Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers: AFL Finals Forecast

Last time the Swans hosted the Bombers, we were treated to one of the most pulsating ends to a game this season. At face value it’s unlikely this afternoon’s elimination final will get to a place where that’ll be possible again.

Sydney led Essendon by 24 points at the 23-minute mark of the third quarter in their Round 14 match at the SCG.

Sydney vs Essendon AFL Finals live scores and blog

Then the away side got on an almighty run, throwing caution to the wind and attacking with fast, direct football. The Dons put up nine of the next ten scoring shots – 44 points to one point – to lead the game by 19 with less than six minutes left on the game clock.

Then amazing, extraordinary things happened – mostly extraordinarily bad things from a Bombers perspective. It culminated in a Sydney forward-50 stoppage win, a scrub kick to their goal square, a mark by Gary Rohan in said goal square, and a winning goal as time expired. Words can’t do it justice.

It should have never happened. Twice. The Swans were comfortably in the lead before flames began spurting from the heads of Essendon’s entire team; The Bombers were comfortably in the lead before they did everything they could to lose.

Belying the bizarre finish was an underlying victory for the Swans on almost every count. They had plenty more scoring shots (31-25), contested possessions (147-133), fewer turnovers (77-82), and won the stoppage (36-30) and time in possession (+4.7 minutes) battles comfortably.

Essendon, as has been their way this season, made the most of their fast break opportunities and broke even on inside 50s (51-52 in their favour), but that was about it.

So, even though the Dons ‘lost by five points on a kick after the siren’ last time out, there is almost no chance of a similar series of events unfolding (now that I’ve said that, put your house on Sydney by five points).

Sydney are the heaviest favourite in Week 1 of the finals, and for good cause. Despite their path to the last game of the year, the Swans are one of the favourites for the premiership simply because they are one of the best teams still in it.

The Swans missed the starter’s gun, but since Round 7 have been the number one attacking and defensive side, according to my Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Ratings. They’ve scored 102.4 points per game, and conceded just 66.1 points per game. A 14-2 record has followed.

The biggest difference between the first six and second 16 games for the Swans is their outside work. In the first part of the season, they took just 67.5 uncontested marks per game; that’s up to 83.1 between Round 7 and the end of the season. Sydney had allowed the contested, inside part of their game to overrule the outside pace and space, and they were being closed down.

Round 7 to 23 has seen a more balanced Sydney, and they’ve played more like the team we all expected in the preseason.

Essendon were a little tougher to get a handle on before the year got underway, but as they worked their way to 12 wins it emerged they had a need for speed. That was what got them into the game in Round 14, and what they’ll need to use to hang with Sydney this afternoon.

Helping that will be Orazio Fantasia, who is back in the team after overcoming a hamstring injury. The structurally-critical Michael Hurley is also back, but tall forward foil Cale Hooker hasn’t managed to get up, with bone bruising affecting an undisclosed location in his leg.

Sydney have made three changes: swapping Kurt Tippet for Sam Naismith, Tom Papley for Will Hayward, and Dan Hannebery for Harry Cunningham. The home side will play with two recognised ruckmen to the visitors’ one, although Callum Sinclair has played more as a deep marking target to help create space for Lance Franklin at centre half forward for the Swans.

The absence of Hooker looms as a critical challenge for Essendon to overcome. Sydney are the best team in the competition at nullifying opposition forwards, and will surely park Heath Grundy on Joe Daniher all night. Dane Rampe will float around, loosely manning the mobile and generally high-playing James Stewart. Nick Smith will live inside the skin of Fantasia.

Sydney’s finals-hardened midfield will collide with the very promising but inexperienced Essendon crew. The trio of Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker – who looks like Luke Parker again – and Hannebery will hit the Dons unit hard. It’s one of the reasons so much has been made of Jobe Watson’s role in the game by the football media this week; Essendon need him to throw his frame around at stoppages.

The Bombers will need to perform well when the game turns attritional, to open up the opportunities for their pacey midfield. Sydney can play fast, but their personnel are not fast, if that makes sense? The Swans’ pace comes from quick disposal and hair-trigger decision making; the routines built over years of playing together.

Unfortunately for Essendon fans, I just don’t see it. Sydney built their way back up to their absolute best football over the second and third thirds of the season, and on their home ground look a level above the Bombers.

But hey, it’s a free hit, and that quarter and a bit of football from two months ago shows it is possible. The rational brain says turning that quarter of brilliance into four quarters is too much to ask.

So it’s Sydney, in a comfortable, 30-point win, that is more likely to be larger than smaller.

That’s my AFL Finals forecast, what’s yours?