No reigning premier in recent memory was picked to slide out of the eight more than the Western Bulldogs, and in the end, those predictions rang true as the Dogs finished 10th.
Was ultimate success in 2016 really just a flash in the pan for Luke Beveridge’s list? Or will 2017 prove be just a road bump in an ongoing doggy dynasty?
What I predicted
“With a healthy crop of players in the prime of their careers and an even scarier list of players who still have the ability to improve, Luke Beveridge’s charges have more than a fair chance of lifting the cup again this year.”
Prediction: 1st
What actually happened
The Bulldogs appeared to be on track for at least a return to the finals early on, with five wins from their first seven games putting them in good stead.
But there were some cracks during that period. They really struggled to put away some bottom sides in North Melbourne and Brisbane, while wins over Sydney and Richmond were assisted largely by some questionable umpiring decisions.
Eventually, those cracks became serious issues as the club slumped through an eight-game period that yielded just the two wins.
They rebounded with a four-game winning streak to get them to 11-8 and within striking distance of a September return, but they just weren’t good enough to get the job done from there.
One of the biggest problems for the Bulldogs in 2017 was the complete and utter dysfunction of their forward line.
While they weren’t a high scoring team in their premiership campaign, the club slipped into the bottom four in points per game in 2017.
Travis Cloke proved to be an unwise recruiting decision, Tom Boyd couldn’t recapture any of his grand final magic, while form and fitness wreaked havoc on the seasons of Jake Stringer, Tory Dickson and Stewart Crameri.
The Dogs struggled to take marks inside 50, but the set-up was so impacted that they plummeted from fifth to tenth in tackles inside forward 50.
Many of their more damaging midfielders were forced to spend too much time up forward to combat this, resulting in an even more dramatic drop in clearances.
The Dogs fell from sixth to 16th in clearances, while also ranking second last in centre clearances.
Best win
Round 7: Western Bulldogs 11.14 (80) def. Richmond 11.9 (75)
It’s somewhat telling that finding a standout victory for the Dogs this year was a challenge.
Round 7 was memorable, however, with the club recovering from a 26-point quarter time deficit to slowly reel the Tigers in to just two points at the last break.
They stole the lead with three straight goals in the fourth quarter before hanging on for a thrilling five-point triumph.
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Worst loss
Round 13: Western Bulldogs 8.8 (56) def. by Melbourne 17.11 (113)
After a thumping loss to the Swans at the SCG, the Bulldogs needed to make a statement against the up and coming Demons on their home deck.
Unfortunately, they played even worse than the week before.
Melbourne comfortably outclassed the reigning premiers in every quarter to run out 57-point victors.
The result brought the Dogs back to 6-6 after a 5-2 start, seriously questioning their finals chances.
What needs to happen next year?
Restoring their terrifying pressure inside forward 50 is essential for the Dogs if they want to recapture their form of 2016.
It may seem to be as simple as get Cloke, Boyd, Stringer, Dickson and Crameri on the park more, but with Cloke and Dickson on the wrong side of 30 next season and Crameri thereabouts, the problem may not be so easily fixed.
The smalls and the runners do their job just fine at the moment for the Bulldogs, but they really need their talls to stand up – and not just up forward.
The Bulldogs had the worst contested mark differential in the competition by some margin in 2017 and, if they continue to be outclassed in the air, the rest of their gameplan will struggle to get going.
Early prediction
In some ways it may seem the Dogs were always going to slide given the bad luck they encountered in the personnel department.
But with so many ‘ifs’ around how much the talls can actually turn it around next year, there may be more for Beveridge to sort out in 2018 than we may think.
Prediction: 9th-12th
Kevin thornton
Guest
Pete what a load of crap no one over achieves to win a grand final it takes a team committed to win a grand final and they were committed fully, after seeing what transpired in the finals of 2017 so far the teams who made the eight were not worthy of being there Sydney,Geelong,Essendon, all play a game that enables them to win home and away games but when it comes to finals the plan is no good, the bulldogs Where hit with major injuries in 2016 and still went on to win From 7th position never been done before and probably never again, had to play Fremantle last game and then west coast first final then gws all interstate games that's not over achieving that's monumental, the reason for not making the finals in 2017 was the injury toll was just to severe even for this side to handle everyone seems to not mention this and would rather put it down to grand final blues.
Andrew Macdougall
Roar Pro
12 games or less in 2017: Crameri (not offered contract for 2018), Wallis, Jong, Roughead, Tom Boyd, Matthew Boyd, Adams, Cloke, Dickson, Redpath, Smith and Dunkley. Fair reason why the team couldn't get it together for another run. In 2016 they might have able to ride the injury wave, but it was too much in 2017. The magnitude of the Grand Final win last year gets underplayed, not like any normal flag, for a young group it was emotionally draining.
I ate pies
Guest
Awesome, thanks for that tip. I miss being able to watch the VFL
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
That's fair, but Boyd is a KPP 21 year old. If you ignore how much he's being paid, most clubs would be stoked to have a bloke of his quality developing the way he has. He has been very valuable to us structurally when he's played the last two seasons and as a forward, he continually presents in the right areas at the right times and never gets out-marked. If he can overcome his mental demons, I think he is still on target to be a key player for us and I think we'll see that in 2018. Stringer started this season very well, but then twisted his knee, then did his hamstring, then did his hamstring again. He is a gun and I'm very happy to have him at our club. But he needs support. With Tom Boyd up forward and another big presence, like Redpath or Zaine Cordy balanced by some quality smalls, Stringer becomes more dangerous. Tory Dickson missed the pre-season then got injured a few times throughout the year. When he played, he looked like he was puffing for breath early in games. Redpath missed the first half of the season returning from a serious knee injury, then got suspended twice for frivolous actions. Bottom line I think is that if we have Stringer and Boyd in our forward line all year, injury-free, the forward line works. We didn't have them both playing forward hardly at any time this year. We have plenty of small/medium size blokes who can swing forward to apply pressure and crumb the ground balls, such as Picken, Dahlhaus, McLean, Dickson, Smith, Dale, Libber, Wallis, Daniel, Dunkley and Lipinski. We've also got the mercurial Bont, who can wreak havoc anywhere. Hopefully Roughead, Campbell and Marcus Adams (and Zaine Cordy, although he seems perpetually healthy) can all stay injury free too, and have a solid pre-season so that we have the necessary number of tall, strong players in our side. Lewis Young and Tim English both look like exciting tall prospects but need 2 or 3 seasons developing their body strength. Jake Lever and/or Trengrove would be great additions.
Pete
Guest
The Dogs over achieved last year and the reality is they may never threaten for the flag again in the foreseeable future.
Pete
Guest
Dogs over achieved last year and the reality is they may never threaten for the flag again in the foreseeable future.
Stirling Coates
Editor
The difference is, while the forward line was missing for most of the year, there are legitimate question marks as to whether Cloke (over 30), Crameri (will be over 30 next season), Dickson (30 by the end of next season), Boyd (yet to put a truly good full season together) or Stringer (the most likely to bounce back, but still somewhat mercurial) will be able to make the impact required next year. It's not as simple as a better year in the medical room.
Stirling Coates
Editor
Spot on. They did a superb job last year (and in fact they also did during the Rodney Eade era) of getting by without obvious superstars in the 195cm+ category, but the talls were such a non-factor this year there weren't anywhere enough crumbs for the smalls to work with.
Mattyb
Guest
Also IAP,if you want to watch the Footscray finals from interstate,go to the 7 plus website and when it asks for your postcode type in 3000. Our next game is against Port,you might even be able to get a replay of last weeks game there. Was a really good game,especially the second half.
Birdman
Guest
Game plan must adjust as the rolling maul has been worked out and is too punishing to be sustained. Also need another main man ruck - Goldstein or Cox look gettable
Brian
Guest
Not many of the good players seemed to have made the leap to star. Libba, Picken, Hunter , Dahlhaus, Macrae, Johannissen. Maybe its harsh but lacking talls they really need that group to dominate week in week out. Right now Bontompelli is their only superstar. Indeed if Dusty was offered 1.5m I don't see why Bont wouldn't be in the same position when his time comes. With Boyd as well that could present some very serious salary cap pressures.
Mattyb
Guest
I'm going to talk about Crameri in Josh's article but I think he'll go. Cloke I think will stay as back up,unless we can recruit another forward.
Cam
Guest
Their best win was apparently the Richmond game yet the 'learned' and 'well researched' author also says that that game was decided by questionable free kicks? If I remember correctly, there were some very questionable free kicks not paid against Richmond in the last quarter - most notably a blatant throw to Reiwoldt which resulted in a goal to Richmond. At the time the narrative driven by the media was that the Dogs were the umpires darlings so it's understandable that the author has mentioned this. One thing that this article does prove is that quality footy writing is very hard to come by these days. Next
Brayden Rise
Roar Pro
The mystique of the Bulldogs 2016 rise to greatness has only been added to by the failure by the Doggies this year to make the finals. The epic finals month where we saw a team at the peak of passion and confidence took all before it. They came in, raided the 2016 premiership cup with manic pressure like a pack of rabid dogs. Along the way they knocked out the top dog in Hawthorn, the up and coming pup in GWS and the reliable solid husky in Sydney. They were irrepressible and magnificent.Now, in 2017 they retreated once more to lick their wounds. They need to make a movie about the Bulldogs of 2016, it is something we may never see again.
I ate pies
Guest
I'm excited for him next year Matty. I reckon he's hitting the age and fitness where he can start taking games apart. What's your thoughts on Crameri? It sounds to me like they're putting their faith in Red and Boyd as the two tall forwards, and maybe Cordy or Young playing forward if they can pick up a backman or ruckman (I expect Roughead to go to the backline if we pick up a ruckman). I don't expect Cloke to play for us again.
Mattyb
Guest
IAP,Big Tommy went well on the weekend kicking 4goals, He started off on fire kicking two goals in the first ten minutes. The first a 65m set shot from inside the square,the second a lovely piece of roving his own contest and snapping very classily on his left foot. He then went pretty quiet playing predominantly forward. With the team well down at half time Boyd was moved into the ruck and really imposed himself on the game. He played very well. In the final querter he took a nice mark on the boundary 40m out. With the dogs only a goal up,kicking into a very stiff breeze,he went back and it never looked like missing. A massive clutch goal.
I ate pies
Guest
Tom Boyd missed the second half of the year through depression, not form. I don't think any team would do well with most of their forward line missing for most of the year. Boyd was a massive loss. It's odd that the list hasn't really changed, yet the prediction has changed from 1st to potentially 12th. What's the difference?