An intriguing week of finals ends where it began, with Port Adelaide hosting the eighth placed West Coast Eagles on a ground they’ve historically played well. Can Port Adelaide overcome their perceived struggles against the best sides in the competition?
Port Adelaide vs West Coast AFL Finals live scores and blog
That is something of a loaded question. Is West Coast one of the best sides in the competition? They made the eight, but by the skin of their collective teeth, and have a similarly poor record against the best in class to Port Adelaide. Tonight’s game has been described across the internet as the flat track bullies against the downhill skiers.
Port are the bullies. The Power have eviscerated the worst of the competition this season, putting up a net margin of +51 points per game against teams that finished outside the top eight.
By contrast, their net margin against teams that finished inside the top eight was -18.6. Their near-70 point differential is far and away the worst in the league – the next largest difference is Gold Coast at 43.9 points.
West Coast are the skiers. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the competition at scoring and stopping teams from scoring when they get the game on their own terms.
(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)
If West Coast get a little bit of time and space, their skills and structures can hang with the best of them.
But they’ve been figured out, and get less time to play their way by the week. Opponents simply apply pressure in tight and man up across the ground, and West Coast are done.
That’s what Port Adelaide do. Their high pressing ways have been key to their revival in 2017, as Paddy Ryder’s stoppage artistry combines with an across-ground flexibility that makes the Power better than the sum of their parts.
In 2017, the Power have an average inside 50 differential of +8.4 per game – second only to the Adelaide Crows who do everything well.
But like their margin, the difference between Port’s press performance against finalists and non-finalists is stark.
Against the bottom 10, Port Adelaide has recorded a staggering +19.3 inside 50 differential per game. Against the top eight, their differential collapses to -7.3 per game. But there’s devil in the detail.
Port Adelaide recorded an inside 50 differential of -50 against the Adelaide Crows in Round 20, which skews their top eight number significantly.
However on the other side, the Power recorded two substantially positive inside 50 differentials against the Eagles in their two games this season, of +29 (Round Seven) and +18 (Round 16) respectively. Lies, damn lies and all that.
The first game between the two sides was the infamous game of kick to kick in West Coast’s defensive 50. The Eagles parked the bus, so to speak, and absorbed an abundance of Port Adelaide pressure.
West Coast rolled the dice to slice their way through the Power’s press, and created enough scoring opportunities while muddying up Port Adelaide’s forward line to eventually win out.
This is West Coast’s path to victory this evening. The Eagles will have to replicate the game plan that has served them well against Port Adelaide in the past.
Otherwise, Port Adelaide’s press will suffocate them, because their midfield will not be up to generating the territory required to put up a winning score.
Unlike the other games this round, it is that simple for the Eagles. If Port Adelaide are committed to their scheme and bring some inside heat, West Coast will fold.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
The Eagles have gone in with an unchanged line up from their last start, although there is plenty of noise about that Sharrod Wellingham could be a late in to help bolster the defensive end of the ground – there is no irony intended in that statement.
Port Adelaide has made one change, with Jarman Impey making his way into the line up, with youngster Aidyn Johnson left out.
West Coast has three tall defenders in their back six, and Brad Sheppard and Shannon Hurn playing as mid sized stoppers with a bias to aerial play. Adding Wellingham to the mix would result in a defensive unit lacking much by way of ground ball play, making the Eagles’ intentions abundantly clear.
Will it work? Port Adelaide will know what’s coming, and will plan appropriately. Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard should spend plenty of time inside the forward 50 arc, and the Power can overcome West Coast’s defence first mindset by resisting the temptation to kick long to their tall forwards.
Like today’s early game, there seems to be a lot of talk about how West Coast can win it, rather than genuine assessments of whether this is possible. Lightning won’t strike twice – Port coach Ken Hinkley won’t allow it.
Port Adelaide will win this evening, by around four goals. That’s my AFL Finals forecast, what’s yours?
Mark
Guest
It's easy to talk after the event, Ryan , you are an economist and I will make sure I will avoid your business if I still want my money. West Coast played easily their best game this year and you didn't see that coming. You missed their will to win but also too important to imagine you also missed that Adelaide oval and Subiaco are identically shaped. WCE have torn apart teams on that ground. They are trying to play games on grounds other than this ground because need to dominate elsewhere.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
3-1, with the one playing out exactly as I described and needing a kick after the siren in extra time to sort out a winner? I think you're nothing more than a troll Geoff and I will be letting the powers that be know that the sum total of your contribution to this community is a sick obsession with taking pot shots at me and others.
Jack Roger
Guest
How right you were!! what a game...
Vijay
Guest
Who all the star players in this game and what is the perfect 9 players from both teams
Ditto
Guest
Sorry Brendon, but I think you're over valueing the quality of youth on your list, Although I think D.Howard shows good signs I'm not sure why you would compare him to J.Lever who has played 50+ games, Howard has played less than 10. Lever has had an enormous impact on the competition, Howard virtually none, you do know that they're the same age ? Players like Amon, Austin, Johnson, Byrne-Jones, Houston look like jobbers to me. SPP is a good pick, but all clubs can point to having some good young players. Scared ? Don't think so.
BigAl
Guest
Each of these teams should be going in to this game saying to themselves " you beauty ! we're up against the softest team in the finals by a mile !! "
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Much has been made of Port's inability to beat current finalists this year, and terms like bullies and skiers have been thrown around, however they have beaten Sydney, in Sydney, WC in Perth and went down to Geelong by 2 after Dangerfield nailed a goal with 25 seconds to go at Skilled, I think the perception is slightly harsh, I'll acknowledge it could be better but I'm quietly confidant going into this game. Port needs to lower their eyes and I think they've figured that out judging by the way they played when the teams last met, their game plan this year has been to lock the ball in the forward half and create stoppages, Port are the number 1 team in the comp at scoring from stoppages, so if Port can lock it in and deny Kennedy, Lecras and Darling the ball they should win comfortably, WC don't have the pace or the stoppage power to go with them. People look at WC's form in Adelaide, but I went to the last game and if Port had of kicked straight that game would have been over at half time. I think Hinkley is aware that it's going to be tough to win the Premiership this year, but if they can make a prelim and put on a show next year is looking very bright, the group is still very young and there's talent on every line, our back six tonight has two key position players that have played about 30 games between them, Port could become a scary proposition in the near future if all goes to plan. People rave about Jake Lever, but wait until young Dougal Howard gets another pre-season into him, 199cm and one of the quickest guys at the club, he has so much potential, also, it was only SPP's first year, scary stuff. Port by 37
Lroy
Guest
No interstate side will be keen on playing Richmond in Melbourne so maybe the draw will fall the Eagles way if they can win tonight ;-) Tackling tackling tackling, some of their best results in the last couple of years have come on the back of a heavy tackling load, Hawks in the prelim a couple of years ago was my favorite example, but the Cats this year is also a good case. That's why I'm a big fan of Hutchings, he gets stuck in, no messing around, he just goes hard and gets amongst it week in week out ;-)
Pelican
Guest
West Coast too old and slow. Port by 24
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
The GWS look fragile and if ever there was a chance to sneak into the GF, this side of the draw is the place to be. The WCE now have an opportunity to make amends for their poor performance in the 2015 GF. They just need to bring the same sort of pressure that they did against Geelong in Round 13 when they had 155 contested possessions, 93 tackles and 59 inside 50. A game they won without JK and should have won by more if it wasn't for their poor kicking and 17 points. Having said that - RICH look scary!!!
Lroy
Guest
You know what, I prefer that prediction to mine... :-)
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
Nah, JK will maul his opponent and kick a bag. JD playing his 150th should see him run a muck playing high HF. Sheed likes Adelaide oval and will rack up a lot of possessions and be the conduit through the midfield into the WCE forward 50. WCE by 45 pts.
Lroy
Guest
Wellingham would be a great addition, when he is on song hes great to watch. He's made a few clangers this year (which is unlike him), which is why he went back to the WAFL, but if he can hit a target he'll be a handy guy to have around. he could even play in the forward line in a straight swap for Partington, he knows how to kick a goal so that's where I'd have him. Eagles lost a number of games they should of won, but they didn't lose them per se, the opposition did something amazing in the finals minutes to win it. Nobody blew them of the park in that bad run of losses, with a smidgin of luck they could have won another 3-4 games this year. So this should be the game of the round I think, it will go down to the wire and I honestly couldn't predict a winner.