In an interesting subplot to the 2017 NRL finals the previous two premiers, Cronulla and North Queensland, go head to head in one of this week’s elimination finals.
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While the Cowboys are low on troops and had to rely on St George Illawarra losing to the Bulldogs just to make the finals, they’ll head to Allianz Stadium with hopes of causing an upset. But can they beat the Sharks, or are the reigning champs a sure thing to qualify for Week 2?
Since the NRL moved away from the McIntyre final eight system in 2012 a team that finished eighth has never beaten a team that finished fifth.
Not that the eighth-placed team fared any better in the McIntyre system, winning only twice against the minor premiers, with Parramatta beating St George Illawarra in 2009 and the Warriors beating Melbourne in 2008. The Warriors made it to the preliminary final that year, whereas Parramatta were defeated in the grand final.
In a more telling blow the Cowboys are winless in six finals matches played at Allianz Stadium dating back to 2007. Two of those defeats have come against Cronulla, including the 32-20 loss in last year’s preliminary final.
North Queensland’s only defeat in a finals campaign came in their 2015 premiership-winning season, when they thrashed the Sharks 39-0 at 1300SMILES Stadium.
That’s not to say the Cowboys have no chance of walking out of Allianz Stadium with their arms raised.
Nine members of the squad named to start also started in their 2015 grand final victory over Brisbane, so they certainly have big-game experience. Players such as Michael Morgan and Jason Taumalolo are proven game-changers and game-winners.
A fifth-place finish has removed the aura a defending champion should have heading into the finals, and with only 4000 tickets sold to Sharkies fans, gone is the intimidation factor a home side should have in such a big game.
In the NRL era only five reigning champions have made it to the preliminary finals before being eliminated, and only twice have they made the grand final the following year – both examples ending in losses – so it’s also fair to say that not much fortune is in Cronulla’s favour. Regardless, it’s going to be interesting to see how it goes down.
So can Paul Green’s men defy history and progress to Week 2 of the finals, or will history repeat itself and have North Queensland watching the rest of the finals from the comfort of their own homes?
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I expect Sharks to win but it won't be easy- Sharks then to play Parra in week 2(Storm should beat Parra) and that winner then plays the Roosters in week 3 for a place in the GF- At this stage the GF looks like Storm vs either Roosters/Parra/Sharks- Broncos should beat the winner of Manly Vs Penrith but no chance against the Storm to reach the GF