Joe Schmidt must wonder which leprechaun, blarney stone or banshee he needs to kiss.
Having slain the indomitable All Black dragon, buried the vulnerable Boklings, climbed to a lofty ranking and won the respect of the rugby world for his well-drilled and brutally physical squad, he likely faces yet another quarter-final exit at the Rugby World Cup in 2019.
For the unfamiliar, the Irish have appeared in all eight World Cups, made it to the quarter-finals six times, and never reached the semis.
But won’t the world No. 3 sail through to the final four this time? Probably not, I say.
Schmidt will look askance at Michael Cheika’s Wallaby pathway to the semifinals. Australia merely has to build more Pool D points than Georgia, Fiji, a qualifier from the Americas and the team the Wallabies love to beat: the Welsh.
In between each pool match, Cheika’s men get 7-9 days rest.
The smart money will be on the Wallabies to top Pool D and get nine days rest after the Georgia game before fronting France or Argentina in Oita, Japan.
Cheika’s team will be favoured to roll either of these deeply dysfunctional sides; the Wallabies will likely have a fresh David Pocock back, as well as a more seasoned second row with a lethal backline.
It is difficult to imagine Australia failing to reach the semifinals, where they will run into old friends South Africa or one of the Celtic tigers, Ireland or Scotland.
All will be forgotten and forgiven: the rants, the record losses and the negativity.
“Two World Cup grand finals in a row,” he’ll crow.
Schmidt, on the other hand, has to decide whether captain Rory Best can make it to the Cup as a starter, try to keep CJ Stander and Peter O’Mahony from tripling and doubling their IRFU salaries, respectively, by jumping to France, build caps in the midfield, cotton ball Iain Henderson, his three-star props, Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton, not become too predictable, and oh yes … beat Scotland on September 22, 2019, in Yokohama, or most likely face New Zealand in a quarter-final.
There is also the tricky little match against Japan. In Japan. As 100 million countrymen watch.
But even if Ireland beats the irrepressible Scots and tops the pool, they will almost certainly face the Boks.
OK, the polite little Boklings were bullied in Dublin this year, but South Africa is never an easy out in the World Cup knockout rounds.
The Boks have plenty of room to grow, with smarter selections and a new coach.
Ireland may have peaked too early.
And so one of rugby’s more surprising streaks may continue!
Unless Ireland can find their luck.
Cathal
Guest
One big difference this time is Ireland have retained their coach and after the RWC they have kicked on and consistently stayed among the top 3-4 and are noticeably building depth each season. Schmidt can now use their previous RWC experience as a learning curve going into this tournament.
HenryHoneyBalls
Guest
You don't have to beat every side. Where did you get that idea from? Some RWCs the winners haven't even faced the top ranked sides either. When SA won in 2007 for example they didn't play NZ who were ranked 1 in the world at the time. Going into the tournament SA were ranked 3rd and they didn't have to face Australia nor France either the sides ranked 2nd and 4th.
JimmyB
Guest
Wow Ariki, I'm going to assume that you take really long naps. ?
Ariki evans
Guest
mike Cat
HenryHoneyBalls
Guest
Not sure I agree. Firstly there are only two six nations prior to the RWC and the competition is currently stronger that the competition in the rugby championship at the moment. I think one six nations win from two would be a very good result bearing in mind England are currently ranked higher and Scotland and Wales are both strong.
Frisky
Guest
Curious article. I thought the aim of playing in the WC was to win it, not make the semis. If you are going to win the WC, you have to beat every side anyway, so why worry.?
adastra32
Guest
Ireland need to win at least two of the next three 6Ns to be considered a real challenge for the RWC. And as SA could not even beat an experimental Wales side today, they will need something pretty miraculous to be up there in two years time.
adastra32
Guest
Armand failed to make even the long list for the recent internationals. He is a fringe player so might have been expected to be given a chance to prove his case - as others were. Eddie might rate Rhodes but, like Armand, there is a long and growing queue for the back row positions. Barring injury crisis, it is difficult to see either featuring come 2019.
Harry Jones
Expert
This is one of dozens of articles. EJ rates MR. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/sport/2017/sep/08/michael-rhodes-saracens-collarbone-south-africa-bath-eddie-jones
David
Guest
Doing all they can to stop them returning to South Africa? Shouldn't have to do much then ? I know Armand's been talked about but your the first person I've heard mention Rhodes. I think Jones is going after younger guys anyway, testing out the Curry brothers and Underhill, and I can't see Hughes, Billy V or Robshaw being discarded for the World Cup. Then we have to consider Itoje and Lawes can both play on the flank. As much as I admire Armand he's right down the pecking order
Harry Jones
Expert
Could happen!
Harry Jones
Expert
The coaches are all ONLY thinking of Japan.
redbull
Guest
Imagine if Ireland and Scotland knocked out New Zealand and South Africa in the quarters!!
Misha
Guest
Still two years to go to the RWC - lots of water to go under the bridge - I would not predict the outcome just yet - a lot of these teams with new higher rankings have not shown long term consistency before and could well fall away again..Scotland esp; Ireland...Springboks to drop further due to political forced quota system etc
Harry Jones
Expert
That's the spirit!!!
Derm
Roar Guru
Ireland has to beat Scotland and Japan. Although a quarterfinal against NZ would be a better match-up - I’d prefer that.
Harry Jones
Expert
Australia won't face Ireland or Scotland in a QF. If the Wallabies top the weakest pool, they get, in all likelihood, Argentina or France in the easiest QF. The point was that OZ has an easier path to the SF than Ireland, even though we all agree Ireland is a better team at this point. Ireland has to beat Scotland to avoid NZ in the QF.
Harry Jones
Expert
David, I've heard EJ say they're both on the verge, and I know RFU is doing all they can to prevent both from returning to SA. But my main point is made by: CJ Stander, Josh Strauss, WP Nel, Rob Herring, David Denton, Byron McGuigan, Cornell du Preez, Richardt Strauss, Scott Spedding, Rory Kockott, etc.
HenryHoneyBalls
Guest
Hang on you think that Australia will have no problem in a quarter final v Scotland or Ireland? Really? Recent history certainly wouldn't agree. Both Ireland and Scotland have won their last two games v Australia. Ireland won their last world cup game v Australia and Scotland were robbed by Joubert in their last WC game v Australia. Ireland's summer tour to Australia will be a good indicator where the two teams are at. That said as an Ireland fan Id rather get SA as we just hammered them and they aren't going to turn things around between now and the RWC. Ireland are favorites to top the group so I think Ireland have a very good chance of getting to a semi final. Id rather Ireland play Australia in the quarters than England, NZ, Argentina or Wales so for me the draw is pretty good.
David
Guest
Think there's more chance Manu Tuilagi will stay fit for more than 4 consecutive matches this season than there is of either of those two being in England's next World Cup squad.