Jolimont. Friday. Around 6:45pm. If you’re there, chances are you’ll find yourself drawn in by the inescapable aura of hope and expectation that characterises finals football in Melbourne.
More likely, however, is that you will be a part of it. Donning either a Richmond scarf or a Geelong guernsey, you’ll be balancing a meat pie and a hot jam doughnut in your hands, conveniently using the ‘football experience’ as an excuse for your stress eating.
Why?
Because after the pre-finals bye and two weeks of jeering the Melbourne supporters – who have been bearable for the first time since March – in your office, in a little over an hour your team will be playing in a match that means a lot more than a berth in a preliminary final.
For two teams whose records in September over the last five years have been far from polished, the loser will feel the ramifications more acutely than just having to line up again the following week.
Since their 2011 premiership in Chris Scott’s first season as coach, Geelong has won a grand total of two finals. That sounds respectable, even enviable for many teams in the competition. However, they have lost seven September clashes in this period.
Bundled out in straight sets in 2014 and losing two out of three finals played in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Geelong’s recent finals record is sub-par for a team that has finished in the top two in eight of the past eleven seasons.
(Image: Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Putting on a hypothetical cap and assuming Geelong lose, their most likely opponent in week two of the finals would be a rampaging Sydney, assuming the favourites get up against the Bombers. Not only a serious contender to replicate the Bulldogs’ efforts of winning the premiership from outside the top four, the Swans are also a side that has comfortably beaten Geelong in their last three encounters. Therefore if Geelong lose on Friday, another straight-sets exit looms.
For sentimental value, too, this season sees the end of an era, with Tom Lonergan and Andrew Mackie both set to retire at the conclusion of the Cats’ September campaign. It will leave only Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan, Tom Hawkins and Harry Taylor from the 2011 premiership team. The Cats will be looking to prolong the career of two champions for as long as possible.
Moving to their opponents, Richmond enter the first week of the finals with a small win on the board. The fact that this match is rightly being played at the MCG, despite being a Geelong home game, means a passionate and bloodthirsty Tiger Army will be able to pack into the home of football.
In terms of consequence, September stalwart Chris Judd wrote of the scars of recent finals for Richmond, who have not won a final since 2001. Losses in 2013, 2014 and 2015 will inevitably weigh heavily on the minds of the Tigers, especially as they enter their 2017 campaign with a double chance.
What’s more, Richmond enter this finals campaign with All Australian captain Alex Rance headlining their defensive structure and have all-but-secured Brownlow medallist Dustin Martin bursting out of the midfield. There are no excuses this time around.
Let’s turn again to the hypothetical Sydney factor should Richmond lose. The Tigers have a better record against the Swans than Geelong do, having won three of the last five – their most recent encounter was a narrow win to Sydney in Round 13.
Regardless, Sydney’s might and September prowess would see them enter a semi-final as favourites, and a straight-sets exit would all but confirm Judd’s suspicions of Richmond’s finals wobbles.
Cat
Roar Guru
That old tired and disproven nugget: Geelong can't win without big games from Dangerwood - Selwood goes out injured for several weeks and Geelong just keep on winning. If you don't think Menegola, Duncan, Parfitt, Parsons and others have grown and stepped up this year you obviously don't actually watch any Geelong games. Danger has been no more important for Geelong than Dusty has been for Richmond.
Philby
Guest
I know I'm contradicting myself, but I'd add that Geelong's two best by a mile, Dangerfield, have tried to drag the rest of the team up with them, but this Geelong team hasn't improved much if at all this year. By contrast, the Tigers have kept improving all year, and we've improved even since the last time these teams met just a few weeks ago. And our belief has grown with it. It'll be a great match.
Peter T
Guest
As a cats fan I am so nervous
truetigerfan
Guest
Very touchy, Cat. All I'm saying is if a bookie offered me 38 points in I'd be all over it in a big way. My prediction . . . a close game that could go either way.
Philby
Guest
You've said your piece, I've said mine, and I stick to it. I just don't rate this Geelong team. Any further discussion is pointless - let's see what Friday night brings.
Knoxy
Guest
Can't take a joke Cat?
Cat
Roar Guru
Wishing players to get hurt ... how classy of you ...
Knoxy
Guest
Geelong to lose by one goal after being 38 points up a 3qtr time. Hawkins to get suspended for jumper punching Alex Rance whilst Joel Selwood goes down with a season ending ankle injury.
Birdman
Guest
just as well every other facet means next to SFA :)
Connor
Guest
Hawthorn have the extra flag, which is ultimately what success and eras are judged on. But in every other facet Geelong's last 10 years have been better than Hawthorn's last 10.
Cat
Roar Guru
Wouldn't worry me in the least. They look good when they can run and carry but there's a bit of down hill skier to the side. Defensively Essendon can be exposed badly.
Cat
Roar Guru
Too strong and too powerful based on what exactly? All well and good to say all streaks end, but your credibility would be better if you could at least point to some reasons other than 'even a stopped watch is correct twice a day'.
Philby
Guest
It's a great run by the Cats, but all runs come to an end eventually, and this one will too. The question is when? Tiges have been getting closer and closer in the last few years, and Friday night would be the ideal time to break through. I think we are just too strong and too powerful for the Cats, and it will be our night.
Birdman
Guest
maybe you missed the bit about Geelong and their flag prospects? on a tangent but not entirely off topic IMHO.
Cat
Roar Guru
If you are so confidant I am wrong, man up and post your prediction.
Mattyb
Guest
why don't the Hawthorn people discuss their persecution complex in an article that's actually about Hawthorn?
Birdman
Guest
sure mattyb we can't have posters on an opinions forum stinking it up with their opinions. sheesh!
andyl12
Guest
Nearly every neutral told me in 2016 that five flags was too much for Hawthorn and shouldn't be allowed to happen. Even in 2015 they said four shouldn't be allowed to happen, while at the same time saying the three-flag eras of Geelong and Brisbane were superior. Any neutral who wants a fourth for Geelong is just bitter about Hawthorn's success, plain and simple. And yes, Go Tigers! Or failing that, Go Crows!
Brayden Rise
Roar Pro
All the indicators point to a comfortable Cats win. My instincts say Tigers to win an epic final by 4 points with Caddy kicking the winning goal against his old side, Bombers to upset Sydney by 17, Crows and Port to both win comfortably.
Brayden Rise
Roar Pro
How would you feel coming up against the Bombers if the Tigers beat you and Essendon beat Sydney?