Having already lost the Ashes 3-0, England could be forgiven for thinking there’s no bad news left. But there is: The pitch for the next Test at the MCG is likely to be flat, again favouring Australia greatly.
While there was constant talk prior to this Ashes about the prospect of Australia’s express quicks running amok on hard, fast pitches, it is in fact on flat decks where the home team have the greatest advantage over England.
We saw as much in the last Ashes in England where Australia destroyed the hosts in the two Tests played on batting-friendly surfaces, winning by 405 runs, and an innings and 46 runs.
In this current series, the gulf between the teams widened over the course of the Perth Test, which featured a pitch overflowing with runs. The rare ability of Australia’s quicks to squeeze every last portion of pace and bounce out of such a surface led the hosts to a whopping win by an innings and 41 runs.
The home pacemen had the English batsmen swaying and ducking and fending and retreating. The English quicks, by comparison, were utterly pedestrian, with their star new ball pair James Anderson and Stuart Broad going wicket-less until Australia already had 549 runs on the board.
As has so often been the case in recent Australian summers, the pitch is a road only so long as the home side aren’t bowling. Then wickets tumble. It’s an odd advantage for Australia to have.
Historically England have flourished on green, seaming pitches, Asian sides have been in their element on dry, turning tracks, and Australia were at their best on rock hard decks.
Nowadays Australia are like Lewis Hamilton – unbeatable on a road. Unfortunately for England, that’s exactly what the MCG is these days, a road. It’s been that way since the last Ashes.
(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
In the three Boxing Day Tests since then, Australia have made first innings totals of 530, 3-551 declared, and 8-624d.
That’s ominous for England, given they just allowed Australia to make 9-662 on a WACA pitch which offered more help to the quicks than any of those past three MCG Test pitches. The only England bowler who defied the batting-friendly conditions consistently was rookie fast bowler Craig Overton, and he’s expected to miss the fourth Test due to a cracked rib.
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That would leave a floundering English attack even weaker. If the MCG pitch is even close to as flat as it has been in recent years, I cannot see how England will possibly take 20 wickets. That’s without factoring in the savage blow to their confidence which was delivered over the past few days.
To bat first and be 4-362 on a great batting strip, with two centurions at the crease, only to lose by an innings is the kind of loss which can tear a team apart. Joe Root faces a major leadership challenge to keep his side from splintering and playing the blame game.
The worst part for England is that, as I wrote yesterday, the four players they rely on most heavily – Root, Anderson, Broad and Alastair Cook – are all struggling badly
Bowling the way they have this series, neither Broad nor Anderson is likely to have a significant impact at the MCG. Cook, meanwhile, has long been a bunny against Australia. Root, with his expansive batting talents, is the one member of that key quartet who looks capable of producing a dominant display.
England’s best hope of competing strongly at the MCG is to bat first, bat long and put Australia under the kind of scoreboard pressure they should have encountered at the WACA. God help England if Australia bat first on an MCG highway.
That will precipitate another lopsided result and place Australia within one SCG victory of yet another 5-0 Ashes whitewash.
Leonard
Guest
If the Germans played cricket, could you imagine this lot of Poms doing the Ashes equivalent of 'fighting them on the beaches . . . and never surrendering' in the 1940s series? (But, our lot were something of a disgrace in February 1942 in the 'Rising Suns' series in the Darwin Test.)
Leonard
Guest
Could not agree more with your "Could not agree more". And is this the other Big Point, that Test cricket is solely for grown-ups?
Leonard
Guest
And judging by the crowd stats below, Aussies will lap it up ASHES TEST CROWDS 2017/18 Notes: (i) venue at least half-full; (ii) no guesstimates for sight-screens; (iii) AO and the WACA have nice grassy knolls with good sight-lines; (iv) 4th and 5th Tests = forecast crowds as marvellously reported in http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/cricket/ashes-summer-cas-delight-as-fans-rally-for-dead-rubbers/news-story/27d7f373f06aaa0d12aea1b27a1fb876 1st Test BCG (c. 42000): D1 - 35144; D2 - 34358; D3 - 33474; D4 - 21535. 2nd Test AO (c. 53500): D1 - 55317; D2 - 52201; D3 - 43088; D4 - 21535. 3rd Test WACA (c. 20000): D1 - 22,148; D2 - 22179; D3 - 20858; D4 - 18688. 4th Test MCG (c. 95000): D1 - ‘sold out’; D2 - ’70-75000’; D3 - ’55-60000’; D4 - ‘40000’. 5th Test SCG (c. 46000): D1 - ‘sold out’; D2 - ‘sold out’; D3 - ‘sold out’; D4 - ‘500 tickets left’. (Statement of happy regret: in another Roar post somewhere, before the First Test, I dissed Queensland cricket fans for not turning up for Test (aka ‘adult’ cricket). I am very happy to have been proved wrong for this season’s First Ashes Test. May I be disproved again on similar posts)
jammel
Guest
Yep - agreed Ronan. England should go Root @ 3 and Bairstow @ 4. Have a go! It won't happen, but Crane (or any other available spinner if on the tour - Dawson or Rashid or someone else should get a match) and Wood should play. Let's see a contest. England should also consider Foakes - and Stokes ! :) If England want to participate in Melbourne, here's the XI for them. Have a go! Stoneman Cook(v) Root(c) Bairstow(+) Vince Malan Stokes Woakes Wood Anderson Crane
Brother Mouzone
Guest
Well said
James
Guest
We may struggle in England, but nowhere near how England Struggle in Australia. Even a mediocre Australian team would expect to win a test or two, I can’t understand how England seem to fold so badly over here.
Onside
Guest
My wife asked me if Roots first name was Dudley.
Ironmonger
Guest
I reckon each of the bowlers has played a significant part - each coming into their own depending on the conditions and batsmen they are bowling too. I reckon Patterson was told - "you bowl short" soften them up, hold an end down, so they swing at the full stuff that Starc or Haze are delivering at the other end. It's been a real team effort by everyone
Ironmonger
Guest
I hear what you are saying, but he is doing neither batting or bowling at the moment...if you replace him with someone who can do at least one...maybe a batter and Root can throw down a few more...
Ironmonger
Guest
I'd take a Root
Johnno
Guest
Starc and steve smith build the momentum and leadership though that others feed of
Linphoma
Guest
Carl, I dare say, Cooked and Rooted can be accompanied by Broadsided (not). Someone is bound to bring up a sledging issue this week to take the emphasis off the actual cricket.
AREH
Roar Guru
Bairstow could probably average 45-50 eventually if he gave up the gloves and moved to 4 or 5 permanently.
Linphoma
Guest
The Barmy Army is here - they can draw from their ranks and no one would be the wiser in performance. At least it would liven the sledging stakes again after a hiatus of a few days. Hey, wasn't this test played so much less fractiously than the two preceding?
Linphoma
Guest
Brian mate, I don't get it? How can you make a whinge like that? Its like my Swedish sister-in-law who laments not having a white Christmas as she jumps into a pool while we're tending the barbie. Try that in Stockholm right now!
Simoc
Guest
But your ratings are as irrelevant as they are wrong. If you watched cricket you would know more.
E-Meter
Guest
Agree. I'll be there for the first day of the Sydney test.
spruce moose
Guest
I've got no beef with it being a dead rubber, but I do have a problem with it being a walkover procession. And I really hope England can be legitimately in the game on day 4, instead of being out of it by day 1, or trying to claw back some honour on day 3/4.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Hi Onside, I've only seen highlights of Foakes keeping, but he is renowned in England as a brilliant, pure gloveman, rather than a batsman who also keeps.
Brian
Guest
Billings & Buttler are presumably both here as well as they're playing BBL for the love of the game