AFL draft analysis: Brisbane Lions

Hi Maddy, I think the Lions have got themselves in a great position for this year’s draft holding picks 1, 15, 18, 40, 44, 52. I have a feeling that they will go with either Davies-Uniacke or Dow with Pick 1. They have shown a leaning towards going with the Victorian Country rather than Victorian Metro kids in the past 3 drafts and I don’t see that strategy changing this year. There is a two-fold benefit with this being that the Vic Country kids typically have not lived in Melbourne for any great length of time (or at all if they didn’t board) and most will be known to each other through the Representative Games from the current or previous years. Both those players are ready to go for debuts in Round 1. Rayner to me is a risk the Lions don’t need with Pick 1 as I feel he will leave as soon as a big VIC Club comes calling in 2019. He is saying the right things in the media but so did Jake Lever and that was a guy leaving a strong Club in an AFL city. I would think with Pick 15 they would consider any of Charlie Constable, Lochie O’Brien or Ed Richards. Hopefully O’Brien with elite endurance and left foot will make his way to the Club (and he is Vic Country also). I suspect that they will need to utilize Pick 18 on Connor Ballenden from the their academy, which will go a long way to relieving the issue of Schache walking out the door (after again saying all the right things in his draft year). Hopefully Ballenden can show the same zeal and appetite as Eric Hipwood and they can build around a QLD Forward Line for the next decade. Charlie Cameron was a good acquisition (although Pick 12 was probably overs) and he will need to kick somewhere in the vicinity of 30 goals next season to justify the price paid. I hope that Andrews, McStay, Gardiner, Cox, Witherden and Skinner (when fit) learn as much as they can from Hodge on everything from how to position themselves to distribution from the backline to set up quality attacking forays into the Lions 50. Picks over 40 are a lottery so I think they simply need to go with what they consider the best kid available at those picks (if they even use them all).

You're forgetting that Chris Fagan and Luke Hodge are a highly successful team and Brisbane will play however Fagan, the senior coach tells them to, no? FWIT, Luke Hodge is hard at the ball, excellent disposal, and a left footer .......

Hodge and Fagan were lynch pins in the coaching and development of Hawthorn through 4 premierships. Hard to see either acquisition being less than good news for Brisbane, and I think you need to consider them as a team; but not sure how can you "read" anything into a look on a footy field ...... TMitch came 1st, Hodge came 3rd in the club's B&F this year, Hodge's best is well behind him, but he does have substantial, recent credibility and if he can impart a skerrick of leadership to the cohort, it'll be worth it. Certainly won't be the bust that Ablett was at Gold Coast.

I'm basing this on Hodge not just being your average 4 premiership player. He was captain for 3 of those flags and led by example on and off the field. I'm basing it on him having a very strong bond with Fagan having seen him as a mentor since 2010. They have very open and honest lines of communication. I'm basing it on his ability to adapt and master every knew game plan Clarkson threw his way. I'm basing it on the vast improvement of the Hawks young backline as the 2017 season wore on and his role in that. I'm basing it on the impressionable kids in the Lions backline who will lap up everthing he says. As examples i would cite Stevie J and Heath Shaw at GWS, James Kelly at the Bombers. I'm not sure if Burgoyne and Lake coming to the Hawks count. But they fulfilled the roles they were recruited for to great success. I'm not expecting the Lions to suddenly burst in to finals but i do believe Hodge will leave a lasting mark on all and sundry.

'playing Mitchell and Priddis unbalanced the team' That is your subjective opinion. Objectively, the numbers say otherwise.

What are you basing this on, Mick? Is there some history of this sort of move working? Some evidence or anecdote or logical train of thought? Luke Hodge knows Hawthorn's structures and positioning. Are Brisbane trying to play like Hawthorn? They lack the footskills, left footers and hardness at the ball. You might be able to argue that just having a 4 time premiership player there telling the other players that they are just as good as the Hawks might give them a self-confidence boost. But surely you could just recruit any ex-player for that.

Thanks, Steven. Mediation sessions sounds lovely. Not wonder Lions did not increase the offer. I hope you're right that Hodge still got it. I guess in worst scenario he will just coach. I would like to see both QLD clubs improving next year.

Thats dead on the money. Hodge's role is to teach structure, positioning, culture and attitude. He's not there to win games. He will inspire confidence and competitiveness. The results won't show straight away but by mid 2019 the Lions will be a very hard team to play against.

Mitchell at the Eagles was a completely different scenario, they were going all in for the flag. Totally misguided as playing Mitchell and Priddis unbalanced the team. Hodges role is very clear. If his form drops off I don't think he'll play.

Yes George. From what I understand - during Rockliff's captaincy and further drifting into 2017 - there were several/ongoing mediation sessions between Rockliff, various team mates and club management. All in a bid to resolve certain conflicts. And to Rockcliff's credit, he admitted to be a divisive personality. But, that certainly required some work on behalf of management to improve team harmony. That's what I was referring to re 'high maintenance'. To your point - the mature recruits have perhaps been the greatest blight on Brisbane over recent years. Christensen, Bastinac, Bell, Robinson, Beams etc. have all missed a lot of football - with injuries and form. Hodge will deliver. He's never been a quick player. So no downside there. He's always played on guile, courage, skill and smarts - all still alive and well.

Could you elaborate on 'greater drain on resources' in case of Rockcliff? Just curious what could be additional resources? He was settled in Brisbane. I would understand with Schache. Rockcliff was very good last year and showed courage by playing with injured shoulder for almost a half season. Brisbane will miss him unless Christensen and Mitch Robinson will come back strong from injuries. Young players are still not there, a couple of injuries to experience players could spell a trouble. Hodge is great source of experience/advice, not sure about his on field effort. He actually could be a bit liability as he slowed down significantly.

Football clubs are no different to any organisation. Ultimately its about allocating limited resources in the most efficient and effective way. From what I am told - Rockcliff and Schache were high maintenance and a far greater drain on resources than you might expect from two players on a list of 40. Conversely, Hodge and Cameron, will give more than they take. Lions on the rise again. Stay tuned.

For me, the last few flags have been won by the entire playing group having that unyielding belief they can win it. Generally inspired by the coach but Murphy definitely helped the Dogs. And, Special moments like the Bonts. Or Cotchins kamikaze tackle for a turnover. Or Cyril Rioli's first quarter. Or Hodge's whole game in '08. Buy in from the group and 100% commitment is the key to the flag but you definitely need moments of genius from champions.

I'm not sure where this idea that an over-the-hill champion from another team can magically make your club better in a season came from. Did it work for the Eagles or the Demons? Good luck to the Lions next season. Hope we can hear them roar.

That play of Bont was awesome and although there were many moments during the Dogs final series that one sticks out for me. I believe that there is not much separating the top teams and it all comes down to a certain contest in a pressure final with one player stepping up and taking control.Hodge has been one of the best at this and i also believe its the reason Hawks won 4.

It was Mitchell's first year at the club. Where did he place in the BnF? Was that because Hodge showed him how to do it? That play of Bonts was totally awesome by the way!! There's a reason that kid is a superstar. I wonder if Bob Murphy told him to do that?

I'm a little less convinced about the Hodge move. When he was miked up for the Adelaide game this year, there was a point when he went off at Tom Mitchell about where he thought Mitchell should have been positioned at a stoppage, Mitchell gave him a look that suggested that he wasn't overly appreciative of the advise being given. This isn't a club that he's won 4 premierships playing for and I think he needs to be careful about to whom and how much advise he's dishing out, especially if he can't cut it in the playing stakes. That moment in the 2016 final series when Bontempelli made him look foolish marked the end for Hodge as a player, I know The Bont can do that to anyone, but Hodge isn't just anyone. In 2017 if you had no knowledge of his history you would have said that his best attribute as a player was that he was trying hard. Is that enough ?

I've thought Dow would be a great pick too and i wont be surprised if the Lions take him or LD-U. But with Cameron coming in the list already has plenty of pace: Cox, Allison, Zorko, Taylor, Hipwood. A game breaker of Reyners potential is worth the punt. And if he reaches it he'll put bums on seats too. Its really a choice of the next Dusty, JPK or Josh Kelly. Cant go wrong really

The inclusion of Hodge should fix all that. There were some great photos after the Hawks '15 flag of the players holding up fingers of the flags they had won. Lots of 3's but there was a core group that got together that all held up 4. Hodge will instill in the young group that sticking together will breed success. McCluggage is the last key signing they need to lock away their future.

Let's hope for the Lions that they choose wisely. We need all the assistance we can get. The club needs stability then improvement. Hopefully the good youngsters will stay. That's a BIG IF though.