Redemption is what’s on the line for Richmond when they go up against Geelong in a qualifying final at the MCG tonight.
Geelong vs Richmond AFL Finals live scores and blog
Redemption for Alex Rance, the best backman in the league, who despite that title was somehow slaughtered by a 31-year-old Harry Taylor last time these clubs played.
Redemption for the Tigers of 2017, who lost that match to Geelong despite the Cats having three of their best five players out.
Redemption for the Richmond Football Club of the 21st century, who haven’t given their fans a reason to cheer in September since 2001.
However, there’s a fair bit else on the line as well for both clubs, because the winner of this match has a golden ticket to the grand final, while the loser faces disaster.
The winner will have an MCG prelim final date in two weeks against one of GWS, Port Adelaide or West Coast – all sides that the Cats or Tigers would go in with confidence against.
The loser will, most likely, go into a sudden-death semi-final against the frankly quite scary Sydney Swans. Gulp.
Geelong, aside from the 2011 triumph, have a relatively poor finals record under Chris Scott, and fans will start asking questions if they can’t make it to the big dance from this position.
Richmond, well, they’ve had more media coverage ahead of this finals series than every other team combined – the AFL world is achingly waiting for them to make a splash.
Last five matches
Round 21, 2017 – Geelong Cats 11.14.80 defeated Richmond Tigers 9.12.66
Round 21, 2016 – Richmond Tigers 12.6.78 defeated by Geelong Cats 10.22.82
Round 5, 2015 – Richmond Tigers 11.10.76 defeated by Geelong Cats 12.13.85
Round 7, 2014 – Geelong Cats 11.15.81 defeated Richmond Tigers 12.4.76
Round 6, 2013 – Richmond Tigers 13.9.87 defeated by Geelong Cats 20.11.131
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Geelong Cats
IN: Joel Selwood, Zach Guthrie
OUT: Daniel Menzel (Omitted), Wylie Buzza (Omitted)B: Tom Stewart, Tom Lonergan, Jed Bews
HB: Zach Tuohy, Lachie Henderson, Jake Kolodjashnij
C: Andrew Mackie, Joel Selwood, Mark Blicavs
HF: Jordan Murdoch, Harry Taylor, Steven Motlop
F: Brandan Parfitt, Tom Hawkins, James Parsons
FOL: Zac Smith, Patrick Dangerfield, Cameron Guthrie
I/C: Mitch Duncan, Zach Guthrie, Sam Menegola, Scott Selwood
EMG: Wylie Buzza, Daniel Menzel, Jackson ThurlowRichmond Tigers
IN: Josh Caddy
OUT: Oleg Markov (Omitted)B: Brandon Ellis, Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes
HB: Bachar Houli, David Astbury, Nick Vlastuin
C: Kamdyn McIntosh, Trent Cotchin, Jacob Townsend
HF: Kane Lambert, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
F: Dan Butler, Jack Riewoldt, Daniel Rioli
FOL: Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia, Shaun Grigg
I/C: Josh Caddy, Jack Graham, Nathan Broad, Jason Castagna
EMG: Sam Lloyd, Shaun Hampson, Oleg Markov
Dustin vs Dangerfield
Likely the top two players in the Brownlow count this year, certainly the top two midfielders in the game – watching these two go head to head is the stuff finals footy is made of.
Both have that remarkable combination of incredible strength, a nip of speed (or more than a nip in Dangerfield’s case), and serious finishing ability around the goals.
One would expect both coaches try to put a negating player on the other, but for the sake of footy spectacle, here’s hoping we see them go toe-to-toe at some point tonight.
Whichever one has the most impact on the game may well guide their side to victory.
Will the Cats regret harsh call on Menzel?
Geelong don’t have many noted goalkickers in their team – Tom Hawkins can be relied on to bag a few more often that not, but that’s about it.
That being the case, it is all the more surprising that Geelong would, on the eve of finals, drop Daniel Menzel, who has kicked 38 goals for the club in 2017 – second only to Hawkins, and equal with Patrick Dangerfield.
He has played seventeen AFL games this year, and has kicked at least two goals in fourteen of them, a remarkably consistent forward impact.
The knock on him is that he just doesn’t provide the level of forward pressure the Cats are after. And in finals, it can be more important to be a reliable part of the structure than simply to be capable of individual brilliance.
Still, expect the fans to raise hell if the Cats struggle to make things work on the scoreboard and miss out by a small margin.
Josh Caddy against his old club
A player who moves clubs always wants to be on the right side of the divide and that’s got to be even more true when it’s a high-stakes final like this.
It’s fair to say that in 114 games so far Josh Caddy hasn’t been the player many thought he would be, and while he’s only just hitting his peak, you’d love for him to announce his genuine arrival as an AFL star right here and now.
This year he has averaged 17 touches and just under a goal a game for the Tigers – down in both categories compared to his form for the Cats last year.
But all that can be forgotten in a minute if he makes it his moment tonight.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Prediction
This one’s honestly close to a no-lose scenario for neutral fans.
If Richmond win, well, what a thing it will be to see, and even the most strident of Tiger-haters will find it hard not to be swept up in their fans’ jubilation and passion.
If Richmond lose, we can once again have a good chuckle about how the frustration really never does seem to end for them and their fanbase.
I’d love to see the former – for one thing, it would set up a likely grand final between two teams neither of whom have won a flag in a good while.
However, the Cats have won thirteen in a row over the Tigers, and I’d wager the confidence and finals experience they’ll bring to this one will get them over theline.
Geelong Cats to win by 12 points.
When: 7:50pm AEST, Friday 8 September
Where: MCG
TV: Seven, live, Fox Footy, live
Betting: Geelong $1.80, Richmond $2.05
Head-to-head: Geelong 103, Richmond 85, Drawn 3
Last five: Geelong 5, Richmond 0
In finals: Geelong 2, Richmond 7