At what point will the AFL expand again? Will the AFL ever reward Tasmania with a team?
Will Perth get a third team, will the AFL roll the dice again and punt a third team into Sydney and what about Canberra?, will the Northern Territory or North Queensland ever see an AFL team? Will New Zealand ever have a realistic chance of joining the competition?
The previous two AFL expansion teams, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney, are both in areas not considered football heartland, although the Gold Coast would be considered a Wagga Wagga or Canberra-type area where footy has a very good presence but is not the market leader.
My preference would be for a third Perth team and a third Sydney team.
My reasoning for a third Perth team is to utilise the new stadium, reduce the highest membership fees in Australia, increase footy tourism and all that flows from it for the state and deflate or decrease current membership waiting lists.
By way of comparison Melbourne has 85 seat available each week per 100 residents. Adelaide has 55 seats per 100 residents. Perth has just 35, and that includes the capacity of the new stadium, which is yet to see a game.
That figure alone sees Perth as the second biggest AFL market in Australia, yet it is severely underserviced, and even with a third team Perth would still be behind Adelaide according to the seats-available metric.
Moreover, the new stadium will not make much of a dent in the West Coast Eagles and Fremantle waiting lists. Over the course of a year only 120,000 to 150,000 people attend footy in Perth due to member preference selling out games, which is in sharp contrast with Melbourne, where $20 walk-up ticketing is the norm.
If adult attendance is founded on childhood and teenage attendance, the future member bases of these clubs may hang in the balance, with the Eagles in particular seeing a distinct lack of kids holding onto club membership.
(Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
My second preference is a third team in Sydney. Yes I can hear the groans and feel the eye rolls from my chair, but I am obviously not talking about next year; rather in five to ten years.
Sydney is the biggest market in Australia by a fair way, particularly if we include Newcastle, the Central Coast and Wollongong. It has a huge population – around 40 per cent of Australia’s population.
In ten years GWS should be fully established. Grassroots football in Sydney and surrounds has really grown significantly recently, and girls and women’s football has given it another bounce.
AFL in Sydney really is on the up – it has growing competitions across both GWS and Swans zones as well as private schools – and you need to strike while the iron is hot. What’s more, it’s pretty clear that Australian Rules football has a stronger base in New South Wales than at any time in its 160-year history.
There has been some talk of a new sporting complex out at Badgerys Creek. If the AFL was serious, it could turn it into a third AFL ground in Sydney. Unlike Melbourne, in Sydney you need to build a ground near the fans, so a third team in Sydney must play in the south-west to service that region of Sydney.
Another option is perhaps a revamped number one sports ground in Newcastle. However, my money is on the south-west of Sydney. That area is a hell of a long way from Spotless Stadium, which really services inner western Sydney and its fans. Any new stadium in Sydney will of course need to have Spotless-level capacity – there is no need for anything over 20,000 initially.
The south-west of Sydney is the fastest growing part of Sydney, and within the next ten years it will home an extra 350,000 people. GWS doesn’t service that area. The AFL can’t afford to miss the opportunity.
(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Of course Tasmania deserves a team, but logically the north-south divide makes Tassie a very difficult proposition, with probably two stadiums needed.
Canberra probably deserves a team as well and could probably get better crowds than GWS, but it lacks in the sponsorship department. Canberra is a government town with little private industry. The game would have to survive on poker machine money, but is that viable in the long run?
Northern Territory just doesn’t have the population base, North Queensland is a low-density population and Cairns, although it has a strong footy presence like Canberra, Wagga Wagga and the Gold Coast, is not big enough on its own to fund an AFL team and does not have a projected population big enough to make one viable in the long term.
New Zealand is pie in the sky, but there is talk about Western Springs in Auckland as a potential ground in conjunction with cricket. Liz Dawson, who is on the St Kilda board, is also on the Cricket New Zealand board.
So, Roarers, where would you like to see the 19th and 20th AFL clubs?
Ayden
Guest
I Reckon 2nd Western Sydney Team In South West Sydney will be a great idea, like Port And The Crows Play's In The Same Stadium, South West Sydney Team will play in the same stadium with GWS, however, Giants Stadium Is Half in hour Away from Campbelltown, Camden, & Liverpool, so I think their matches would be late I think because it would be a long traffic but Sydney Is the largest city in NSW, in I think Third Sydney Team would likely to rival GWS and Sydney, however, South West Sydney is a werid name, so let's name it Macarthur Instead, In case If The Easter Show is on, like GWS Playing games in Canberra, They can play 3 games in Newcastle (No.1 Sportsground).
Callum
Guest
New Zealand what a stupid idea REMEMBER ITS CALLED AUSTRALIAN RULES FOOTBALL ITS AUSTRALIAN. Tassie deserve a team, Queensland have 2 teams why have more? Sydney have 2 teams why have more? Victoria They dont need anymore teams they only have 2 footy stadiums. All the Victorian teams share between the 2 stadiums. South Australia they also have 2 teams why have more? Western Australia they have 2 teams. West coast won the 2018 AFL grand final don’t bring in another team into Western Australia and Destroy their fans beliefs. Tassie Deserve an AFL team. Everyone goes on about people losing interest in footy in Tasmania These are reasons why. Barely any Tasmanian’s get selected for the afl draft. Select like 50 from each state and 25 from the territories. Obviously theirs No reason to play cause u know that u are not going to get selected. U need to make it fairer. Tasmania want to see an AFL team So if ur a Tasmanian reading these comments get behind this support and Demand and afl team. Cause TASMANIA WE DO DESERVE IT NO ONE ELSE
West
Guest
Ahh - Tasmania had net growth this last year and is economically improving in leaps and bounds. A little northern bias there perhaps.
Republican
Guest
.......Cat the banker? So how does one then justify NZ as being in the mix? Pray tell.........
Republican
Guest
......agree. The NT produce incredibly high quality footy players. They have the pedigree but lack the population sadly..........
Republican
Guest
.......NZ should never be allowed to leap frog real footy demographics. They are already leeching off a number of our domestic leagues at the expedience of domestic options and to the detriment of respective GR. If NZ were gifted a token AFL entity it would be 100% serviced by Australian personnel from the ground up. This would be both disenfranchising to the loyal heartlands of our indigenous code as we'll as abjectly insulting truth be told!
Republican
Guest
.........tongue in cheek surely?
Republican
Guest
......NO, the NT has the highest per cap following of the indigenous code actually, i.e. if you dont count the Tiwi Islands......
Gezbee
Guest
For the afl to be truly national it must have teams from Tasmania NT and Canberra. There is room for one more Melbourne team to relocate to Canberra as there are 9 Melbourne teams in the comp which is way out of whack. Perhaps North Melbourne or St Kilda . Granted there is historical significance but to relocate one more struggling financial team should be a viable option. Tassie should be called Tasssie Devils and be able to use Hobart and Launceston fan base. NT Thunder should be the base for Darwin team and indigenous players could make up its majority it would be fab to see and great for race relations as the number of excellent indigenous players in the sport. It will take a good while for this to happen granted but I believe a 20 team truly national comp would be just brilliant.
Chris
Guest
The alternative would be to revoke their licences or franchises. That would make sense because I don't see why we should entertain businesses that are failing going concerns. In a real world, the receiver or liquidator would be called in or a Royal Enquiry into their practices would be commissioned. Hence, time to stop the financial bleeding!
Chris
Guest
The SANFL & WAFL were in direct competition to the VFL & now the AFL. They get good compensation & support. Yet still some VFL clubs fail. Local leagues here in Tasmania often pay more for players than the TSL clubs can. Insofar as employment goes, check the latest State unemployment figures. Tasmania is less than WA, SA or Victoria. So maybe things aren't so bad here if you care to look at the facts.
Aligee
Guest
The VFA has all but gone, but that was a league in direct competition with the VFL at times with players payed handsomely, a logical look at that situation saw one league overtaking the other, if you look at suburban or amatuer football in Melbourne now it is bursting at the seams. Tassie has a problem with lack of industry and people leaving, people go where work is, everyone you meet says it is a beautiful spot - but that doesn't guarantee you a living, it also means players looking to make some coin have better opportunities elsewhere, good money can be found in QLD, SA and some country locations.
Chris
Guest
I'm not sure if you've really thought through this. Nearly all these places have all the Medical & administrative support structure suitable for top line sports clubs. Orthopeadic surgeons, sports medicine physicians, physiotherapists & the like dont all live in Melbourne.
Chris
Guest
And how have local 2nd tier leagues fared around Australia? WA, SA, VFL teams have have vast sums given to them. Far in excess of what the financial support TSL clubs receive. The TSL requires more travel than the city based SANFL, WAFL, VFL clubs do. Those mainland clubs also have a closer association with AFL clubs so they can operate more professionally. Also look at the history of the VFL/VFA & see how many clubs have folded or amalgamated since the 1980's.So before they were so well supported VFA clubs were failing. Even some VFL clubs have struggled recently. The TSL has struggled because of costs not covered by the AFL & a lack of players coming back from the AFL to help the local game in Tasmania. Its just one way traffic.
Kris
Guest
It is not ideal at all. But it might well be the only alternative for Hobart or Darwin or Albury or Ballarat or Bendigo. Expansion into the smaller cities and regions will be tough because they won't have the support staff and infrastructure.
Kris
Guest
Your jingoism is causing you to misread the intent of my post. It demonstrates a rising youth population in Geelong and a declining youth population in Tasmania. Sometime around 2036 the youth population of Geelong and Tasmania will be about the same - which has implications for the future of a Tasmanian team.
Cat
Roar Guru
Geelong encompasses 918.8 km² Tasmania encompasses 68,401 km² You are comparing a postage stamp to a football field. If course the numbers are going to be starkly different. There is a reason population density is used far more frequently. Tasmania: 7.6 people per square kilometre Geelong: 200 people per square kilometre (It is one of the most populated cities in Victoria.)
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
Yep - no worries - get rid of the propped up clubs. They are dragging the rest down.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
You are comparing apples with pears RA. The other figures are for the capitals only. People do travel far and wide from country areas to watch their side play. It partly explains poor crowds for Port Adelaide when they have unsuitable timeslots for country fans to attend (eg: Thursday night, Sunday twilight ...)
Chris
Guest
FIFO is a short term fix for clubs struggling for money in the overcrowded Melbourne market. Hawthorn have benefitted from a particular political situation in Tasmania where football was used as a political wedge in Launceston. That has now ended with North Melbourne playing at Bellerive Oval. The AFL dont even want this current 2 team situation. If flying in for all home games was such a good idea, why didn't the AFL do it for GWS & Gold coast? Also whats the point of basing a team in Melbourne if it plays no home games their? How much support would it get?