Nine of the greatest upsets in AFL-VFL history

Geelong’s recent (and completely unexpected) defeat of Sydney in the 2017 semi-finals got me thinking about the greatest upsets in the history of the VFL/AFL.

I decided to stick with the grand finals, as they are the most consequential

In order of least to most surprising, they are as follows.

9. 1998 North Melbourne v Adelaide
Everything was set up for a North Melbourne victory. They were the highest credentialed team of that era (as their 1999 premiership confirmed), they had qualified comfortably for the grand final, whereas Adelaide had again managed to qualify from the middle rungs of the final eight after losing their initial final.

The previous year’s premiership, while noteworthy, was against a club (St Kilda) with a history of complete failure. North Melbourne, in contrast, was the real deal.

It was all going according to plan until North Melbourne opened the door with a succession of terrible shots for goal in the second quarter. Adelaide’s extraordinary comeback in the second half is still considered unfathomable, except that it was masterminded by perhaps football’s greatest genius in Malcolm Blight

8. 1982 Richmond v Carlton
This game has increasingly gone down in folklore as the day that Richmond’s powerful era (abruptly) ended.

But at the time it was considered one of the great shocks of football. Carlton’s record in finals against the vigorous Richmond was quite lamentable since being pulverised in the 1973 grand final. Their poor performance in the preliminary final against Hawthorn only added to the certainty that Richmond would win (interestingly former Tiger Kevin Sheedy’s Bombers had also been able to deal comfortably with Carlton during this period through the application of vigour).

But the rain’s came down for virtually the first time during the year (that was a drought!) on the day of the game, and Carlton proceeded to overcome their great nemesis and usher in the great fall of the house of Richmond.

7. 2008 Geelong v Hawthorn
The most recent of great upsets. The reigning premiers, Geelong was 21 and one in the equal second greatest season (after Collingwoods 1929 season) on record. But a nemesis from the past (1989 grand final; the famous 1989 round six match; 1991 semifinal) was rising.

It was expected to be an entertaining game as both teams played a more vibrant style of football than Sydney in particular. But no less than a five-goal victory was the expected margin. But in one of the great coaching performances, Hawthorn’s Alastair Clarkson picked apart Geelong’s game (not helped by Geelong’s North Melbournesque 1998 kicking for at goal) for a stunning result.

The ripple effect’s of this game are still felt up to nearly ten year’s later (The Kennett Curse; The 2013 preliminary final; Isaac Smith’s miss on the siren in the 2016 finals).

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

6. 1948 Essendon v Melbourne
Essendon entered the grand final as a far superior team. This was based on their record during the home & away season, plus their demolition of Melbourne in the Semi-Final (not to forget their demolition of Melbourne on grand final day in 1946). But Melbourne had brought out of retirement at the age of 33, their ex-great, the eight-Fingered Jack Mueller, for the preliminary final.

In a performance that rivalled Gary Ablett Snr’s in 1989, he went on a goal-scoring spree of eight, six, and six that propelled Melbourne to an unbelievable Premiership. But three games you say? Where was the extra game plucked from?

Well, to add to the incredible nature of what occurred, the grand final was a draw! And the score makes for incredible reading. Melbourne 10.9 – Essendon 7.27!

This appeared to deflate Essendon so much, that they were comfortably defeated in the replay.

5. 1972 Richmond v Carlton
As much as the 1982 premiership victory by Carlton was a shock, 1972 was an even greater surprise. Coming into this game between the two powerhouses of the era, Carlton had not beaten Richmond in a final since 1920, That was ten losses straight.

Carlton’s coaching hierarchy’s decision to put all their big guns up forward reaped rewards of unimaginable scoring. Richmond equalled the highest grand final score ever without even looking like winning as Carlton went on to score 28.9.

4. 1970 Collingwood v Carlton
The most famous of all upsets but not the greatest in my opinion. Carlton had managed to get within ten points of Collingwood in the semi-final and had easily disposed of St Kilda in the preliminary final.

Everyone remembered the dismantling of Carlton by Collingwood in the Round 19 match, but it was at Victoria Park. It was the margin at halftime that initiated the post-match hysteria that will never end.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

3. 1900 Fitzroy v Melbourne
In the early days of the VFL, the greatest problem that appeared was how to complete the season. The tradition of a final match to deliver the outcome had started to permeate all codes, but how to reach that climax was proving utterly problematic.

The 1898 to 1900 season’s had the ridiculous situation where a full round of Home & Away matches counted for nearly nothing. Only the top team benefitted. Coming last was no worse than coming second and Melbourne, who came sixth, proceeded to win all three postseason ‘sectional games’ and then defeated top team Fitzroy in the deciding match.

2.1958 Melbourne v Collingwood
A challenge to 1970 for most famous of upsets, but in my opinion, it was the greater upset. Melbourne, unlike Collingwood in 1970, was the reigning triple premiers (and they would, of course, win the next two as well), plus they had easily accounted for Collingwood in, not only the semi-final but in the 1955 and 1956 grand finals.

At quarter time, they led by three goals before Collingwood played two quarters of incredible wet weather football to deny Melbourne that record-equalling fourth in a row premiership. Of course, Collingwood’s next 32 years of Colliwobble’s just added to this legend. But, the greatest upset of all time? I do not believe so.

1. 1916 Carlton v Fitzroy
A strange year of football had a remarkable conclusion.

In hindsight, the season should not probably have gone ahead. There were only four teams and the VFL in their infinite wisdom decided that they would stick with a final four.

Fitzroy, after a strong start, realised that they may as well play dead until the real stuff starts in August (finals time back then was winter). They lost nine in a row and accepted the wooden spoon. Having lulled everyone into a false sense of superiority, they then proceeded to win every match in the finals, including two easy victories over top of the table Carlton. Of course, there was no grand plan. Just a crazy season decided by the craziest of results)

Special Mention
As for semifinal upsets, the most consequential of all time was the 1999 preliminary final of Carlton over Essendon. The finals systems in place up to the final eight was introduced had more opportunities for upsets to be redeemed by the unexpected loser. Essendon never got that second chance.