The inconsistency that has plagued Essendon all season will take centre stage in the final three rounds, with two wins possibly giving the Bombers their first chance to see September since going down to North Melbourne by two goals in the 2014 elimination final.
The Bombers face a red-hot Adelaide in Melbourne, the Suns bereft of any form, and a Dockers side with nothing to play for.
The largest question is which Essendon side will turn up? At their best, the Bombers are capable of beating the finest, and at their worst their ability to beat the teams on the bottom of the ladder is anyone’s guess.
Much of Essendon’s inconsistency can be placed in the hands of their key forwards, with the finishing skills of Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker an ongoing source of frustration.
Daniher is currently scoring at 57 per cent having slotted 56 goals, 33 behinds in 2017, while Hooker scores at a similar 55 per cent converting 35 goals, 24 behinds this season.
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Daniher has had a breakout year, while Hooker continues to polarise with his inconsistency up forward. Hooker’s ability to take a strong mark is undeniable but his goal kicking is an entirely different proposition. His lack of conversion against the Bulldogs in Round 19 was a major hurdle to a Bomber victory and his lack of accuracy almost single-handedly cost his side victory against a plucky Carlton in Round 20.
The Dons’ conversion rate over the past two weeks (24 goals, 37 behinds) needs improvement and the team’s success will hinge on whether it’s forthcoming.
John Worsfold’s task, toppling the ladder-leading Crows this week, has been dealt two huge blows. Orazio Fantasia is set to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury, while Zach Merrett’s brain fade against the Blues sees him miss a week for striking.
After four years of turmoil, the Bombers faithful are tired of surprises, with members yearning for consistent results and a return to September success.
If Essendon bring some consistency to the next three weeks of football, their finals hiatus could be over.
Wilson
Roar Rookie
They drew with Collingwood, played Melbourne at TIO and Port Adelaide share the same ground as them... so that leaves away wins against Carlton, Brisbane, Gold Coast and a horrifically out of form Hawthorn. Thanks for proving my point sammy.
truetigerfan
Guest
Ever been cheated on? Outstanding analogy me thinks!
Lamby
Roar Rookie
And when they are not at their best they lose to the bottom team :-)
sammy
Guest
go and put $1000 on Essendon to win if you are so sure. The crows have not won any away games, except Hawthorn, Melbourne, Port, Carlton, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Collingwood. From memory they also beat Essendon by 11 goals earlier this year and now you are without 2 of your key players...good luck.
Birdman
Guest
you could say that about 10 other teams Zac.
Zac Standish
Roar Guru
The Bombers at there best are among the best teams in the comp, just got to sort out their consistency and they will 100% be a September threat
Birdman
Guest
"I'm content with my career. I suppose people ask ... it's like you're in a relationship, a partner cheats on you, you might get back together but you don't love them the same way." unfortunate analogy by Jobe IMHO
Birdman
Guest
Jobe retiring - just waiting for the OOT bouquets from Slobbo in the Hun
Pope Paul VII
Guest
He consistently overestimates his awesomeness.
Aransan
Guest
Certainly some indiscipline from Bellchambers last two weeks, 50m penalty for a silly act last week and a free to Roughead in front of goal the previous week. He has an advantage in aggression over Leuenberger but he seems to have trouble in crossing the line. How has Leuenberger been going in the VFL? They had a bye last week. It is worth noting that Kreuzer is one of the top ruckmen in the competition.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
The key is not to lose by too much against Adelaide (if they can't win - and they still might). If they have a game like they did in Adelaide then their percentage will drop them below WC and the Demons and out of the 8.
Mark Butters
Roar Rookie
Great question. Kelly and McGrath come back in for Ambrose and Howlett (probably) but that doesn't give us a small forward or midfielder. Does Begley come in? Bellchambers was smacked last week. Is Matthew L due for a return? Watson was dreadful unfortunately but might be saved by Merrett's suspension. Langford might be the answer up forward for Fantasia. Keep Howlett for Merrett.
Jutsie
Guest
I think howlett will be out along with merrett and fantasia and kelly, mcgrath and one of the three you mentioned in. I hope its begley
Mattyb
Guest
As others have said consistency isn't an issue with only Essendon. For me Essendon are clearly the best of the up and coming sides when at their best. They easily have the best top end talent and the depth through their list seems very good. Daniher has the potential to be a superstar of the game and could even be the best Daniher the game has seen,that's a pretty big statement but so is the talent he possesses. Fantasia has been excellent,I also can see him as a superstar of the league.
Aransan
Guest
Consistency has been a problem for many clubs this season. Essendon have had a very stable team for some time now but there is no small forward available to replace Fantasia. Begley, Laverde and Langford are possible inclusions after the loss of Merrett as well. Kelly and McGrath are both due back after being rested -- who will miss out?
Aransan
Guest
More droppings from Birdman. If you bother to look at Gatlin's record it is not as bad as people believe, his first strike was due to medication. Sheer class from Bolt in the way he dealt with his defeat.
Wilson
Roar Rookie
Dons should beat the Crows and keep their finals hopes alive. Crows still haven't beaten anyone (or really played anyone) away from home. It's the awkward 'Gold Coast away' type of game that'll kill them.
Birdman
Guest
Maybe Justin Gatlin can suit up for the Dons?
TomC
Roar Guru
It looks like all the clubs around the middle of the ladder are struggling for consistency. We as supporters see a disparity in results as examples of inconsistency, but it's probably more that the league really is just so even that fine differences in form create big differences in outcomes.
Jutsie
Guest
Fantasia is a big loss. I feel like our success this year has had a strong link to how effective him and tippa (and a lesser extent green) are both in the forward line and pinch hitting in the midfield. A common theme in our poor performances this year has been the three smalls having minimal impact on the game. Im not sure how we replace him for the next 5 or so weeks. Begley has been close to selection for a few weeks but not sure if he is a like for like replacement.