It’s a rare event that you get to do a token season preview piece after a season has begun, and this was an opportunity I wasn’t going to miss.
Obviously, this has come about because the Super Rugby season has started a week early in South Africa; not at all because I’ve done this a week late. Nope, not my fault, I swear.
But there is a definite advantage to the timing of this, I’ll admit, because it means that I’ve finally got a look at some South African teams in 2018. With the obvious benefit of hindsight, I must say that what I saw over the opening two games of the Super Rugby season has really just confirmed my suspicions.
Already, it appears that speed is element that all teams are striving for in 2018. Teams that didn’t really play with it in 2017 have been tinkering to bring it into their game this year, and those that did have been refining it even further. Undoubtedly it means some teams will be left behind within the three conferences.
And I also think it will really compress the gap between those mid-table teams. That’s going to make February predictions even harder again, but nevertheless, here’s how I see the conferences playing out in 2018.
South Africa
Finishing order: Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Sharks, Bulls.
I always suspected the Stormers and Lions would be the strongest teams in South Africa this season, and having now seen both teams in action, I’ve only underlined that suspicion further.
The Lions have lost a few players here and there – it still astounds me that they allowed Faf de Klerk to leave and kept Ross Cronje in his, but maybe that’s me – but the crux of their ide that reached the final last year is still there, and there’s a determination about the way they’re playing.
The Stormers are playing a game in which everything they do in the middle channel is to set up for when they go wide, and whereby as soon as they get into the tramlines, they accelerate the exploit what any space may be there. Their speed men are out wide, and that’s where they’ll do the damage. Their trans-Tasman tour starting this weekend can set up their season.
Of the other three, I’m entirely unenthused about the Bulls, the Sharks still look too inconsistent to me to be considered a side that can press for the finals, and I think same applies to the Jaguares, but with one major caveat.
Already, the Mario Ledesma influence on the Jaguares’ scrum is coming through, and they certainly caused problems for the Stormers at Newlands on the weekend. But – and it’s as big a ‘but’ as they come – they must improve their discipline.
(AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)
New Zealand
Finishing order: Hurricanes, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs, Highlanders.
The Hurricanes and Crusaders look obvious top picks here, and I even think that whichever of the two doesn’t top the conference will finish as the top wildcard anyway. Even having just written that, I’m starting to have second thoughts about putting the ‘Canes first.
But I needn’t. I still think 2018 will feel like the one that got away for the Hurricanes, and the off-season news that Chris Boyd has seen that the light at the end of his coaching tunnel doesn’t include a silver fern along the way, and will head to England instead gives the 2016 Champions a huge incentive to add another title to his record.
Of course, though, the 2017 Champions can never be discounted, and I don’t think anyone with any sense would. I know you can’t read anything to much into the Brisbane Tens, but the talent on display two weeks ago, and knowing that plenty of them won’t see Super Rugby game time this year, just underlines what a crazy-good squad the Crusaders have.
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The only issue in predictions like these is that you have to put the teams in some kind of order, and in all honesty, I don’t think there’s much between the Blues, Chiefs and Highlanders at all this year. The Highlanders are a bit of an unknown with a new coach in place, and players moving on. He never got many headlines, but I reckon they miss Marty Banks incredibly, for instance. Someone has to be ranked fifth, and I just think it’s them at the moment.
And that just leaves the Blues and Chiefs, which I could honestly a flip a coin between. How Damien McKenzie will go at 10 is the $64 question. The Blues similarly have issues at 10, with third choice Bryn Gatland likely to start there this weekend, but I’ve just got a funny the Blues are going to run very close this year.
I just think there’s something about a side with Sonny Bill Williams, a couple of Ioanes, George Moala and Melani Nanai there.
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Australia
Finishing order: Waratahs, Brumbies, Rebels, Reds, Sunwolves.
A week ago, I wasn’t thinking about the Waratahs topping the Australian conference, but a combination of the Brumbies and Rebels both stuttering through their trial games, and the ‘Tahs looking pretty slick in their outing last week pushes them ahead, I think.
And frankly, they should be topping the conference with the squad they have. The return of Kurtley Beale and the recruitment of locks Rob Simmons and Tom Staniforth, and outside backs Curtis Rona and Alex Newsome will go a long way toward plugging the abundant gaps in their game last season. A team with that many players with international experience should be standing out at this level, and the Waratahs should embrace the pressure.
The Brumbies are still well-placed, but the trials have highlighted that they’re still working on a few combinations. A Rob Valetini-Tom Cusack-Isi Naisarani backrow feels so obvious to me, yet I’m not completely confident that’s what will run out in Tokyo this Saturday. I could flip a coin for the no.10 jersey.
The Brumbies aren’t far off, but I don’t think they’re quite the assumed conference-toppers they were thought to be just yet.
And nor are the Rebels. With so much change in an organisation in so little time, it’s not entirely surprising that things haven’t quite clicked on the field as well as the training track. I thought they would be a big shot of topping the conference with the talent available, but I have wound that back a bit now they’ve played a few games – and I know you shouldn’t over react to trial results, but two 50-point losses are hard to ignore.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
I hope the Reds and Sunwolves both prove me wrong in placing them down the list, but it’s more a case of the unknown that drives it. We just don’t know how the Reds’ ‘all-in’ approach to backing youth will play out when it most matters, and it’s just hard to know anything about the Sunwolves, full stop.
On paper, they certainly appear to have added some forward bulk, but the proof can only come when they run onto the field. The mighty Moondogs cannot afford another season battling in Super Rugby, and though I fear they might, I hope they don’t.
Wildcards
The biggest change around Super Rugby is obviously the move back to three conferences, with which comes yet another Finals format. Fortunately, even the casual followers will be able to follow it this season, with the conference leaders occupying the top three spots and earning a home quarter-final, and then the next best five teams following in behind irrespective of where they’re from.
The best of those five wildcard sides will claim the fourth and final home quarter-final. But who will they be?
Well, I’ve already pencilled in the Crusaders as one, and the Lions and Brumbies will take two more. They seem reasonably obvious at this still-judging-off-named-squads stage. The last two spots are a little harder to pick.
And that’s because I think the Jaguares, Blues, Rebels and probably the Chiefs will be fighting out for them and separating close teams becomes a gut-feel thing.
I could make cases for all of them, but in the end, I just think the Jaguares and Rebels have too much to play for, and too much motivating pressure to not qualify this season. Both sides – as do the Blues and Chiefs, obviously – have too much talent to languish mid-table, and so I’m expecting 2018 to be their year.
Wildcards (4th to eighth): Crusaders, Lions, Brumbies, Jaguares, Rebels.
Force4good
Guest
The Rebels shouldn’t even be in the competition and it’s just demoralising seeing most of the ex Force players lining up for them. A perfect metaphor for the utter mess RA has made of our once great game, shrinking by the year. We wish the ex Force guys all the best individually but like many others will be switching off SR now. And crossing our fingers Twiggy and World Rugby can help save the game in Oz...
Loftus
Guest
I will be very surprised if the Jags and Rebels get anywhere near the play offs. Chiefs and Sharks rather.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Thanks for this. Something is going on behind the scenes, that much is sure. My guess is that Sanzaar is desperately trying to create a strategy document (that they should have done many many years ago and been public knowledge) that somehow both cover up their past mistakes and keep all possible options open for the future. Sadly, I think they are in the dark and have no idea what direction they should gravitate towards. And you, Twiggy and rugby in WA pay the price for that.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Blues by plenty! ;)
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
I hear you MitchO, and I put things on a pedestal here. But since all teams look great in February, had great pre-seasons, great new coaches et al, we have to get into the finer details to find any point of difference. And If it sounds like I am trying to come down on the Force, I am sorry. Not my intention. Just arguing that the Force was the second best team in OZ last season, not the best.
MitchO
Guest
I didn't look at the starting 15 like that Fionn and that looks pretty close. But we are hoping that Parling has what it takes to be a starter. Timani has to work hard to get a start ahead of RHP and Gus Cottrel. All backrowers will be under massive pressure from Hardwick (although Mafi will keep 8 unless injured). Matt Philip will push very hard to start at lock and may also push for 6. I think more than once this season we are going to see Wessels go for that really tall lineout that he used a few times at the Force. So Timani dropped for RHP or Phillip at 6 to go with the two locks and Mafi at 8 and if the hooker throws okay that'll be a real weapon. Bill Meakes will push hard for a spot at 12 or 13 - both of which he can play. Meakes does defend pretty well. I read this morning that Nick B sees Hodge as a potential 12 which means he is the Rebels best 12. Can English play 12? - because Hodge is better is than Meakes which leaves Meakes and English to fight for a spot.
Ex force fan
Guest
The difference between the Force and Brumbies was a late yellow card to RHP after the 70th minute when the Force was still in front. If the Force played the Brumbies later in the season when their combination started to work and they developed a line-out maul they could have won. My point is that the differences between player at the elite level is small.
MitchO
Guest
Hi NV I think seasons as well as matches can and do come down to moments. The deciding factor between the Force and Brumbies was the head to head. The Force were undermanned last year. If they put their best 23 on the paddock they were still going to be a mid level at best albeit capable of winning some games. The Force and ACT forward packs were very evenly matched. The Force a bit weaker in the backs or didn't have enough backline cover without the first choice guys. They ran close with the ACT. Part of the difference in our view points is that I didn't watch many away games of the Force and not many of the Brumbies games. Still have to defend the memory of a fair weather team. The Force weren't that. They had good spirit just not enough talent and the scrum lacked consistency which is about concentration. Too many young guys I think was the problem.
Akari
Guest
Yes, and my bad for phrasing the question wrong. Ok, I had Mooney as Dumper for some reason.
Akari
Guest
Just saw the Blues/Landers team lists on Stuff today with Collins starting with no pre-season form and Nanai on the bench. Not an impressive front row with Ofa, Parsons and Alex Hodgman starting. If my memory serves me right, Hodgman is a penalty magnet. I was leaning towards the Blues until the team was announced. I think Tana has got it wrong with some of his selections to start the season. That Landers team, on the other hand, looks strong and it's good to see Liam Coltman back and on the bench. I wasn't a fan until about 2-3 years ago when he showed that he is ABs material. I think Mauger has got it right to play Rob Thompson at 13 as he has an annoying habit of hogging the ball when in attack and the try line begging with Tei Walden at 12.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Coaches should have an interest an input in the S&C. But they should be leaving it to the professionals. If Thorn is going to be a good coach, it will be because he leaves S&C to the coaches, and merely tells the S&C coaches what he wants to see improved in the players (e.g. recovery time between efforts, time taken to get up and re-align, etc.).
Charlie Turner
Guest
I thought S&C fell to a qualified trainer in professional organisations (this is the Reds I know). All the coach should be doing is telling the trainer to get them fitter. I'm always amazed when coaches say the players aren't fit enough given modern GPS tracking systems, club gyms and dietitians. I could be wrong but I'd wager the Reds were probably fit enough but lacked heart at the back end, something Thorn is about to learn when his NRC boys step up to the next level.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I don't get why the Reds will be very fit under Brad. What are his S & C qualifications? He was running S & C sessions last year and the Reds were nowhere near fit.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
I’d find a way, if I was an Aussie. Toomua’s loking very good at at Leicester. I think he would really energize the WB backline and take a lot of pressure off Foley.
Ex force fan
Guest
Maybe the ARU/RA is afraid that the Force will be successful in the IPRC proving that their decision to axe the Force was wrong. Will Clyne survive that? Doubt it. The ARU shortsighted decisions are not only impacting WA but slso China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Fii and Samoa. Twiggy says he will go ahead with or without ARU/RA endorsement illustrating how much control the ARU/RA already lost with their bickering.
Es force fan
Guest
Why they do it? Simple, they do not want to be proven wrong as they know their decision to cut the Force was dumb. At that time there was not valid reason: they knew that Twiggy was prepared to adress the financing issues and underwrite the Force, that he planned to address the player depth issue by luring players back to Australia and that if they Force is cut he will put his considerable financial backing to develop a competitive competition - but Clyne's ego got in the way. Pulver and Clyne came up with a real bad financial deal for the ARU/RA to prop up the Rebels that will continue to cripple to ARU/RA for years to come. Now this cash strapped ARURA have a "plan" to maybe one day expand the NRC into Asia and use that unrealistic scenario as an excuse to derail the IPRC. With World Rugby's backing, Twiggy made it clear that the IPRC will go ahead with or without Clyne and kie's backing. The ARU/RA is backed into a corner and is realising their mistake and losing control over WA. Clyne is desperate to ensure that the Force will not rise up again. I have no symphathy for the ARU/RA, they told the WA rugby community that do not deserve to even watch a Superugby match or test match in 2018 (zero professional rugby this year), they treatened even to cut us from the NRC, told us suck it up, they did not even try to offer an alternative, explain themselves to the players or supporters or even try to softening the blow. They split the country in two those that will play in or follow the predictable but tired Superugby competition (as this article illustrates) and those that will follow the new IPRC that should at least be interesting and hopefully entertaining. It is not ARU money, it is not ARU players, the ARU do NOTHING to make the IPRC and do not represent WA rugby anymore as there no WA representation on the ARU/RA. The ARU/RA is just in the way - at the cost of rufby not only WA but also Pacific Islander and Asian nations. Clyne's ego is again in the way.
ScottD
Guest
I am picking the Rebels to be at the bottom of the Australian teams in the first half of the season but to win more games than any other Ausdie team in the 2nd half.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
EFF If you try to ignore your emotions and your dislike of RA, why are RA doing this? What is their angle? Is it more complicated than we might think? Try to answer with a cool and calculating head. As you might know, not only RA is in trouble, Sanzaar is in trouble too. The new broadcasting negotiations are about to start and it does not look good at all for Sanzaar. I want rugby to thrive in WA, I want Twiggy to be involved in Australian rugby, I want solutions and visions for the future. Just wanna make that clear, so you understand that I am not coming/asking with any bad intentions. Just want to understand this mess.
Ex force fan
Guest
And on a land far far away from East Australia, the ARU/RA is still trying to kill the IPRC..... World Rugby already said they support the competition, it is only the ARU/RA that is still getting in the way, realising that the lost control and influence over rugby in the West. Do we need to remind you ARU/RA that you do not care about WA rugby as you made so clear in 2017. Of course the roar has absolutely nothing to report - no surprise here! Maybe you should take your own advise Roelene.... "draw a line in the sand and move on". Let Twiggy do what you failed to do, develop a future for WA rugby players. https://thewest.com.au/sport/western-force/indo-pacific-rugby-championship-awaiting-rugby-australia-approval-ng-b88751638z
Boomeranga
Roar Rookie
It's a pretty exciting group I think. Add Ready, Gunn, and maybe, finally, hopefully, CFS, they could go well. Good luck to them. I'll be cheering them for a clear ... second place.