How much can the Bombers attack improve in 2018?

The less said about Essendon’s 2016 season the better. Fielding the equivalent of a modern-day AFL X team wasn’t going to yield many results. And yet, after that tumultuous season there came hope.

Following that 3-19, 2016 season, Brendon Goddard (one of the few veteran players who was able to play that year) asked fans to temper expectations about the following season. They had the equal tenth-best odds of making the finals heading into the year and there was the assumption that if they were to make the final eight, the season would be considered an enormous success.

Looking back now, Bombers fans must be viewing last season as a triumph, even if they did falter in the elimination final against Sydney. Winning 12 games, they finished seventh on the ladder while beating three of the eventual top eight sides along the way (and one decent kick-in away from beating the Swans in Round 14 too).

So where did the big change in production come from that led the 2016 wooden-spooners to 2017 finalists?

The answer is probably fairly obvious but here’s a little graph anyway:

Above is the difference in total goals kicked in the 2017 season, when compared to the 2016 season. Essendon improved across the board last year but nowhere more than where it matters the most – on the scoreboard.

Obviously, as mentioned, there really was only one way to go after the 2016 year, and that was up. But even then, this is quite an incredible turnaround.

Consider the difference in goals year-on-year with the plot below:

That’s Essendon way out on the very top left. They scored 200 goals in the 2016 season (last in the league), and improved on that mark by 55 per cent in 2017, kicking 311 goals (4th). The next biggest jump was by the eventual premiers, Richmond, and that was a proportional increase of 16 per cent. Miniscule when compared to the Bombers. (For those wondering, the top right is the ever-prolific Adelaide Crows).

Again, this all comes with an asterisk, as something like what happened to Essendon in 2016 has very few prior equivalencies. Maybe the 1940s during World War II? See – not exactly an ideal comparison.

An interesting tidbit from the data is that Essendon averaged more goals per game against the top six sides than when facing the bottom six teams, so a tougher schedule in 2018 (facing the top six from last year eight times) may not be so likely to impose a drastic challenge as it initially seems.

This then presents the idea that perhaps Essendon will be even more potent in attack in 2018. But where will these extra goals come from?

Joe Daniher kicked the most goals by a Bomber since 2006 last year with 62, good for 11th all-time on that list (Matthew Lloyd holds six of the top ten spots!). The best aspect of this was his kicking accuracy improved from previous seasons (up to 62.5%) and the hope is that this will continue heading into 2018.

By Robert Younger’s xScore stat, Daniher was 17th on the list of best kicks for goal in the 2017 season.

Daniher was responsible for 20 per cent of Essendon’s goals kicked in 2017, a decrease of just 1.5 per cent from 2016, while being the extreme focal point of that season’s forward line.

Now, with the inclusions of Jake Stringer and Devon Smith into the team, what is the outlook for Daniher in 2018?

With most of the top-ten forwards being responsible for around 19-22 per cent of their team’s goals, I can’t see Daniher going higher than this. If Essendon’s midfield improves (which it should), however, the delivery to Daniher should as well, and I can see him pushing the 70-goal mark, as there is really no reason for regression at this stage of his soon-to-be 24-year-old life.

When tabling the top 150 goal kickers of all time, the player’s sixth season averaged more goals more than any other – and guess which season Joey is coming into.

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

As you can see in the graph above, goal-scoring options after McDonald-Tipungwuti begin to lag – and that’s where Stringer and Smith come in.

2017 was obviously not Jake Stringer’s season. Marred by off-field and injury issues, he never quite lived up to the hype following his 2015 and 2016 seasons when he led the Bulldogs in goals (he actually led the team in 2017 as well, but only with 24).

Stringer wants to become a midfielder with the Bombers, and with the team’s midfield last season being their main weakness, it’s not hard to imagine Stringer kicking 20 goals this season while spending considerable time in the middle and taking some of the heat off Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett, as well as youngsters Darcy Parish and Andrew McGrath.

Devon Smith too will be looking to elevate the Bombers midfield while using his pressure skills in the forward line to sneak 15-20 goals himself (he averages just under a goal per game in his career).

Coming from a team like the GWS Giants, who had 11 players kick over ten goals last year, Smith will have more room to shine and though it may take away some opportunities from the likes of McDonald-Tipungwuti, Colyer and Green, I can’t see it impacting Orazio Fantasia from continuing to produce – and hopefully improve – hovering around the 40-goal mark.

All this adds to up an even more potent attack for the Bombers in 2018. Adelaide led the league last year with 354 goals in the home-and-away season and if everything is to go right for the Bombers, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could reach that mark themselves.

Just as interesting are the two teams ahead of Essendon in goal-scoring from last year: Geelong and Port Adelaide. Both clubs have bolstered their own attacks and will give Adelaide a good run for their money as well (and warrant their own write-up).

Sure, it could take a short while for things to mesh in the early goings, but with the off-season additions compounded with the only losses being future draft picks, Essendon should be one of the most exciting teams to watch this season. That’s a sentence many will be loath to read.