With just 12 games of the Big Bash League to play before we hit the semi-finals on February 1 and 2, and even though the table looks like we’re in for a tight run home to the finals, it will actually be pretty cut and dry in the end.
Perth, Adelaide, the Melbourne Renegades, Brisbane and Hobart are the five teams with a genuine shot of finishing in the top four, but that will become four within the next week.
The Sydney Thunder, sitting two points behind Hobart and with only two games to play, cannot make it as far as my predictions and guesstimations have worked out.
Currently first and second, Perth and Adelaide will sew up home semi-finals with two more wins each and finish in those same positions. The Scorchers play Hobart and Adelaide at the WACA in their remaining two games, and they’ve got the squad and the momentum to win both.
The Strikers have three games to come: Hobart at home, followed by the Renegades and Perth away. They stuttered in Alice Springs against Perth on the weekend, but they can win their first two games before dropping their final game to Perth (again).
I’m going to come back to the third-placed Melbourne Renegades for reasons that will become obvious soon enough, and skip to fourth-placed Brisbane. The Heat also have three games to play, and though I think they’ll lose the first of them, to the Hurricanes in Hobart, they can win the final two games over the Sydney Sixers (away) and Renegades. This will take them to 12 points, which will have them finish third or fourth.
Hobart have won four on the trot now, and are one of two teams with four games to play, which is a huge help for their chances. Currently on eight points, it’s likely the Hurricanes will also finish on 12 points: they’ll beat Brisbane at home, then lose two on the road to Adelaide and Perth, before putting the final nail in the Melbourne Stars’ season at the MCG. And twelve points will be enough for them to finish fourth (or maybe third), because…
The Renegades won’t will win another game, and thus will finish outside the top four. The way they struggled against the Stars the other night without Aaron Finch, Cameron White, and then Brad Hodge was worrying, and even though they’ll the latter back, they just don’t look like a winning team. They’re set to drop all three remaining games against Adelaide, the Sydney Thunder, and Brisbane, and will stay on eight points.
(AAP Image/David Crosling)
The Thunder will also finish on eight points by my calculations, dropping the first game to come against the Stars, before beating the Renegades in Canberra to finish what has been a disappointing season.
The Stars have been ordinary for the most part this season, and as funny as it would be to see them beaten in the semis again, they won’t have to worry about playing in February. They can win the first two of their remaining four games – against the two Sydneys, both at home – before dropping their last two against the Sixers (away) and Hobart. This would get them to six points and a seventh-place finish.
Which just leaves the Sixers, who I’ve only got pencilled in for one more win this season; their second remaining game against the Stars. A wooden spoon would be about right, for how they’ve played this season, too.
Final predicted BBL table: PERTH 16, ADELAIDE 14, BRISBANE 12, HOBART 12; Melbourne Renegades 8, Sydney Thunder 8, Melbourne Stars 6, Sydney Sixers 4.
Current BBL07 table
The Sydney Sixers have finally broken their duck, toppling the Sydney Thunder in the return leg of the Sydney Smash on Saturday night. It means the Big Bash League table looks like this.
PERTH 12, ADELAIDE 10, MELBOURNE RENEGADES 8, BRISBANE 8; Hobart 8, Sydney Thunder 6, Sydney Sixers 2, Melbourne Stars 2.
Upcoming games
Monday – Game 29: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat, Bellerive Oval: I’d only last week mentioned how tight Hurricanes-Heat games always seem to be, and now that they’ve won the first game in Brisbane, the ‘Canes can win the return leg at Bellerive, too.
They haven’t lost D’Arcy Short to international duty (yet), and they’re another team now preferring to bat first. Brisbane, without Chris Lynn again, just look a little vulnerable.
Tip – Hurricanes. They’re on a massive roll now.
Tuesday – Game 30: Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Sixers, MCG: Only a few days ago, this would’ve been a game I wouldn’t have worried about, but now that both teams have won a game, there is a bit of interest to see what they do with their sudden one-game winning streaks.
The Stars still look a lot better team on paper, but Joe Denly and Carlos Brathwaite have definitely made the Sixers stronger, too. But there is something to play for: this game probably decides the BBL07 wooden-spoon – which I’ve already pencilled in for the Sixers.
Tip – Honestly, you could flip a coin. Stars at home, probably.
(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
Wednesday – Game 31: Adelaide Strikers vs Hobart Hurricanes: After falling in a heap in the Red Centre, I’ve got this as the first step on the way for the Strikers to book their home semi. They’re still a formidable side at the Adelaide Oval in front of a big and vocal home crowd, and this gives them a big boost here. Both times now prefer batting first, so the toss could be really interesting.
Tip – The Strikers really need to win this to start their finals tune-up properly.
Thursday – Game 32: Sydney Sixers vs Brisbane Heat, SCG: By my rough guesses, this will be the game that starts Brisbane’s run to third place on the final standings, and even though they look vulnerable at the moment, I’m banking on them having found a way to get on with life without Lynn.
And there’s no better way to tune up for the semis than against the Sixers. Brendon McCullum and coach Daniel Vettori won’t let the Heat take pink-Sydney easy.
Tip – I’m not convinced the Sixers’ win over the Thunder was a sign of imminent turnaround; Heat.
For those silly enough to be following my tips this summer, you’ll know I’m 15 from 28 going into this block of games. Come for the opinions, stay for the quality tipping!
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Strikers fans will be happy,Hurricane fans less so although they have a game against the Stars to finish with which will probably get them third or fourth.Heat vs Renegades to decide third to fifth.Scorchers vs Strikers to decide top if the Renegades beat Adelaide or not if Perth beat Hobart. So, the sequence as I see it Heat beat Sixers and go 4th with 10pts; Scorchers beat Hurricanes and go top with 14 pts OR Hurricanes beat Scorchers and stay 3rd with 12 pts,Perth stays 2nd; Then,Strikers beat Renegades,go top with 14pts or stay top OR if Renegades beat Strikers,they go 4th,or if Scorchers have beaten Hurricanes, they go 3rd and Hobart drop to 4th,Heat to 5th After that,if Renegades beat Thunder,they could be as high as 2nd,but probably stay 3rd,Hobart 4th and Heat 5th Then,Strikers vs Scorchers for top spot followed by Hurricanes vs Stars,with a Hurricanes win keeping them 4th; Heat and Renegades,with a Heat win maybe enough for 4th,but nah Final four ,Strikers,Scorchers,Renegades and Hurricanes
Joe B
Guest
What start time would enable more fans to attend, i.e. least impact peak hour public transport? Perth start games either 4.20pm or 6.20pm... but the east coast play after 7pm (usu. 7.10 or 7.40pm). If the game started at 7pm, that would have less impact on public transport, and more people could attend. The broadcasters wouldn't be happy though. Still, could be worse, CA could force the Scorchers to play their home final at a neutral ground on the other side of the country just a short drive from the opposition home ground. BBL04 final anyone?
Don Freo
Guest
They are only grade cricketers when the usual crew are fit. I can only assume there are many more for Sydney and Melbourne to call upon.
steamingWilly
Guest
I'm confused with this because their is already a freeway bridge that punters could use. I tend to think that she has been given poor advice from a bunch of public servants.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Bosisto, Inglis and Short have all played first class cricket, I'll give you "grade cricketers" for the others.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I think it was pretty easy to predict how bad the two Sydney sides would be based on their squads. The only thing is that you'd probably have thought the Thunder would be the worse of the two.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Pretty sure you'll find the distance is about the ball tracking tracing the arc of the ball to where it would land if the stadium wasn't there. Hence, if a ball lands on the roof from a really high hit that was coming almost straight down by the time it hit the roof, then it's not as big a hit as one that hits the same spot on the roof from a flatter hit, as the flatter hit's arc takes it further.
Don Freo
Guest
Watson, Hodge and co are now performing occasionaly but not any better than a grade cricketer waiting for his chance. The WA boys are into 2nd and 3rd tier players because of injury etc but the new ones slip in. Bosisto, David, Inglis have all struck a blow this year. Other grade cricketers to be uncovered in BBL like D'Arcy Short, Craig Simmons, Ben Dwarshuis, Andrew Tye have shown that their performances are the equal of many of the aged and the alien.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I get the feeling that players have spent so much time practicing all the spectacular type fielding and completely forgotten about practicing the basics. So they take the screamers over the boundary and things, but drop the sitters consistently.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Khawaja has been it for them. The year they won it was almost single-handedly down to Usman. They've come last almost every other year. Last season, where Usman didn't play at all, Pat Cummins was basically their best batsman. That's a pretty damning of the quality of the batting they've had! Over their history, their quality batsmen have been: Usman - Rarely plays a complete season because of international selection Watson - He's good, but he's getting on now Hussey - Did well, but again was old and pushing his limits while he was there Kallis - Was past it by his time at the Thunder and only ever managed a couple of decent innings in total Warner - Played well in the 2-3 total games he ever actually played for them Gayle - Played a couple of great innings over a couple of seasons Outside the internationals, they've had players like Pattinson, Ferguson, Blizzard, Gibson, Rohrer. None of these guys are going to light up a T20 tournament.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I don't see Hodge, Watson and Hastings as the issues, they've generally performed. The big issue for both the Thunder and the Sixers (though always more for the Thunder) has been the lack of decent hitters and the lack of decent pace bowlers. I certainly get the "contracting the wrong players" line. Surely when you search through second eleven and premier cricket and the like in NSW searching for T20 batsmen, Gibson isn't the best you can come by! The guy struggles to hit the ball out of the circle, let alone over the fence. His only boundary of the competition involved the fieldsman dropping the catch and pushing it over the rope in the process. Blizzard at least tries to hit but he doesn't do it well. They can't afford Patterson and Ferguson in the same side. At least one of those spots needs to be more of a hitter etc. For the Sixers, I think they still have players like Smith, Starc, and Hazlewood still on their books, and they were never going to play a single game. Just completely forget about them and stop pretending they are part of your team and recruit quality players who will actually be available.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I have no doubt that the issue has more to do with poor management than anything else, but these teams certainly don't have the option to do what Perth do which is basically package BBL and state cricket together and hold onto the majority of their stars. As for populations and production of cricketers, yes, NSW do produce more top level cricketers than any other state, and always have, but the players who are good enough to play at a top level don't want to just stay in NSW and never get a chance to play first class cricket, so they will head interstate. And they do. But don't get me wrong, as a Thunder "fan" I do look at their squad every season and lament the poor management that manages to continually recruit such poor squads. I've never looked at it and just been angry that we are disadvantaged in being able to build a decent squad.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Well, the Thunder have come last almost every season except for the one the Usman Khawaja carried them to the title almost single-handedly.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
That can possibly be an issue, with the ability of the 1 team towns to basically "package" deals with their local players. If they can pay them more in their state contract in return for a lower BBL salary then that is an issue. I don't know if it's happening, but there has certainly been talk, especially from WA, in the past, of how they are able to basically keep lots of the group together by effectively packaging state and BBL contracts. I don't know how much it effects things, but certainly the ability for WA to largely build their BBL team around the state contracted players, with just a few additions, has the potential to give them a big advantage over other teams.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
My violent disagreement with you wasn't based on some prescience about Darcy Short. I also had an aversion to tipping the Stars based on their lack of balance at the top.Wright had one good season and was kept on ,Pietersen isn't really value for money anymore. No-one knew how good Rashid Khan would be either.or how bad the Sydney sides would be. The Strikers and Heat are both vulnerable in their next games.Lose those and the Strikers drop to third and the Heat a game out of the four. Then the Hurricanes and Strikers both face Perth in Perth... As a Scorchers fan I am mildly confident of those wins,haha
Brett McKay
Expert
Doctor, I had to go back and see my initial top four guess, and it's not aged well at all!! :shock: "So the way I see it, I reckon Perth, Brisbane, and the two Melbourne sides finish in the top four. These sides look the most balanced, and will either be less reliant on any one player or are well-equipped to deal with unavailability. "Adelaide, both Sydneys, and Hobart look like they’re lacking in a few key departments, and a bottom four finish looms. If there’s a smokey to sneak into the semis, it’s probably Adelaide, and maybe at the expense of Brisbane."
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
I seem to remember tipping Scorchers,Sixers,Renegades and Hurricanes myself.That might be three of four or one of four. As you say Brett,any team can win any particular game,but some teams just win in general.
Brett McKay
Expert
Nah, have faith Bushy. They got two very winnable games to come, of which the tougher of the two (Renegades) is in Brisbane. Even after last night, I'm still reasonably confident about my predictions for the Heat..
Brett McKay
Expert
Yeah, there's a lot of truth in that, Adam, though I might tend to agree with your thoughts on losing to Hobart if the game wasn't in Perth. I think the motivation of sending off the WACA in style will be pretty high..
The Bush
Roar Guru
I'd say after last night Brett that the Heat are probably out of it now.