Almandin was our 2017 Melbourne Cup tip, but after a shocking ride in that race, the ex-German stayer finds himself in the Group 2 Zipping Classic (2400m) at Sandown on Saturday.
Frankie Dettori gave Almandin such a wide run that he covered an extra 22m of ground, according to official Trakus data. That’s no more than loose change over 3200m, but considering the horse finished 11.2L off the winner, Almandin could’ve been finishing much higher.
Bygones are bygones but Almandin has shorted from an early $3.50 chance into $2.50 for the $300k Zipping Classic, which is run at weight-for-age conditions, and not a handicap. Almandin just wins on his best, but his best has suddenly disappeared.
The market says he faces two main rivals in the field of eight: Big Duke, who ran a huge (yuge!) fourth in the Melbourne Cup, and The Taj Mahal.
Big Duke put in a slashing run in the Cup, at his absolute best for trainer Darren Weir in the race. Despite seven runs this preparation, including the Cup, he’s going into the Zipping Classic as well as ever. At four goes at 2400m he’s won twice and placed twice, and could reasonably be the outright favourite over Almandin going on form, rather than class. And, if this was a handicap.
Under weight-for-age, he carries 59kgs, the same as Almandin – a 3kg turnaround in the weights from the Cup. That’s obviously considerable and leaves us with a real question mark on how he’ll fare in the race. Both jump from the inside barriers and will be looking to hold a position off the speed on the rail, so they’ll be stalking each other during the race.
Big Duke wears blinkers for the first time – I suspect this is a bit of an overdue trial in a much lower prizemoney race than what he’s been in recently – and I have to stamp him the best chance in the race.
The Taj Mahal is the other horse in the race, an Irish import who’s changed trainers from Aidan O’Brien to the Robert Hickmott/Team Williams stable (soon to be Liam Howley/Williams stable, following news Hickmott is out), and therefore new stablemate to Almandin, as he’ll stay in Australia. This son of Galileo didn’t threaten in the Caulfield Stakes where his then stablemate, Johannes Vermeer, was a flashy second, but he did grab fourth in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes (2000m) last week to show he’s capable.
(AAP Image/Mal Fairclough)
This Galileo horse was running in Group 1s around Europe and the USA before this, and backing up into this race is a big pointer from the Williams team.
Those three are all under $4.
On the next line of betting are both Berisha and So Si Bon. Berisha showed that the Geelong Cup form was accurate into the back-up stayers race on Melbourne Cup day over 2800m, finishing just down the track in both. I don’t think this is easier but he should go well.
So Si Bon is an interesting runner – he was placing in Group level sprints and the Sir Rupert Clarke (1400m) before stepping up further in the Cantala and Emirates Stakes only to finish down the order in both, where not everything went his way. His third-last in the Emirates is much better when you consider he only finished three lengths form the winner, so I think he has upside.
“He just had a swim on Sunday morning and again Monday morning and afternoon and then I had a look at the field and I thought he had the form and he was in the right shape to really give that race a real shake,” Laing told Racing.com.
“There’s no doubt he’s a better horse when he’s got some room to move and he’ll get that at Sandown for sure.”
“I thought his Emirates run in a really good field was excellent to be beat three lengths and the previous Saturday, he just couldn’t make ground and neither could horses like Tosen Stardom.”
He’s a classy animal by So You Think but he’s a place-chance here behind the main three.
Assign is also in the race, another Team Williams horse to make three here. He won the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) this time about last year but has only plugged this season. He’s likely to lead and put pace into the race, and likes the distance, but it’d be a shock to see him win.
Consommateur looks poorly placed in this race even with a mare’s allowance, coming off two six lengths defeats in same-sex races including the Group 2 Matriarch where she was just too far back. She’ll be battling on late but I can’t see her getting a win here.
Dandy Gent is the rank outsider, with just three wins from 36 starts and disappointed in the Kyneton Cup (2000m) last start. The race before that was much better but he should be giving both Almandin and Big Duke about 15kgs in a handicap, and instead goes around at the same weight. No thanks.
Prediction
Ouch, what a hard prospect to tip. The story isn’t clear. Almandin is an eight-year-old stayer who should be in next year’s Melbourne Cup even as a nine-year-old, as this will only be his 17th start after missing two years through injury. He won so well in the JRA Cup over 2500m, then was average in The Bart Cummings (2500m), and went about as well in the Melbourne Cup when many expected him to fire.
Is he going well? Is Team Williams sending him around because there aren’t too many chances left for him at his age?
He just wins based on his best form but we aren’t seeing it. Big Duke, on the other hand, is in career best form and even though he’s not quite as classy as Almandin, just keeps running hard. Blinkers on when back in distance is a little unusual but it might give him what he needs to keep him sharp.
The Taj Mahal looks very very capable – originally out here for the Cox Plate – and is down in weight from his Emirates Stakes fourth.
Tips:
1. Big Duke
2. The Taj Mahal
3. Almandin
4. So Si Bon
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Yep I agree there on the race pattern - of course Taj, in retrospect, had those pace making duties back home but it was a great ride to kick him away, and sustained over 1000m+... I'm guessing he'll get 3200m based on that too....!
Johnybulldog
Guest
Thank you so much Kv,keep them posts coming mate...look what it did for Sarah on the cup! As u correcty said,thats what punting is all about.Take care sir,love your work.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Yes tristan on the money. about 5 pts down off his best yesterday. i wasn't surprised by taj mahal --- just read the race completely wrong. thought they would set the pace up with assign, settle almandin where he was and look after taj mahal behind him. figured TM would have trouble outsprinting big AL. as soon as TM settled a few lengths in front of him ... i thought ooooh here's trouble. my own ratings had TM around WR110/112 and that's why i thought he was a chance in the Emirates last week. those ratings are off Bramelot (French Derby), the Ellipse defeat by Ulysses ans Barney Roy with confirmation through Benbatl. So, i thought the $1mill+ Syd Cup and a few other autumn races were the go where they could make full use of their current discounted OHR 103 (WR106) but that has just been dropped kicked out of the yard. After that win i figure he will get an official bump up towards to my number. My worse read was the Sandown guineas - although that really was a crazy-run race but the winner does look very classy and perfectly ridden by cool-hand-luke.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Almandin wasn't bad but certainly not going at his best.
MAX
Guest
The classroom would be standing room only.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Oliver has a nice book of rides. should give the jockey challenge a nudge. i've never bet a jockey challenge ... don't think i'll start now :-) Tony McEvoy is certainly sending a couple of his promising types for a scale-jump be interested to see where they land. I'm sure Swacadelic ran second to Qwey, beaten a lip in last years San.Cup - he has been going alright - it was his only start at the track ... race isn't that hard ... and probably revolves around the marathon-staying capabilities of G.Chief ...
kv joef
Roar Guru
far too kind with your appraisal JB. remember the 100 year quote from a real genius ... 'Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work'. an education type blog i've been toying with the idea as long as i've written on the roar. it was my main reason for writing here. i could see recreational punters being sucked away in sports betting. the industry was under attack by the gambling-haters and on the other side by the corporates trying to transfer them into their most lucrative profit-centre sports betting. NSWracing was under attack by political undercurrent that was about self-interest and not the industry. they even used that argument against the RNSW board - it was non-sensical and destructuive. i simply thought if i went to war with the negativity and showed players was a fun sport and an exhilarating sport other like minded people would join in. they did. since i was retired but still interested in the sport, the easiest way to get attention was to pick winners. i got lucky a few times. so i may continue the education theme on a blog and post summaries here instead of crashing threads.. i've been encouraged to to it by former associates for a number of years so maybe i will..
kv joef
Roar Guru
Good shout Max with the Hawkes baby. no public trial form? Owned by Spendthrift. american operations are inclined not to race slow ones from their 'barn', maybe they do it differently with their australian arm. But hawkes racing are very particular with their babies and they have chosen sandown for his first public gallop. so they want a good look at him. let's see how he goes ... hope i don't sleep thru the guineas ...
MAX
Guest
Hi kv j, Hypnotist (Snitzel) has been playing games with my mind too. Staying with that theme I examined Peaceful State. The 10's seems unders. ??? Would love to see the jockeys on DK Weirs pair reversed. Finding it hard to find the value runner. Loved Dundeel as a racer and looking forward to seeing Irukandji (deadly jellyfish) in action.
Reno
Guest
Fanatic was super last start... Almandin obviously the one to watch but gee... Hard to have.
Johnybulldog
Guest
Thanks for your thoughts kind sir,I'm in training in rankings systems thanks to you KV...knowledge is king! All the best mate-cheers.
kv joef
Roar Guru
our opinions differ in the main Tristan :-) ... As soon as the noms appeared for the classic, Almandin stood out. I was happy enough with Almandin's Cup effort. He was weighted to his number and when Dettori brought him to the contest at the 250m with a sharp sprint he looked ok but couldn't sustain and began to tire. Dettori did the right thing and parked him. That thoughtfulness will probably help Almandin show-up in this. Big Duke was great in the Cup and seems the hardest but i think the Monsun has them covered. Looking forward to the Guineas, the Carbine form is strong. Not much between Snitzapeg, Beau Geste and Hypnotist. Octobello was good as well. Black Sail keeps improving but has to step up again. His stablemate Villermont is solid in the market, suppose he must be going well in private but not for me. Probably have Beau Geste on top. Has been promising plenty but firing blanks. maybe not tomorrow. but all three are easy to back at current odds. Hypnotist looks a typical Street Cry and looks over the odds - i like him as a horse. Been a bit useless but he'll like sandown. Sandown Cup offers up two chances and i prefer Fanatic to beat the fav Gallic Chieftain. Plenty of value in some of the other races. might append something tomorrow if time allows.
Johnybulldog
Guest
Good stuff Tristan,great work over the spring mate...I'm waiting to hear KV's thoughts.....he's a genius in form!
no one in particular
Roar Guru
This time last year he had Miissrock running 3rd in the Wakeful and 5th in the Oaks, and in 12 starts since she has gone past 1200m once
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I always like to think the trainer knows better than I do, but it is highly unusual. And he does run so well so often!
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Thanks for the thoughts across the day Razzar as always. Good punting!
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Danke Max! I agree that it's a tricky race and we should always remember not to chase, in any sort of investing indeed! :) I look forward to those Donald tips ;)
andrew
Guest
no horse has a worse prep all spring than so si bon. it is quite laughable really. no wonder he has a horse with a high rating who has won only 1 race. i dont think the trainer himself even knows if the horse is a kept fresh run on sprinter, miler or stayer. its the trainers job to work this out, map a program accordingly, and then his horse to peak on the day/race its set for.
MAX
Guest
Hallo Herr Rayner, I respect your knowledge and scholarship and enjoy your opinions. This race is the biggest trap of the day. Too many ifs and buts. Big Duke and The Taj Mahal are debits on my books, but I won't be chasing. The 'Be Careful' sign is stamped on most races. Luqyaa (br13?) and Petition are my only two bets with confidence. Donald on Sunday with Weir/ Rawiller to fill the coffers is far more appealing.
Razzar
Guest
R10 the Mares race, good speed here. Petition does read to get another win here. Had little luck of late. Should be better than most, if not all of these.$3.20 rating Oregons Day looks about only threat, should enjoy a better run here, compared to recent starts. $5.50 rating Miss Gardenia looks to run in leading pack, got fitness on her side, could be cheeky, slight chance of stealing it. $11 rating. G L Punters.