A sell-out crowd of more than 50,000 is expected to pack into the Adelaide Oval this Friday night to watch the two form sides of the competition, the Adelaide Crows and Sydney Swans, duke it out in what shapes as a potential grand final preview.
Rarely do two non-Victorian teams get scheduled on a Friday night during the premiership season, but that’s exactly what the case will be when the Crows and Swans lock horns for the first time since last year’s semi-final.
In that match at the SCG, the Swans taught the Crows a brutal lesson about finals football, winning by 36 points on the back of a strong performance by their midfielders.
Not only did it add to the Crows’ pain of recent finals failures, it proved they still had a long way to go if they were to challenge for a third flag and first since 1998.
But the Crows have surely used last year’s finals capitulation as motivation to go further in 2017, having spent the entire season in either first or second place, and kicking at least 100 points in 16 of their 20 matches.
Their attack is deadly to the point they have kicked over 300 points and 45 goals more than the next best team, the Geelong Cats.
That said, on each of the four times the Crows failed to crack the ton, they lost (to North Melbourne, Melbourne, the Geelong Cats and Hawthorn).
This Friday night, Don Pyke’s men come up against the best defensive side in the competition, the Swans having conceded 38 points fewer than the next best side, Richmond. What’s more, Sydney’s percentage of 123.7 per cent is second to the Crows’ 142.1 per cent.
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The Crows may also have to face the Swans without their two most influential leaders, Taylor Walker and Rory Sloane, after both players picked up injuries in the 43-point win over Essendon last week. Losing Walker or Sloane would come as a huge blow against a side that has gathered steam in recent months, winning 12 of their last 14 matches after starting the season with six straight losses.
That poor start led many to believe that Sydney’s time at the top was coming to an end. However, aided by the return of several key players, the Swans have risen from bottom of the ladder to fifth, with a chance to climb into the top four by the end of Round 23.
They were barely made to sweat against a dismal Fremantle side at the SCG last Saturday afternoon, winning by 104 points, Lance Franklin kicking all four of his goals before halftime.
What’s more, they did it without captain Josh Kennedy, who also missed the just-as-impressive win over Geelong at Simonds Stadium in Round 20, but is expected back this week.
While the Crows can all but wrap up the minor premiership with a victory, they will have to overcome somewthing of a hoodoo to do so.
Adealaide have lost five of their last six matches against the Swans, their only win in that period coming in Round 4 last year, when Eddie Betts kicked the match-winning goal with 30 seconds remaining.
Betts’ record against the Swans since switching from Carlton at the end of 2013 is also surprisingly poor, kicking just seven goals –
with six of them coming from last year’s two matches.
Much of that can be attributed to the impressive form of Nick Smith, who has become the backbone of the Swans’ defence, along with Dane Rampe and Heath Grundy.
A win for Sydney would see them move into the top four, and there’s the strong chance they could stay there by Sunday night, given Port Adelaide and Richmond both face tricky away assignments, against the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle respectively.
The Swans then face Carlton in the final round before they embark on their eighth consecutive finals campaign.
But first things first.
While the Crows have been the best team for the majority of the season, when you take away the first six rounds, the Swans have been more impressive, winning more matches than any other side and also putting together the longest winning streak (seven matches, between rounds 12-18 inclusive).
Whoever wins this match just might assume the mantle of premiership favourites given we are so close to what promises to be another exciting September.
kobi
Guest
I want Swans to win coz Adrian will start crying and blame the umps.
Ben Talintyre
Roar Pro
I can't see a crash. I think Swans will be hard pressed to win this one in Adelaide but I wouldn't be surprised if the Swans take it to them. To be in the position they are now after their start suggests they will go deep into finals.
Roger of Sydney
Guest
Just can't see the Crows have the continual pressure to close Sydney down, Crows do capitulate, the Swans don't. If it is raining then sadly the Crows, dry track then the Swans. Talk of the Swans having to travel in the finals really is a moot point, their away performance match their SCG performances and have done a job on home teams like Bulldogs and Cats. As an ex South Aussie I still have like for the Crows and absolute hate for Port so trying to be unbiased, I don't thing the Crows will handle the manic pressure.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
Nice Each Way bet Swannies!
Sydneygirl
Guest
Should be a good game. Like Roger better for Sydney to play Adelaide at full strength. Will give us more idea where each team is at. These two teams and GWS look the goods for the grand final. But as we know only two can make it. Wouldn't like to hazard at guess of which two out of the three that will be. Just looking forward to Friday night at this stage.
Tom
Roar Rookie
Dogs haven't played Hawks yet, last round of the season is the first time.
Tom
Roar Rookie
Dogs haven't played Hawks yet, last round of the season is the first time.
Egbirt
Guest
Be good if the author got some facts straight... Crows haven't scored 100 points in 16 games - rather 13 - and have won three when scoring less than 100...
sammy
Guest
not really about hanging my hat on, but more to say that form over a whole season determines where a team finishes. We know Sydney will be tough but flip it around and they will also know that the crows have destroyed teams this year and have done it against fellow top 8 teams as well. With the way the final 2 rounds will pan out, Adelaide is guaranteed a top 2 spot even if they were to rest players and drop games against the swans and west coast away. Sydney have to win both of their remaining games and hope that geelong or GWS drop both theirs or richmond drop one of theirs and with games against a woeful freo and St Kilda who are now out of finals calculations, it presents a simple path for them to secure the final top 4 spot. That means Sydney will have to win 4 finals to be premiers and 3 of those finals will be away from home unless they get GWS where the game would at least be in Sydney. If the swans lose this friday night, they are likely to finish 6th and that would pair them with Adelaide in Adelaide in a prelim providing both Adelaide and Sydney win their respective finals.I can understand why many teams would fear the swans coming into september, but unless the crows fall in a heap, they certainly have the tools and the form to dismantle the swans
Bruce
Guest
That was a ridiculous schedule. Dogs vs Hawks should have been in the first few rounds....it was a hugely anticipated game.
Danny
Guest
I agree but equally we could to an extent disregard the period from round 7 till round 14 where the crows were below par and lost 4. Sydney started the season poorly and Adelaide had a poor patch of similar length mid season.I equally say the Adelaide aren't going to dish up how they played against North and others mid season. since round 14 Crows they have played 7 won 6 and drawn 1 Sydney have won 6 of 7 in the same period i think its fair to say we have the two form teams facing off on Friday
Danny
Guest
Last year the Crows were also a very high scoring side. But I think their defence is now tighter and for me for the clear difference this year is the improvement in the midfield and generally their attack on the contests. These were the areas Sydney smashed then in the semi final last year. There was a mid season drop off in these areas and a slump followed. At that stage my doubts were resurfacing. But now over the past 8 weeks they have been very impressive in all aspects of their game apart from the first half against the Pies. During that slump it seemed that the simple answer was tag Sloan and slow their ball movement. We all wondered whether their was a plan B. Sloan is still being tagged and sometimes to good effect however this has released the Crouch brothers and Douglas in career best form. With the addition of Greenwood I think its a case of focus on Sloan at your own risk. The game plan also looks to have developed other gears, with occasional slow precise movement by foot until space is found and then suddenly up the speed into to their dangerous forward line. It is not all slingshot movement off half back, although that also remains a devastating option particularly when the ball is in the hands of Laird, Atkins or Smith. Friday will be a true test of Adelaide's game under extreme physical pressure so the jury is still out. I think they can weather the Sydney storm and come out on top.
Avatar
Roar Guru
Yes, the West Coast vs Adelaide game will almost certainly be the final game ever played at Domain Stadium. Given the pre-finals bye I doubt the Crows will take a weakened side to Perth for the clash against the Eagles; in fact that was why the week off was introduced in the first place, to stop coaches from deliberately fielding weaker sides (think Fremantle in 2013 and 2015). The Eagles might also have something to play for in the final round, if it beats GWS in Sydney this weekend.
Glenn
Guest
Good points, but the best over the whole season counts for nothing more than final ladder position. The first 6 weeks of the Swans season is a write off and counts for nothing as the Swans have been a different team since. Starting from that point is the only way to judge the Swans season. They will never play as bad as they did against Carlton with this list of players ever again, but your reasoning suggests that this is an example of what Sydney is capable of dishing up. Therefore something to hang your hat on as to how bad they could play come finals. Sorry, not going to happen. 3 wins better and a massive percentage is a true indication.
sammy
Guest
Amusing all the talk of the swans after round 6 being 3 wins better than the next best team (the crows), but if we start at round 3, then both the crows and swans have the same wins with the crows shading it with the draw. But if we look at the teams from the beginning of the season, the crows are 3 wins and a draw ahead of the swans. It looks like it might be wet in which case I am very confident the crows will win probably in the 3-6 goal range assuming they have their full kit available. They have been by far and away the best performed team in the wet this year (freo by 17 goals, Bulldogs by 10 goals, St Kilda by 10 goals, Port by 14 goals, Melbourne away by 8 goals in the humidity). Even if it is dry, I believe that the crows only need to break even in the middle with the swans to set up a win due to the ability to score from multiple avenues....but really, who knows until the game has been played
Mattyb
Guest
Well Gyfox,your in for an even bigger shock next week when the hawks play the dogs for the first time in the final round.
GJ
Guest
Depending on how the games pan out this weekend, its hard to see Adelaide taking a full strength team over to Perth. Will the Crows vs WC game be the last played at Subiaco before the move to the new stadium?
Bloodsfan
Guest
You've been saying this for weeks and weeks and weeks, Peter. The crash aint arrived yet. We're just warming up!
Avatar
Roar Guru
even more intriguing - West Coast and Adelaide meet for the first time in the season in the last game of the regular season! Can't remember the last time this had happened (the closest was when Hawthorn and Collingwood met for the only time in 2016 in a 3:20pm game on the Sunday in round 23).
Jim
Guest
The crash has been a long time coming Peter - I've read similar comments week after week - the Swans have only been beaten by their Kryptonite since Rd 6, and over that period I believe are ~ 3 wins in front of anyone else. Will be interesting to see how they go against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval - a very tough challenge indeed. But they have a good overall record at the ground, the shape of the ground (long and narrow) appears to suit their gameplan (certainly didn't harm them at Kardinia the other week), and last years game over there was a cracker, being a 50/50 contest until the last couple of minutes (and arguably influenced by one of the worst umpiring non-calls of the season). It really was a toss of the coin job - an electric game played at a very high tempo. Should be a good game on Friday night between two teams in excellent form, and maybe a preview of a more cut throat meeting later on in the season.