2017 season review: Carlton Blues

By Stirling Coates / Editor

We saw glimpses of a good future for Carlton in 2017 but, as far as the raw numbers go, the Blues actually went backwards after an encouraging 2016.

Does Brendon Bolton have some concerns? Or are Carlton ready to slingshot back up the ladder in the near future?

What I predicted
“While the club appears to be more prepared for the future, in the short term it’s very hard to argue their list has got any better compared to the end of last year.

“Sometimes you have to go backwards to go forwards.”

Prediction: 17th

What actually happened
Carlton’s first seven games looked to have them in decent stead, with encouraging upsets over Sydney, Essendon and Collingwood punctuating some competitive losses.

A one-point win over Greater Western Sydney at the halfway point looked to have the Blues set for a strong second half of the season but, like 2016, that didn’t eventuate.

Just the two wins followed, and in the end the club actually finished with a record of 6-16 – one win fewer than their previous campaign.

Carlton were a competitive side for almost the entire season however, with only five losses coming by over five goals – three of those coming against top-four sides.

Patrick Cripps missing a chunk of the season did himself and the club a great deal of harm, although they still got encouraging campaigns from youngsters Charlie Curnow, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jack Silvagni and Sam Docherty.

Liam Jones’ conversion from dud key forward to borderline-elite full back was astonishing to behold, the older brigade in Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson and Matthew Kreuzer led with their actions, while Bryce Gibbs rebounded from a tumultuous offseason to put his best foot forward once more.

While the experimental approach to this season and last may have not netted a whole lot of wins, Carlton can say, perhaps more than any other bottom side right now, they’ve established exactly who’s going to take them up the ladder.

Best win
Round 22: Carlton 12.5 (77) def. Hawthorn 10.10 (70)

As stunning as their one-point win against the Giants was in Round 12, it was the stunning seven-point win over a Hawks team trying to fly back in the finals that will be remembered more fondly.

Coming into the match on an eight-game losing streak, the Blues had a point to prove against a team who’d toyed with them for the better part of a decade.

They started strong, resisted several pushes from their highly-fancied opponents, and hung on for a spirited late-season triumph.

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Worst loss
Round 18: Brisbane Lions 17.10 (112) def. Carlton 11.16 (82)

Carlton lost plenty of games in 2017, but this was one of the few performances where they just seemed off from the opening bounce.

Having pushed Adelaide, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs right to the end in their previous three games, this was certainly a game the Blues were capable of winning, but just never gave themselves a chance.

Games like this are the reason Bolton isn’t satisfied with honourable losses.

What needs to happen next year?
After inheriting a list in shambles, Bolton had every right to coach his first two years without wins and losses being the key performance indicator.

Next year, however, you’d think the Blues need to start making some tangible progress on the field to keep the optimism around the club at the level it is.

Drastic improvement around the coalface is essential. Their last-placed ranking in points per game can be traced back to their second-last ranking in inside 50s.

That, in turn, can be traced back to their last-placed ranking in disposals per game, while that can be partly attributed to their second-last ranking in clearances and bottom four ranking in contested possessions.

While those stats suggest the Blues could get it together quickly with a turnaround at the stoppages, that is a task certainly easier said than done.

Early prediction
Their win tally may have dipped in 2017, but the Blues were competitive in just about every match.

Few teams genuinely looked forward to playing Carlton, and next season that trend should continue.

Prediction: 11th-14th

The Crowd Says:

2017-09-09T01:55:00+00:00

Waldo

Guest


If GWS go out in straight sets as they well might, the chances of Kelly getting to may increase. It will all be revealed in 3 weeks

2017-09-09T01:38:11+00:00

Peter Walton

Guest


Why is everyone forgetting Patty Kerr. I was around to see his Grand Dad, Laurie play. Pat has a lot of the same characteristics but, injury has held him back last year and also in the TAC year. I saw him play a fair bit with the Northern Blues this year and I think he will make it and team very well with Big H. He has a bit of Laurie in him, a send off to the Coburg crowd after kicking a very nice goal in front of them was priceless

2017-08-31T02:37:46+00:00

Gecko

Guest


Quite a positive article for a side that finished almost bottom, but the Blues do seem to be doing all the right things under Bolton. If they can keep Gibbs and add an inside midfielder and goal-kicking forward, they'll rise in 2018.

2017-08-31T01:03:29+00:00

Leighton

Guest


I too loved Princes Park and it was a good atmosphere. Grew up watching the blues from the outer. The passion to return there was the main theme at the AGM last year. But, and I agree with the club, that AFL and Carlton games will not return to Princes Park. The idea that we play a few games there is misguided and short sighted and looks to the past. Even if there was a willingness, and funding to get the place to 40,000 people why do we, as a club, aspire to have 40,000 at our games? Carlton should aspire to have 50-60k crowds every week. That means the MCG. Princes Park has great potential to become the preferred venue for women's football, VFL finals and more ambitiously, a training and bio-med research and rehab hub close to hospitals, melb uni and soon to have a new train station nearby. Its the most strategic location of all the Melbourne clubs. We can turn this into revenue with the planning and foresight.

2017-08-30T23:14:02+00:00

Macca

Guest


Zed16 - I definitely wouldn't be delisting Boekhorst, I think his last mnoth was good enough to at least get another year (although he wouldn't be under a lot of pressure to retain his spot) but if we could get a decent trade I would be open to it. Whether Balic is that trade am unsure as he doesn't have a lot of exposed form but he could well be.

2017-08-30T11:56:43+00:00

Zed16

Guest


Gents i agree with most of your outs but i think we should be hanging on to Boekhorst. He has only played 20 odd games had a run of injuries but showed good consistent form in the VFL and this translated to good signs in the AFL after some continuity in the team. He can find the goals and his passing can be very good but shaded with some "moments' and i would suggest this is still inexperience. I think we should also applaud the performances of Murphy, Kruezer, Gibbs, Docherty and Simpson as they all had outstanding seasons and have all improved their Schick ratings. I genuinely think people underestimate the massive effort of these guys as we played around 8 guys per game with less than 30 games experience and still hardening to the rigors of AFL. These guys always looked totally spent after each game. I was also pleased to see Liam Jones find a place as he is a talented player and he has found the spot that suits him and i look forward to see him grow in the role.

2017-08-30T11:36:16+00:00

The Doc

Roar Guru


Agree with your comment about princes park. Miss the days standing in Robert heatley stand. It was rabid atmosphere comapred to the stale indoor feel of Etihad (although i do love the ease of access and amenities). WOuld require significant investment from government and club and I doubt there is the stomach for that present. if increase capacity to 40,000 would be great for games against interstate teams e.g. Freo, WCE etc where crowds are unlikely to top 40,000.

2017-08-30T10:27:24+00:00

Pete

Guest


The difference this year was the age of our list. Exciting times ahead. Bring on 2020 !

2017-08-30T06:02:44+00:00

Macca

Guest


Zubrick here are the stats for Dangerfield and Ed Curnow at the same age on average Possessions - PD = 15.7 CC 14.1 Marks - PD 2.7 CC 5.7 Goals PD 1.4 CC 1.0 Tackles PD 3.0 CC 2.9 Disposal Efficiency PD 58% CC 78% Games PD 19 CC 21

2017-08-30T04:38:26+00:00

zubrick

Guest


bottom 4 again next year and same for next decade or so this once great club is irrevocably hopeless management and coaching staff encourage supporters to believe success is ahead as players mature this is drivel to hang your hat on what the blues need desperately is a couple of dangerfields or dusty's champions to lift us out of the mire

2017-08-30T00:23:10+00:00

Leighton

Guest


Good assessment and rightly clarifies the problem for Carlton as a midfield lack of depth. The fortunate thing is that midfielders are easier to acquire and more possessions can be added without too much lag time in development. The key for me is that the last two draft cohorts have for the most part played significant numbers of games. Weitering, a key position player in just his second year has punched out over 40 games. Charlie Curnow has now played over 20. Plowman and Marchbank have now played plenty of games together. If McKay can develop well over the next 2 seasons Carlton will have a strong spine. Even a lower draft pick in Tom Williamson has played much of his first season. A core of moderately experienced (50-100 games), youthful players is starting to develop which improves the chance of future success. The drafts from 2010 to 2014 were a wipeout with only Cripps now an established player. It shows just how big the hole the blues have been in. Carlton have been trying to adjust their demographics and add talent at the same time. How well this works in the coming draft/trade period will have a big influence on the number of wins next year.

2017-08-30T00:02:21+00:00

Macca

Guest


Billary - I would love to play some games at Princes Park as well but the AFL were never going to let it happen - the best we could have ever hopes for was getting to play the interstate side at Princes PArk and that still would have taken a massive upgrade of facilities. On Boekhorst in the last month he kicked 5 goals 1 behind, laid 12 tackles, and had 73 possessions and he averaged career highs across the board this year - I doubt he would be in our best 22 next year (at least not by the end of it) but I think he will get another year.

2017-08-29T23:53:42+00:00

Billary Swamper

Guest


It's the journey, it's the vibe. There is hope at Carlton. Bit of list trimming to come the next month or so. Will be interesting to see if Blaine Boekhorst, Buckley, Lamb, Sumner make the cut. There are others I could mention, but that is just the one's off the top of my head. Miraculously Liam Jones has turned him career around. That is like that story of that famous blues guitarist Robert Johnson who did the deal with the devil to become the greatest guitarist seemingly out of thin air. One point I need to make because it really sticks in my craw is, if we still played games at Princes Park, we would have won a bunch more. Foolish, short term-ism by taking that blood money, the twelve pieces of silver, the devil's candy, that filthy lucre and go to Docklands under Ian Collins. It has cost us a lot in the years since we left Princes Park. Geelong meanwhile, gets in the finals every year and it helps they can bank those 7, 8 or 9 Kardinia Park matches.

2017-08-29T23:43:23+00:00

Macca

Guest


Col - I agree with your outs on the list, although I think Graham will be offered for trade and likely get minimal interest and the blues will offer him another 1 year contract where he will play mainly in the 2's (and probably win the VFL B&F) but only play AFL in case of injuries. I think this solely because we lack depth and he is a depth player. Sumner I think will be gone, with Lamb, Fisher, Pickett and Wright all playing the small forward role this year and the possibility of Polson emerging next year I can't see him being required. Boekhorst for Balic - interesting call and I could see it possibly happening (maybe not a straight trade though) will be interesting to see how it plays out. The player I really want to blossom in 2018 is Cuningham - that burst from a stoppage is an incredibly exciting attribute - if he can take the next step the blues mid filed dynamic changes dramatically.

2017-08-29T23:19:10+00:00

Col from Brissie

Roar Guru


A good and unbiased assessment of where the Blues sit at the moment. At the beginning of the year supporters were told by the club that there was the possibility that season 2017 could see the club go backwards from the results of 2016 due to wanting to get more games into their younger players. The result was one less win but in most other areas there was improvement and we got those games into our youth. The loss of Cripps and Curnow hurt the midfield as it meant Murphy who had been having a great season playing more outside midfield had to play more inside. Gibbs start to the season was fantastic and he was certainly in AA consideration but his game also suffered as opposition were able to concentrate on shutting him down in the absence of Cripps and Curnow. Our defensive six were our strength and we have 11 players who have played through that area over the season. Of those 11 possibly Simon White is the only player who's future at the club is unclear. The forward line is a work in progress with hopes of McKay and possibly Kerr playing more games next year alongside Curnow, Silvagni, Wright, SPS and Pickett. Jed Lamb showed enough to suggest that he could lock a spot down as a defensive forward. The future of Levi is not clear but Richmond have stated they are not interested but perhaps Collingwood might make him an offer if the reports of Cox going North are true. I believe Carlton have offered him a 2 year contract on more money but he is after 3 years. The midfield is where we need to have the biggest improvement and getting Cripps and Curnow back will be a big plus. Murphy will be allowed to play that outside role again and we should see more of SPS, Cunningham and Fisher running through there as well as cameos from Charlie Curnow. We definitely need another inside mid as well as more speed on the outside. Kreuzer had a great year and there is no reason that form won't continue for the next 4 - 5 years as long as his body holds up. Phillips was injured for most of the season so another back up ruckman should also be on the radar. I believe that Gorringe, Jaksch and Buckley have been told they won't be offered contracts and I think Graham and Sumner will have some anxious days ahead. My out there prediction is Boekhorst to Fremantle for a swap with Harley Balic. Looking forward to an improved 2018 from the Blues.

2017-08-29T23:17:11+00:00

Macca

Guest


Good article Stirling and kudos to you for correctly identifying the blues big issue (midfield depth) rather than lack of scoring options up forward. While it can be argued the blues did actually take significant steps forward this year (winning more quarters, less blow out losses and finishing the year with over 180 games experience in our 18-20 playing group) at the very least they went backwards by far less than most expected. But that is the past, what of the future. In 2016 our wins dried up once Murphy got injure in 2017 our wins dried up once we lost Cripps and Curnow, clearly we need more midfield depth. In 2016 these Cripps & Curnow averaged 12.9 clearances a game between them, this year the managed just 28 of 44 games between them, adding them back in 2018 will go along way to getting us out of second last for clearances but that won't be enough. The blues will either draft a midfielder (Davies Uniacke or Cerra most likely) with pick 3 or use it as part of a trade for Josh Kelly either of which will help, Kelly will obviously have a massive immediate impact but they also have a couple of players on the list who hopefully will take another step forward and help them improve in this area, David Cuningham and SPS. Cuningham has an amazing burst of speed and a great ability to break away from a stoppage, another pre-season and a good run with injury should see him become a permanent member of the team and spend considerable timein the middle in 2018. Once Cripps went down SPS spent far more time in the middle and averaged over 3 clearances a game over 8 games, well up on his season average of just 2.1, again, another pre-season and it isn't unrealistic to expect further improvement and more time spent in the middle.

2017-08-29T20:46:19+00:00

The Doc

Roar Guru


Good read and very fair assessment. As you said it wasnt about the wins but about getting more games into the younger players, implementing the systems. really happy with how the list progressing: In defence - Jones was a brilliant find. Marchbank coming from GWS will be a star and Plowman took further steps forward to show he will be a great 3rd tall defender. DOherty stepped up as an elite rebounding defender and Weitering showed he wasnt a 1 season wonder. Byrne also showed something. The forward line is still a work but Charlie Curnow made good progress and if he continues his current trajectory he will be a star. A good pre season should see him have his breakout year in 2018. Seen enough of hArry Mackay to think he will be a very good player as well. Pickett showed good signs at the end to suggest he will be the small forward we have been lacking. A forward line of Mackay/curnow/pickett/silvani/wright has taken shape. Levi is a bit of a conondrum - im a big fan of his marking, workrate. He perhaps needs to give a bit more at ground level and concede less free kicks but with his improved conversion rate he had his best season to date. THe midfield of course is the problem area and completely agree that the loss of curnow (our best run with player) and cripps hurt us immensely. We lost 10+ clearances with those two leaving Murphy and gibbs to shoulder too much burden. SPS had a brilliant start to his career, fisher needs to improve disposal efficiency but looks a likely type and boekhort showed enough to keep a spot on the list. beyond that slim pickings - and this is where carlton need to attack the draft/trade period. of all three areas, midfield is probably the easiest to bolster quickly so I am not overly worried. agree 11-14 with 7-9 wins would be a satisfactory outcome for 2018.

2017-08-29T18:54:46+00:00

Andrew

Guest


Fair assessment of the Blues they need midfield depth to push on from here. The lack of Ed Curnow and Cripps really hurt the back end of the season as was the case last year with Murphy's ankle. I'd be throwing everything I had at Josh Kelly as he is exactly what is needed and use all other draft choices on more midfielders just to strengthen that depth. The forward line is a small issue as it needs development and maybe another future player through the draft but it's midfield all the way this time. Once the midfield is stocked, a more attacking gameplan can be implemented as the back line looks fine. Getting our hands on the ball and delivery into the forward line should be main focus next year. Hopefully if all that can happen 10th-14th wont be out of the question. However if that doesn't happen, then bottom 4 would be likely.

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