Feeling the heat: Four NRL coaches in the line of fire

The waiting is the hardest part. Like many of you, I find this time of year particularly challenging.

So to help fight the February funk I’m here to offer you a preseason pick-me-up. Part 1 of this season preview series looks at four teams whose coaches are under serious pressure to keep their jobs.

Newcastle Knights

Key additions
Herman Ese’ese, Aidan Guerra, Tautau Moga, Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga and Connor Watson.

Key subtractions
Dane Gagai, Rory Kostjasyn and Jarrod Mullen.

Reflections on 2017
As crazy as it sounds, the Newcastle Knights will look back fondly on 2017. Sure, they’ve collected more wooden spoons than Maggie Beer, but the club took a giant leap forward last season. The only thing they failed to do was win football games.

On the field, Nathan Brown’s youth policy finally yielded some encouraging results. The Saifiti twins continued to grow in both stature and confidence, Danny Levi established himself as one of the game’s most promising young hookers and Brock Lamb’s consistent improvement silenced the flock of critics bleating about his place in the squad.

Outside of individual performances, the Knights were also a stronger footballing unit. Their points per game improved from 12.7 in 2016 to 17.8 in 2017, while their defensive line leaked six fewer points per game. Newcastle were competitive more often and embarrassed less frequently.

Off the field, they finally secured their financial future. After an angst-fuelled courtship better suited to an episode of Dawson’s Creek than an NRL boardroom, the Wests Group and the Newcastle Knights finally consummated their union.

The new ownership removes the immediate threat of the club going bust and allows the focus to be shifted to where it belongs: the footy field.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

Outlook for 2018
Nathan Brown may have survived an unprecedented hat-trick of wooden spoons, but he won’t survive the arrival of Mitchell Pearce.

In isolation, the signing of Pearce makes a lot of sense. Newcastle acquired a 28-year-old premiership-winning halfback with a burning desire to prove himself. The former Rooster boasts almost 250 games of NRL experience and 17 Origins for New South Wales, and he’s only focussed on one thing: winning.

But Pearce doesn’t fit with what Newcastle are trying to achieve. For the best part of three years, the club has pleaded for patience as it rebuilt in the wake of Hurricane Tinkler. There were to be no quick fixes. No shortcuts. Talent was to be developed, not purchased. And Nathan Brown was hand-picked for the task, having more rebuilding projects on his resume than Scott Cam.

The arrival of Pearce changes things. He represents an end to the rebuilding phase, and the dawn of a new era – one in which the Knights will be expected to start winning. Pearce was signed to take Newcastle back to the finals.

If everything goes right for them – if they don’t sustain major injuries, suspensions or drug bans – the Knights might scrape into the finals. But it’s unlikely. Nathan Brown might’ve been the right man for the rebuild, but I’m not sure he’s the guy to make Newcastle great again.

Predicted finish
13th.

(Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Canberra Raiders

Key additions
Brad Abbey, Charlie Gubb, Sam Williams and Craig Garvey.

Key subtractions
Adam Clydsdale, Lachlan Croker and Dave Taylor.

Reflections on 2017
The Raiders entered last season as red-hot favourites to win the premiership. With an explosive attack (1st in 2016 – 28 points per game), an underrated defence (7th in 2016 – 19ppg) and enviable depth, opposing squads were green with envy at Canberra’s imposing potential.

But that’s all it turned out to be – potential. Despite fleeting glimpses of their previous brilliance, Canberra’s performances were less consistent than the price of Bitcoin.

Their attack remained potent (3rd in 2017 – 23ppg) but their form fluctuated on a weekly basis. As a result, Canberra rarely recorded back-to-back victories and finished a disappointing season in 10th position.

So what went wrong?

Canberra were simply a victim of their own success. In 2016, solid club players such as Jarrod Croker, Joey Leilua and Jack Wighton played to their full potential, while Jordan Rapana and Josh Hodgson were the competition’s best at their respective positions. And while their outstanding performances earned the club its highest spot on the ladder since the inception of the NRL, it also glossed over the Raiders’ biggest weakness: the halves.

For the second straight season, the combination of Blake Austin and Aiden Sezer just couldn’t get the job done. Injury and inconsistency again plagued Austin, while Sezer struggled to take ownership of the Canberra attack. Only the individual brilliance of Rapana and rookie winger Nick Cotric saved the Raiders from tumbling further down the ladder.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Outlook for 2018
The Raiders have one of the most stable rosters in the competition. Thanks to minimal player movement over the last few seasons, Canberra will once again field the competition’s strongest forward pack while also boasting several game-breakers along the backline.

Unfortunately, having most of your senior squad signed to long-term deals leaves little wiggle room to mitigate against disaster. And disaster struck when hooker Josh Hodgson busted his ACL during the World Cup, ruling him out until at least August this year.

Just how big a loss is Hodgson? He’s not only Canberra’s most accomplished playmaker, but he’s also one of the team’s hardest workers (second in combined hit-ups and tackles – 947). The loss in leadership and direction on the field cannot be understated.

His absence leaves the Raiders with less depth than a Bernard Tomic press conference at hooker and reliant on Sezer, Austin or new signing Sam Williams to step up as the team’s primary playmaker. Based on their form over the last couple of years, I’d keep Todd Carney’s number on speed dial if I were Ricky Stuart.

And speaking of Ricky, this is shaping up to be a make-or-break season for the Canberra old boy. If the Raiders don’t qualify for the finals in 2018 (and after the loss of Hodgson I can’t see that happening), the club won’t have reached the post-season in four of Ricky’s five seasons in charge.

Much like he did during his stint as coach of the New South Wales Origin team, Stuart has done a tremendous job establishing a positive team culture and putting pride back in the jersey. But the results just haven’t been forthcoming. A fresh approach might be needed to lead this squad back to finals football. Laurie Daley perhaps?

Predicted finish
12th.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Penrith Panthers

Key additions
James Maloney.

Key subtractions
Matt Moylan, Mitch Rein and Bryce Cartwright.

Reflections on 2017
After a painfully slow start to 2017, the Panthers caught fire late in the season. Off the back of a seven-game winning streak heading into September, Penrith progressed into the second week of the finals before bowing out to the Brisbane Broncos.

But the constant chatter and scathing speculation surrounding Matt Moylan tainted an otherwise promising season. Depending on who you speak to, the Penrith captain was stood down after failing to attend scheduled rehabilitation on his hamstring. Or did he stand himself down due to mental health concerns? No, wait, didn’t the coach drop him?

Whatever the case, the speculation and eventual confirmation of Moylan’s departure overshadowed some glaring weaknesses in Penrith’s game. The Panthers missed the most tackles of any team in the competition (855 – 35.6 per game), allowed the most offloads (289 – 12 per game) and ranked fourth in terms of penalties conceded (175 – 7.3 per game).

To a certain extent, these lapses can be attributed Penrith’s youthful exuberance, but defence and discipline are about attitude, not experience. If a team’s attitude isn’t up to scratch, that’s on the coaching staff.

(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

Outlook for 2018
Penrith enter 2018 with a familiar feel about them. For about the third year running, they look like a team that’s still another year away from mixing it with the big boys. The addition of James Maloney to an already potent attack solidifies one of the team’s strengths, but the club has failed to address their biggest weaknesses – in fact, they may have weakened them further.

Despite his attacking acumen, Maloney let through more people than Town Hall station last season, missing a league-high 103 tackles (5.2 per game). He was also the most ill-disciplined player in the competition, chalking up 36 penalties (1.8 per game). Adding a player of this calibre to the competition’s worst defensive unit sounds like a recipe for disaster.

But Penrith’s biggest concern in 2018 isn’t Maloney’s shaky defence or questionable discipline; it’s how they’re going to convince Nathan Cleary to remain a Panther. And based on his recent track record, I’m not sure coach Anthony Griffin is the bloke you want at the negotiating table.

Despite his mild manner and ‘aw shucks’ persona, Griffin has a chequered history in terms of man management. He sensationally sacked halfback Peter Wallace as coach of the Broncos and was rumoured to be the driving force behind Moylan’s departure. Add in the abrupt exit of Bryce Cartwright and the persistent rumours surrounding Josh Mansour and Tyrone Peachey, and Penrith fans have every right to feel a little nervous.

With Nathan Cleary free to negotiate with other clubs from November 1 and his father building a war chest at the Tigers, Penrith need to proceed carefully. Griffin’s freshly minted contract affords him a certain level of immunity, but if Phil Gould thinks another coach increases his chances of retaining Cleary, he won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Predicted finish
Ninth.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

New Zealand Warriors

Key additions
Gerard Beale, Adam Blair, Tohu Harris, Peta Hiku amd Blake Green.

Key subtractions
Kieran Foran, Charlie Gubb, Ryan Hoffman, Jacob Lillyman, Ben Matulino and Manu Vatuvei.

Reflections on 2017
The New Zealand Warriors were a disaster last season. There were times when I would’ve preferred to listen to Michael Ennis’s commentary than switch on a Warriors game. Both their attack (18.5ppg – 13th) and defence (23.9ppg – 14th) were painfully problematic, but it was the way in which they went about their business that disappointed me the most.

For whatever reason, New Zealand play their best football when they just play football. When I think back to the Warriors of old, I imagine the unpredictable brilliance of Stacey Jones or the uncanny offloading ability of Ali Lauitiiti. These guys simply played what was in front of them. But the Warriors went away from that philosophy in 2017.

As a disciple of both Bellamy and Bennett, coach Stephen Kearney attempted to introduce rigid structure into an environment that thrives on chaos. He prioritised completions over creativity, possession over proficiency. And while this approach made New Zealand the least error-prone side in the competition (9.6 errors per game – first), they rarely chanced their arm (7.4 offloads per game – 14th).

Worst of all was their attitude. As a proud and successful New Zealander, Kearney was brought in to solve the Auckland enigma. But after the Warriors reeled off nine straight defeats to close out the season, you have to wonder if he’s out of his depth.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

Outlook for 2018
How do they score more points while solidifying one of the competition’s worst defences? That’s the question I kept asking myself when I considered the New Zealand Warriors. But no matter how hard I looked, I just couldn’t see where the improvements were going to come from.

Some will point to the steady return to form of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck as a reason to be optimistic, but all I see is a reluctant captain struggling to cope with the heavy burden of responsibility. The lure of the All Blacks will be an unwelcome distraction.

Others will point to the timely recruitment of Blake Green as a reason not to abandon all hope. The veteran half is being hailed as Shaun Johnson’s saviour; the yin his yang has been yearning for. But I see a journeyman at his eighth club in 12 years, and someone whose star has been polished by playing alongside two of the game’s premier playmakers.

Or what about the signings of proven winners like Tohu Harris and Adam Blair? Again, I don’t see it. Outside of Kevin Campion and Steve Price, very few forwards have made a successful transition to the Warriors. Most arrive with considerable hype but rarely live up to expectations. I expect more of the same from Harris and Blair.

So where does this leave New Zealand in 2018? Sadly I can think of only one place for them, and that’s at the bottom of the ladder. Despite a turbulent 20-year tenure in the NRL, the club has never been awarded the wooden spoon. This season, look for the Warriors to make history.

Predicted finish
16th.

Stay tuned for Part 2 of this season preview series to find out which four teams are this season’s big pretenders.