The five-years-from-now Bulldogs are scary as all hell

Was a disappointing 2017 season the end of the fairytale for the Western Bulldogs, or a bump in the road on the way to bigger and better things?

AFL list management series
18 – Brisbane Lions
17 – Gold Coast Suns
16 – Carlton Blues
15 – North Melbourne Kangaroos
14 – Fremantle Dockers
13 – Collingwood Magpies
12 – Hawthorn Hawks
11 – St Kilda Saints
9 – Melbourne Demons
8 – Essendon Bombers
7 – Port Adelaide Power
6 – West Coast Eagles
5 – Sydney Swans
4 – GWS Giants
3 – Geelong Cats

2017 in short

It was always going to be tough to back up a miracle run to the 2016 premiership and in the end the Bulldogs fell well short of it in 2017, ultimately missing finals.

They very rarely seemed to play the same kind of dominant football that they showed at times in previous years and it’s clear that there’s a need for this team to keep evolving in the game.

Still, this kind of ‘premiership hangover’ wasn’t entirely unexpected and they shouldn’t read too much into it. As we’ll discuss, other clubs have been through it before and come out well.

For a more comprehensive review of the Western Bulldogs’ 2017, read this piece by Stirling Coates.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Coach

It’s hard to believe that Luke Beveridge has only been in the gig for three years, as he has already achieved more than most coaches do in a decade.

Last year’s premiership has to be recognised as an incredible feat of coaching perhaps more than any other aspect of the game.

Beveridge is signed up until the end of 2020 and even though the Bulldogs missed finals this year that should not at all disrupt their faith in his ability to take them to the pointy end of the season many times again.

Captain

With Bob Murphy retiring this is currently a vacant position at the Bulldogs.

Marcus Bontempelli is the obvious choice to lead the club in the long term – he has already captained the club at AFL level in the absence of others and shows everything required for the job.

However, he is presently only 21, and the likely course of action will be to put Easton Wood, their 2016 premiership skipper (standing in for Bob Murphy), in the role for a few years until Bontempelli has developed further and is completely ready to shoulder the load.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

List management

If you were to look at the Western Bulldogs’ list in 2016 you would not have seen a likely premiership side in that year, and that is just one of the things that made their triumph so remarkable.

However what you do see now is a list stacked with young talent that should be contending in about five years time or so, which also has the leadership of several elite and respected veterans.

It is not uncommon at all in the AFL that a club might have little in the way of a middle tier but has some great vets and some great kids, and this dovetails nicely and produces a short-lived period of success.

However it’s very rare than this level of success goes as high as a flag, and usually requires a bizarre turn of events – like an incredible Geelong side flopping on grand final day 2008, or whatever pixie dust was sprinkled on September 2016.

Like the Hawks of ’08 the Dogs of ’16 have missed finals in the next year as the balance shifts, but, the other similarity they share is that there is much, much, much promise for the future on the list.

There’s a mix of talented players 26 and older on the Bulldogs list at the moment, but not many – given Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd (both 35) have retired, we’re now looking at Dale Morris (34), Liam Picken (31), Travis Cloke (30), Tory Dickson, Matthew Suckling, Stewart Crameri (29), Easton Wood (27), Jordan Roughead, Jack Redpath and Shane Biggs (all 26) in this age group.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

There’s some quality players in there, some who are mainstays of the team – Morris, Picken and Wood – but also a decent amount of them have spent some time in the VFL this year, and others who’ve been barely sighted at senior level at all.

Instead it is for the most part the 25-and-under group who are the genuine core of the Bulldogs team, and it’s not a surprise that a team centred around players this young would finish in the middle area of the ladder, regardless of talent.

We’re primarily talking here about Tom Liberatore, Luke Dahlhaus (both 25), Mitch Wallis, Jason Johanissen, Clay Smith, Lin Jong, Marcus Adams (all 24), Jake Stringer, Jackson Macrae (both 23), Lachie Hunter, Tom Boyd (both 22), Marcus Bontempelli, Toby McLean, Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale (all 21), Josh Dunkley, Tim English (both 20), Kieran Collins (19) and Lewis Young (18).

These are all players who have the potential to be above average or even elite in their positions and that list goes on so long that it’s not hard to understand why the Dogs’ youth is so highly related.

Imagine that team in 2022 when Luke Dahlhaus is a battle-hardened 30, Marcus Bontempelli just hititng his peak at 26, and the Dogs have had five years worth of draftees – or equivalent trades – to fill what few gaps there are. Terrifying.

What are those gaps? The Bulldogs could really use another top-grade key position player at either end of the ground, and two canny small or medium forwards wouldn’t go astray. Their midfield is pretty much built and already well-balanced.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Bulldogs players by age
Bob Murphy – 35yr 2mth
Matthew Boyd – 35yr
Dale Morris – 34yr 8mth
Liam Picken – 31yr 1mth
Travis Cloke – 30yr 5mth
Tory Dickson – 29yr 11mth
Matthew Suckling – 29yr 1mth
Stewart Crameri – 29yr
Easton Wood – 27yr 11mth
Jordan Roughead – 26yr 10mth
Jack Redpath – 26yr 8mth
Shane Biggs – 26yr
Tom Campbell – 25yr 10mth
Tom Liberatore – 25yr 3mth
Luke Dahlhaus – 25yr
Mitch Wallis – 24yr 10mth
Jason Johanissen – 24yr 9mth
Clay Smith – 24yr 3mth
Fletcher Roberts – 24yr 3mth
Lin Jong – 24yr 2mth
Marcus Adams – 24yr 2mth
Jake Stringer – 23yr 4mth
Jackson Macrae – 23yr 1mth
Joshua Prudden (R) – 22yr 11mth
Lachie Hunter – 22yr 8mth
Mitch Honeychurch – 22yr 6mth
Tom Boyd – 22yr
Marcus Bontempelli – 21yr 9mth
Toby McLean – 21yr 7mth
Lukas Webb – 21yr 5mth
Declan Hamilton – 21yr 5mth
Caleb Daniel – 21yr 1mth
Bailey Dale – 21yr 1mth
Roarke Smith (R) – 20yr 11mth
Zaine Cordy – 20yr 10mth
Josh Dunkley – 20yr 7mth
Nathan Mullenger-McHugh (R) – 20yr 3mth
Brad Lynch (R) – 20yr 1mth
Tim English – 20yr
Bailey Williams – 19yr 10mth
Kieran Collins – 19yr 8mth
Fergus Greene – 19yr 8mth
Tristan Tweedie (R) – 19yr 2mth
Patrick Lipinski – 19yr 1mth
Lewis Young – 18yr 8mth

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

To ensure that future happens the most important thing is to lock away contracts and keep the team together, as the Dogs have done so well this year, recently signing up the likes of Bailey Dale and Lukas Webb.

As a result they don’t really have any more out of contract players they would be particularly worried about and can instead turn their eye to the 2018 contract group and start looking to lock away some long-term signings there.

There don’t appear to be any particular flight risks, as the Bulldogs have created a team culture that people want to be a part of, but Kieran Collins, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore, Jackson Macrae and Jake Stringer will likely be the top five priorities.

Bulldogs players by contract status
2022
Jason Johanissen

2021
Tom Boyd

2020
Marcus Adams
Tim English
Easton Wood

2019
Marcus Bontempelli
Bailey Dale
Caleb Daniel
Josh Dunkley
Lachie Hunter
Patrick Lipinski
Toby McLean
Liam Picken
Jack Redpath
Fletcher Roberts
Lukas Webb
Bailey Williams
Lewis Young

2018
Shane Biggs
Tom Campbell
Travis Cloke
Kieran Collins
Zaine Cordy
Luke Dahlhaus
Tory Dickson
Fergus Greene
Lin Jong
Tom Liberatore
Jackson Macrae
Dale Morris
Jordan Roughead
Clay Smith
Jake Stringer
Matthew Suckling
Mitch Wallis

Out of contract
Matthew Boyd
Stewart Crameri
Declan Hamilton
Mitch Honeychurch
Nathan Mullenger-McHugh (R)
Bob Murphy
Brad Lynch (R)
Josh Prudden (R)
Roarke Smith (R)
Tristan Tweedie (R)

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Delistings and retirements

Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd have already announced their retirements, leaving Crameri, Honeychurch and Hamilton as the only senior-listers whose fate is yet to be decided.

Crameri and Honeychurch might both be on their way out of the club seeking greater opportunity, and neither would be a particularly big loss.

Hamilton hasn’t debuted in three years and didn’t really star in the VFL in 2017, so you’d suspect his AFL career may be about to end before it really began.

Free agency

All of the Dogs’ potential free agents have either re-signed with the club or retired.

In terms of players coming in, they’ve been recently linked to Jackson Trengove who at 26 would be a good fit for the club – he can bolster their key defender stocks while also providing a chop out in the ruck, or might even be asked to play the other way around.

They don’t seem to have any other likely free agency targets.

(AAP Image/David Mariuz)

Trade period

The Dogs were heavily linked to Adelaide’s Jake Lever for a while, with talk that they had offered him a long-term deal worth as much as $800,000 a season.

However, news surfaced a little while ago that Lever had reportedly ruled out the Dogs as a potential destination, and all the mail at the moment seems to be that he’s likely to join Melbourne.

That’s a shame as he would’ve been the ideal recruit – at only 21 years old he fits perfectly into the Bulldogs’ list build and would be someone they can build their backline around.

If there’s even still a sniff of a chance of bringing him across, I’d say he’s worth throwing the kitchen sink at.

Draft

First three rounds: 9, 27, 40.

Should someone like Jack Higgins still be available at the Bulldogs’ first pick then he’d be an excellent addition as an undersized goal-kicking midfielder who would presumably start his career as a small forward – so long as the Dogs don’t feel he’s too similar to Caleb Daniel and Luke Dahlhaus.

It wouldn’t surprise to see him already off the board by this point though. If that’s the case then Western Australian key defender Aaron Naughton could be a good pick to keep the backline well-stocked for the future.

Outlook

After winning the flag in 2008 the Hawks had to wait until 2012 to make the decider again, and 2013 before they won another one – it wouldn’t surprise me if the Bulldogs face a simillar wait, but if they play their cards right, they also have a similar chance of success.

The key things over the next few years will be to build up the ideal structure of their forward and back lines.

A big play for one of Gold Coast’s forwards in the next two years would be a wise move, whether that’s Tom J Lynch as a free agent next year, or Peter Wright when he comes out of contract at 2019. Either one would make an excellent long-term partner for Tom Boyd and allow Jake Stringer to be a dangerous third tall rather than have to play as the Dogs’ main target.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

Small forwards will also be a priority but these are usually better found through the draft than from other clubs, and the Dogs can build their key defender stocks through the draft as well unless a desirable target is suddenly on the market.

In the end, if Bulldogs fans can have some patience – and we know from experience that of course they can – they will be well rewarded before too long.