2017 has passed and the 2018 NRL Season is now within sight. If you have not noticed by now, every year two things are almost always guaranteed.
1. The Melbourne Storm will continue to irritate all other supporter bases with their consistent success.
2. The New Zealand Warriors will disappoint.
However, other than that, the 2018 season is shaping as one of the closest in history. You only have to look at the masses of people foreseeing a Top Eight finish for the previously cellar-dwelling Newcastle Knights to realise this.
So, without any further delay, here are my most probably incorrect predictions for the 2018 season.
16th – New Zealand Warriors
The losses of Kieran Foran, Ben Matulino, Ryan Hoffman and Jacob Lillyman have left significant holes in the Warriors’ playing roster. The purchases of premiership-winning edge forward Tohu Harris and former Bronco Adam Blair have somewhat addressed the departures up front while the arrivals of Gerard Beale and Peta Hiku add further depth to an already potent backline.
The signing of Blake Green, however, could prove the most important. It is undeniable that Shaun Johnson has the potential to be one of the best players in the competition. Yet consistency has too often eluded the New Zealand halfback.
Green’s game management and experience should ease Johnson and allow him to embrace his natural talent and ability. In spite of this, much like the Tigers, the Warriors will need to address key flaws within their game from last year in order to be truly competitive in season 2018.
In previous seasons, the Warriors have been branded as the most exciting team in the league. In 2017, however, this amounted for little as Stephen Kearney’s men averaged the fourth-least points in the competition.
Meanwhile, their lack of commitment in defence remains a serious issue, with the Warriors conceding the third-most points on average last year. Will the league’s perennial underachievers finally break the drought and return to the finals for the first time since 2011?
Well it’s the Warriors, so no. Unfortunately, given the quality of this year’s competition, 2018 may be coach Stephen Kearney’s final year at the helm as frustrations grow across the ditch.
15th – Gold Coast Titans
New Gold Coast Titans coach Garth Brennan has enjoyed a wealth of success in the lower grades, mentoring the Penrith Panthers NSW Cup side to two premierships in the past four years.
He also coached their NYC team to grand final victory in 2013. However, Brennan’s introduction to first grade coaching does not get much tougher than the prospect facing him on the Gold Coast.
The enigmatic Jarryd Hayne may have departed, yet Brennan is still left with a side coming off a devastating 15th place finish in 2017 – a result made even more disappointing given that only a year prior the Titans had reached Week 1 of the Finals.
Of particular concern was the Gold Coast’s defence. The Titans averaged conceding 26.5 points a game, placing them as the second-worst defensive team in the competition last year.
With Hayne gone, the recently re-signed Ash Taylor will likely be given the responsibility to direct his side’s attack.
Taylor was highly impressive in 2017, finishing with 18 try-assists from 23 games. Hayne’s absence has also allowed Brennan to make astute purchases which have transformed the Titans into a better-rounded outfit heading into 2018.
The acquisitions of Leilani Latu and Jai Arrow will bolster the Gold Coast’s already strong forward pack while Michael Gordon and Brenko Lee replace Hayne and William Zillman respectively.
Mitch Rein should also offer speed and energy off the bench after solid showings for the Penrith Panthers in 2017.
In 2018, the Titans appear a better team on paper. However, almost every team in the competition seems an improved prospect this year and that unfortunately should see the Titans claim back-to-back finishes in the bottom four.
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
14th – Wests Tigers
It is no coincidence that the Tigers of 2018 appear similar to the Panthers of 2013-2014. Both sides share one, obvious similarity – a coach by the name of Ivan Cleary. Back in 2013, Cleary was at the helm of a Panthers side who were coming off a disappointing 15th place finish the year prior.
The club was in a rebuilding phase following the decision to let go of key men such as Luke Lewis, Michael Gordon and Michael Jennings. Yet, in 2013, the Panthers finished 10th and only a year later, they came within one game of a stunning grand final berth.
Cleary’s success in his short period in Penrith was a credit to his own recruitment.
Cleary did not target big-name players with large price tags. Rather, he opted for men such as Dean Whare, Jeremy Latimore, James Segeyaro, Sika Manu and Lewis Brown – players who were committed to the club and willing to work hard for success.
Fast-forward five years and the Wests Tigers enter 2018 in a rebuilding phase after a 14th place finish and the departure of big names such as James Tedesco and Aaron Woods.
Their recruits for 2018 include Chris McQueen, Josh Reynolds, Benji Marshall and Ben Matulino – players who have not arrived on big dollars but rather bring a passion and dedication that Cleary looks for. Unfortunately, the Tigers will still struggle to improve if they cannot get the fundamentals right.
In 2017, Cleary’s side finished with the second-least amount of points scored, second-most tries conceded, third-most errors and second-most missed tackles – numbers which would hardly fill any coach with confidence. While Cleary’s bus appears to be going in the right direction, patience is needed as it may take a while before it reaches its destination.
13th – Canberra Raiders
After a disappointing year, 2018 looks even dimmer for Ricky Stuart’s men after a devastating injury to hooker Josh Hodgson.
Hodgson’s ACL injury suffered in England’s 20-18 win over Tonga effectively ruled him out from Canberra’s 2018 campaign – a cruel blow given that the Raiders had recently released back-up hookers Adam Clydesdale and Kurt Baptiste.
While their issue has temporarily been fixed by the signing of former Warrior Siliva Havili, the Raiders will still be without one of their most important players in 2018.
Hodgson finished 2017 with a club high nine try-assists while his long-range kicking game was an added bonus. Without him, much of the responsibility for Canberra’s attack will fall on the shoulders of halves Aidan Sezer and Blake Austin.
(Photo: NRL images)
Both players had an underwhelming season last year and Coach Stuart will be hoping the return of former Raider Sam Williams will be enough pressure to get the best out of the duo. The Raiders struggled to close out games in 2017, losing seven games by six points or less.
The Green Machine’s hopes of a Top Eight finish appear slim if Sezer and Austin cannot step up and take charge.
What do you think Roarers? Have I got the Bottom Four right? Stay tuned for Part Two of my 2018 Preview where I will look at the sides set to finish from ninth to 12th position.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
I think people are forgetting Elgey's story. He had a great first year, then does his knee in pre-season. Last year was both his return from an ACL, which often take a full year of playing again to regain prior form, AND it was only his second year - a case of second year blues?? He will be better this year.
Sean
Guest
Did i say Russell Packer was better? No. Ive watched most of the Tigers games. WhenWoods runs hes standing up right looking for the offload which is all well and good. But if he doesnt get that 2nd phase play his play the balls are slower.He was still the best forward we had. But not even close to the best front rower around. The bulldogs will get go forward. But im notsold on there spine at all.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
I definitely do not see the point in dropping Johnson when he is a proven game winner. Sure he can be inconsistent at times but he isn't helped by his teammates who can be even worse. I am a firm believer that a club like Melbourne would be the perfect fit for Johnson to move to if he wants to push himself as their professional culture would be just what he needs.
Jacko
Guest
Id rather see Green or anyone else in the squad and see Johnson in Reggie reserves...He has proven to be useless at running a game fir 5 or more years...why persist when the proof is already there
Oingo Boingo
Guest
Geez Sharon , just use ya real name hey .
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
It is definitely true that those are some seriously good players on their day. But obviously they need someone guiding them around and that's where Sezer and Austin come in or have failed to come in recently. Best of luck for the new season and I think we all agree that Canberra are always best to watch when they are doing well and playing with confidence.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Thanks Mr X. I just think - and maybe this is wishful thinking - that there are too many good players in the Raiders squad for people to be writing them off so easily. Paulo, Papalii, Boyd, Rapana, Whitehead, and Tapine are all test quality. Cotric was rookie of the year. Croker and BJ Leilua have been talked up in the past as possible state of origin centres. They will all be going around this season. But hear what you are saying about Sezer and Austin. And believe me Raiders supporters would agree with you. We need to see a lot more try assists, repeat sets and drop goals from them this year Both halves are really in the last chance saloon as their contracts are due to expire so if they don't perfom they could be gone. Having Sam Williams back will put some additional pressure on them
BA Sports
Guest
You have the stats to back that up obviously. Because 2 different sets of state selectors and a set of National selectors - who do have access to play the ball analytics - obviously disagree with you. Maybe Brookes gets caught with the ball because he is indecisive or slow. Or maybe because the opposition know he is going to get the ball on the last because the former coach got rid of the other two kicking options - the gun five eighth and the representative hooker, opting instead to often throw the right winger into hooker.. So this year they sign an okay hooker and had bits and pieces filling in for the 35 minutes he was off the field every match. Perhaps that had something to do with poor last play situations, and not just Aaron Woods...? Or maybe Woods play the balls are slower on the fourth tackle - because he is having to work hard because he is averaging 5 hit ups more per game than any other forward in his team... Maybe... But you enjoy what Robbie Rochow gives you on the final hit up of the set this year while Russell Packer is counting his money and sucking in deep breaths behind the play...
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
I agree regarding your comment that Manly's pack is underrated. Joel Thompson suits them perfectly. I feel Manly may be missing a bit of punch/spark off the bench though.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
Hey Geoff - as I said earlier, may be a good thing for you guys that everyone is writing Canberra off. They may prosper with little pressure to perform from outside media. As for my prediction, it's based largely off Sezer and Austin as not filling me with much confidence that they can guide this side around and control games well enough to win those 8 games lost by 6 points or less. The Titans and Tigers could both surprise, in particular the Tigers, who I agree have recruited well, but I just rate the other sides above them. The Rabbits are one of the more interesting teams heading into 2018 as they have a great side on paper, especially in the halves and forwards, but have struggled recently. I'm not sure what exactly to make of Souths and I'll go into that in my future article which features them.
sean
Guest
Im a Tigers supporter so I can vouch Woods is not one of the best props in the game. Hes above average sure. But too many issues in his game. The main problem with him is when he runs on the 4th tackle with that style of his where he backs into the defence upright, he creates a very slow play the ball which effects the kicker on the next play. Brooks got caught out plenty of times by this.
sean
Guest
Reynolds 750 k mcquen 400k benji 200k matulino 500k packer 600k Reynolds is prob 150-250k over and packer 100k over. But its hardly that bad. Ivan has recruited players that work as a team. We have a lot more depth this season apart from a couple of positions. Id rather pay the above them 3 mill a year for woods,moses and tedesco.... We also have about 700k left for 1 player if we want to use that much.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Good to see everyone writing off the chances of the Raiders next season and sticking the boots in to Ricky Stuart in particular. If you looked at last season's form you can understand why. Coming 10th after many pundits were predicting a top 2 finish and possible premiership is conclusive evidence of a fail in what was a sad and sorry season. Losing 8 games by 6 points or less last year didn't help. It shows the team was competitive but fell short when many of the tight games were on the line. Will be interesting to see how they fare in 2018. Losing Hodgson is a massive blow. And no Baptiste to replace him places extra pressure on the new hookers recruited to perform. Lots of question marks. Players like BJ Leilua, Wighton, Austin, Sezer and Boyd really need to raise their games to another level if the team is to make the 8. The Raiders could finish anywhere from top 4 to bottom 4. Of the others - I fear what could happen to the Warriors. I think the coach might be punted half way through the season. I expect the Titans to perform a lot better without the influence of Jaryd Hayne and the Tigers could surprise as they have recruited pretty well and they have a respected coach in Ivan Cleary. I reckon the Dogs and Rabbitohs may really struggle and I'm not really convinced by the Dragons and the Sea Eagles. I've pencilled in the Storm, Roosters, Broncos, Cowboys and Sharks as top 8 material but its a lottery among the rest for the final 3 spots in the 8.
Big Daddy
Guest
As opposed to the Burgess twins with the dropsy hands
Greg Ambrose
Guest
The Eagles were in a similar situation in Haslers third year in many ways and Travis Burns was the new 5/8. They improved on the year before with this unproven and as history was to show pretty average 5/8. I'd guess that we will have a better 5/8 than Burns and I hope history repeats. It would be hard to see a great year if something happened to DCE I agree and injuries are my greatest concern every year. One thing will shock the critics in 18 I believe and that is the Manly pack. I said before the start of last season that it was under rated and this year even more so I believe. Don't say you haven't been warned . Looking forward to your next installment.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
I agree with all your thoughts here Larry - all great points. Hodgson's speed out of dummy half is something I forgot to include which is definitely important. As I said earlier, Austin's best skill is his running game and he really needs to use this to his advantage more. Johnson really holds the key for the Warriors. He hasn't been able to find consistency. Once he does, the Warriors may just realise their potential. It must be frustrating for their fans given their roster. As for the Titans, I agree that Elgey needs to step up more, Taylor is great but he can't do it all.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
Hey Larry! My thoughts on Newcastle are more addressing how their issues cannot be so easily fixed by their personnel overhaul. The Tigers probably are missing an X factor player like Tedesco, but I think the team itself and new recruits will gel together well. Unfortunately given the quality of all sides this year it won't mean much in terms of their finals prospects.
Larry1950
Guest
Looking forward to the assessment of Newcastle, I recall there was a really good article done about 12-18 months ago on the failure of clubs that had a major overhaul in player personnel. Can't recall the author but it had all the stats and was really informative. I think the Knights will take a year to settle into a rhythm but they'll cause a few boil overs in 2018, although consistency will be an issue. Not sure about the Tigers this year, they definitely seem to be lacking that X factor player who can get you the crunch wins. Addressed the other 3 teams mentioned before.
Larry1950
Guest
On the Raiders, the loss of Hodgson & release of Baptiste completely throws out the balance of their attack as they used them for speed bursts from dummy half to great advantage whilst Hodgson's kicking game was a bonus. Sezer is solid without being a match winner but Austin is an overrated flake from what I've seen of his whole career. Also, Ricky's 'big is beautiful' mantra has worked against them, there has to be a balance between size and mobility in every team. If Josh Papali gets any wider, they'll be able to use him as the entire Raiders front row in the scrum. Can't see the Warriors finishing absolutely last as they get a huge advantage during the origin period, generally drawing vastly weakened teams. That said, they're a frustrating bunch to follow & I sympathise with their supporters. The Titans are another frustrating lot, as a Broncos supporter I'd back my lot to win the 2018 premiership if Taylor & James moved up the M1. They've got the basis of a good squad but they need more out of Elgey, Hurrell to be more disciplined & fitter plus one or two outside backs to have break out seasons for them to be a challenger to the better clubs.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
I do allude to some of your points in one of my future articles where Newcastle appear... the idea that great signings can't immediately fix long-standing problems... but I won't give too much away there, you will have to stay tuned to see where I have put the Knights in 2018. As for Manly, they have largely the same side as last year, with Green's absence the biggest issue. What happens at five-eighth will likely define their season as will DCE's health.