying his legacy forward as they seek to “get the job done” by claiming the club’s third flag.

Because that’s what he would have wanted.

The Crowd Says:

2017-08-09T10:33:41+00:00

Col in paradise

Guest


That's what I think - HQ will have a little mumble behind the scenes - Doggies last year tigers this year !!! Got the threepeat for the Hawks to rub the lions out as a distant memory !!! . The AFL is VIC central !!!!!

2017-08-09T01:34:35+00:00

GJ

Guest


There is no doubt his life is a mess. Doesn't alter the fact that when he was younger he planned his binges and was disciplined enough to conceal his drug abuse. When was younger he also justified his drug use by training harder. There was considerable discipline involved to achieve this. You make the assumption that the choice for Ben was taking and not taking drugs. Ben admits he loves taking drugs and even now has no intention of stopping. His life has largely fallen to pieces since the structure of a professional sporting environment is no longer a part of his life. Addiction is assiduous. Drugs are ruining sections of our communities. There needs to be more education, compassion and support for addicts and their families.

2017-08-09T00:39:34+00:00

Bearfly

Roar Rookie


I agree with you re Sauce being a huge key for them. And I would even go as far as to suggest that if they wrap up the top 2 spot this week they should put him in cotton wool for the final 2 games and give O'Brien a run, because losing Sauce to injury on the eve of finals would be an absolute disaster for Adelaide - they couldn't get through finals relying on Jenkins and Lynch in ruck, and O'Brien does not have the experience to lead the ruck in the cauldron of finals footy - Sauce is the most important key for Adelaide's finals hopes

2017-08-08T23:12:02+00:00

Slane

Guest


Ben Cousins is so disciplined that he has managed to balls up his entire life. He has no willpower whatsoever. Wake up GJ.

2017-08-08T22:43:21+00:00

Pedro The Fisherman

Roar Rookie


GWS are definitely a chance if (as expected) they can get a few players back from injury. Sydney maybe but I am yet to be convinced. Geelong - I consider them to be overrated and I think most clubs will be happy to play them away from SS! Adelaide seem composed and have played well for most of the year (but they are happy for the Melbourne media to let them continue to fly under the radar).

2017-08-08T11:47:49+00:00

Ditto

Guest


The keys for Adelaide are Sam Jacobs and Brad Crouch. Last year Jacobs looked cooked and our midfield was dragged further down by the presence of Scott Thompson. This year Sauce is looking strong and I'm getting more confident that B.Crouch will more than hold his own come finals.

2017-08-08T10:58:49+00:00

Mark

Guest


Came to their peaks at different times so head to head comparisons are useless.

2017-08-08T05:57:52+00:00

Slane

Guest


Richmond winning a flag would be worth insane amounts of money to the AFL.

2017-08-08T05:44:37+00:00

Mark Butters

Roar Rookie


Last Tuesday I would have said the Bombers would be primed to take down the Crows. This Tuesday the reality is Fantasia is out for several weeks and their most prolific ball winner will miss. Will require a Saints/Geelong/Port Adelaide type performance without two of this seasons best players in red and black. I'm not convinced anyone is a lock for the grand final. Crows finish top 2 and look likely. GWS has talent to burn and also look most likely. Geelong are shot. Richmond are yet to convince me. The best of the rest might be Sydney and the Dogs. Put a line through the rest.

2017-08-08T05:40:13+00:00

Mark Butters

Roar Rookie


Agreed the Swans lost their way through bad kicking but the Bombers were huge to get out to a 19 point lead. For the bombers to cough up three goals in four and a half minutes I'd suggest required some luck on behalf of their opposition.

2017-08-08T05:35:00+00:00

sammy

Guest


What I have liked is that when the crows have their full on ball brigade in action, sloane, the crouches and Greenwood, they are 4 strong bodied midfielders who can play it really hard. What people are won't to forget in the final against Sydney last year was that the crows lost talia and lever in the first half and after closing within 3 goals late in the third, ran out of gas. As long as the list stays healthy going into finals, they can match it on the inside and have the firepower on the outside and across half back to do very well. Also, if september is wet, the crows will walk the flag IMO

2017-08-08T05:30:09+00:00

Matt

Guest


Do you mean if the Umpires are brought into help the Tigers they can win... WB got help from the BOG the umpires in the prelim and final.. They are a 6-7th best team at best.. A fairy tale for the tigers could await but can the umpires give the same amount of help two years running.. Lets find out..

2017-08-08T05:07:10+00:00

AD

Guest


There will always be a question mark over the Crows finals credentials until they actually win the flag, especially after the nature of their finals exits in the 2015/16 (and possibly even back to the prelim in 2012). However, I think one telling difference between those years and 2017 is the Crows record against other top 8 sides. In previous years it was pretty average at best - the Crows would beat up on the low-to-mid ladder teams, but struggle to win more than 1 or 2 against other top 8 sides during the year. This year they've beaten every other team currently in the 8 except Sydney who they haven't played yet (although it must be said that all of those wins were at home), and only lost once (Geelong in Geelong). A 7-1 record suggests they are more than capable of mixing it with any team in the comp. While I don't think any one team can be regarded as outright favourite in a season as tight and unpredictable as this one, they're certainly as good a chance as anybody.

2017-08-08T04:29:25+00:00

Wilson

Roar Rookie


This. Has 2016 taught us nothing? This year is more even again. If the Tigs get a string of finals at the MCG...

2017-08-08T04:29:18+00:00

Wilson

Roar Rookie


This. Has 2016 taught us nothing? This year is more even again. If the Tigs get a string of finals at the MCG...

2017-08-08T03:38:19+00:00

Matt

Guest


I can not see Adelaide winning this year.. They are overall a good team but I just think when the game is up for grabs Geelong, Sydney and GWS all have more stars to take the game away.. Adelaide are currently the best balanced team in the competition but for the top team I think they have fewer stars.. If they still had Dangerfield they would be a walk up favourite..

2017-08-08T03:36:48+00:00

dan ced

Guest


Yeah I think they are trying to peak at the exact right time, hopefully it works. I'm liking the ferocity, Collingwood game was puzzling however.

2017-08-08T03:35:52+00:00

Matt

Guest


Judd, Cousins, Kerr and Cox used to smash the Brisbane lions Voss, Black, Lappin or even Aker.. The WCE midfield obliterated the Brisbane lions in their prime days but never were actually good enough to face them in finals.. That midfield won a premiership with Quentin Lynch and Ashley as forwards.. There has never been a better midfield period..

2017-08-08T03:31:36+00:00

Craig Delaney

Guest


No one is favourite yet. Every game is up for grabs from here on in.

2017-08-08T03:11:53+00:00

Danny

Guest


Cousins Judd and Kerr plus Cox ripped us apart I have never seen a better trio in the middle...maybe Voss Black Lappin were close 2005 was for me the biggest opportunity missed when we lost to St Kilda...the Roo being rubbed out the week before was very costly

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